'The War in Syria /Iran and the Lessons to be learned from war in Iraq' [Henry Kissinger © Bloomberg]
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7 Aug 2012 Bloomberg
[Aren't there lessons to be learnt from Iraq? There was chaos!]
We absolutely must not have breakup of the existing governmental structure. And the breakup of the Army. Ideally one creates a new government, has an international conference bringing all the parties together. But they've just been killing each other for years. So the probable outcome is a civil war. The danger of that....is that terrorist cells form in regions without real governmental control so there is no international responsibility. And in order to overcome it there is a combination of Nationalism and Islamism. Even countries like Turkey will be very uneasy about an autonomous Kurdish unit in Syria, maybe formed in Iraq. This is a very difficult problem. It can't be solved by democrats on one side and a dictator on the other.
[What countries should be involved?]
Russia, US, Turkey, China no China....Jordan is not strong enough to guarantee anything. Ultimately if we could come to an understanding with Iran on the nuclear issue one could include Iran.......but what is that agreement supposed to do? It is supposed to make Syria uninvolved in all the quarels going on around its borders, not attempt to dominate Lebanon. So the dilemma that arises is you can do it with a strong Syrian government. But with a weak government there is a danger that the various constituent elements will reach across the borders and cannot be controlled by the central government.