02-15-2013: 2012DA14 -- The Facts

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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 12:41 am » by Chronicnerd


Before anyone gets frothy on this one, and in the event that some folks didn't know about this particular asteroid that will pass within 12,000-16,000 miles from our Earth's surface on 02-15-2013...

This is the "low down" on 2012 DA 14:
Image
Asteroid 2012 DA14 will come within Earth's Mid Range Orbit Field
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46647666/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/mid-size-asteroid-wont-hit-earth-nasa/

~According to the official's they claim the Asteroid will not hit Earth, however there is more information that is needed to be known about this asteroid.~
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There are some unanswered questions everyone should be asking:
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1.) What chance does a 45 meter (1 meter = 3.2808399 feet) or 147 foot diameter asteroid have of hitting one of our satellites?
2.) What satellites orbit the Mid-Earth Orbit field?
3.) Could a collision with another smaller object (smaller asteroid and/or one of our satellites) nudge the asteroid enough to push it close enough to fall below the escape velocity vector required to keep the asteroid from eventually spiraling into Earth*.

*Note: As an an object enters a gravitational field of a larger object there is a specific distance in which the object's current velocity vector will no longer be able to break free of the larger mass bodies gravitational field which is a minimum escape velocity equation that I might try running the numbers on and will send them.

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From Nasa's Site:
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http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news174.html
"Its orbit about the sun can bring it no closer to the Earth's surface than 3.2 Earth radii on February 15, 2013."

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Distance/Math Confirmation:
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1 kilometer = 0.621371192 miles
1 Earth Radii = 3,959miles
3.2 Earth Radii = 3.2 X 3,959miles
Total Minimum Distance: 12,668.8 miles from the Earth's surface.

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Perspective Check: Earth's Satellite Orbit Distances
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Reference:http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OrbitsCatalog/
1.) High Earth & Geosynchronous Orbits: >= 42,164km or 26,199miles from Earth's surface. **
2.) Mid Earth Orbits: >= to 2,000km/1,242.74mi and < 42,164km/26,199mi **
Low Earth Orbit is between 180km and 2,000km

**Note: The ** denotes the 2012 DA14 will pass through the orbital field on/around 02-15-2013. Many world governments have commerical and ~military~ satellites in the mid to high Earth orbits.

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Size Check: How big is a 45m/147ft diameter Asteroid
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http://www.eg.bucknell.edu/physics/astronomy/astr101/prob_sets/ps10_soln.html
Average Asteroid Density: 2800 kg/m3. (they do not know density as asteroid is too new)
Volume of Sphere ((4/3) · π · r3): 14.899 kg/m3
Rough Estimated Mass of Asteroid = 41,692kg or ***41.69 Tons***

***Note: Weight comparisons
1.) Man Average: 170lbs (0.085 tons)
2.) Car Average: 4,000lbs ( ~ 2 tons)
3.) Elephant : ~8,0000lbs ( ~4tons)
4.) Average 18 Wheeler: up to 80,000lbs (40 Tons at maximum load with special permit)
The Asteroid could potentially be as large and about as heavy as a 40 Ton maximum load 18 Wheeler.


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Speed Check: Average asteroid velocity
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"An asteroid has an average orbital speed (how fast an object orbits the sun) of 25 kilometers per second."
-Reference: http://www.brighthub.com/science/space/articles/64710.aspx
Kinetic Energy Formula: 1/2mv2
2012 DA14 Estimated Kinetic Energy: 0.5 * (~41,692kg) * (25,000 m/s) = 521150000 Joules

(=or=)

521.15MJ (Mega Joules)
"The megajoule (MJ) is equal to one million (106) joules, or approximately the kinetic energy of a one-tonne vehicle moving at 160 km/h (100 mph).
Because 1 watt times one second equals one joule, 1 kilowatt-hour is 1000 watts times 3600 seconds, or 3.6 megajoules."
-Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joule#Megajoule

(=or=)

512 1 Ton Vehicles moving at 100 miles per hour with an initial impact radius of ~150 square foot space...


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Simulation Check: Various Degree of Entry Tests
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Source Simulation Site: http://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/
Simulation Settings Use:
Density: 3000 kg/m3 (dense rock selection)
Size: 45 meters
Impact Distance: 0.1km
Impact Angle: 20 to 40 degrees (~estimated minimum/maximum angle of entry boundaries~)
Speeds : 11 to 70km/second (~estimated range of potential speeds~) used 35km/second as average.
http://www.cartage.org.lb/en/themes/Sciences/Astronomy/Solarsystem/TheSolarsystem/meteors/MeteoriteImpacts/MeteoriteImpacts.htm

--All simulations ran had the asteroid fragmenting at around 60,000 meters, the asteroid "bursting/exploding" at around 10,000 to 20,000 meters from the Earth's surface with large fragments traveling roughly 21.2 to 12 km/s in random directions.

--The wind velocity from the fragmentation "burst" explosion would create a gust of downward moving wind that could range from ~22.4m/s(50mph) to 101m/s (227mph).
The energy released from the fragmentation burst under all scenarios would be equal to 20.09 Mega Tons of TNT (any airplanes in the region would be certainly in trouble).

--The sound of the explosion would range from 80db to 94db (might cause ear pain)[/list]

Potential damages from air blast of explosion for anything within 1km radius of impact point:
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.
Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.
Glass windows will shatter.
Up to 90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.

Potential damages from air blast of explosion for anything within 10km radius of impact point:
Glass windows will shatter.
About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.

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Final Assessment:
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2012DA14 Currently is estimated to be traveling fast enough and in a trajectory that currently places it no closer than 12,668.8 miles from the Earth's surface. This places the asteroid well within both our high and medium orbit rings where we currently have many satellites and parts from rockets flying around:
Image
http://www.geosats.com/spacedebris.html


Of which the High (Geo orbit) is *primarily* military satellites (366) and then only 56 known satellites within the high and medium orbit regions. According the the above article link, the most dense region of "space junk" is held within our low earth orbit field. However, this junk either migrates out to the outer orbit regions or falls back to earth.

Between February 12th to the 15th, if 2012DA14 is somehow perturbed from its current trajectory by a relatively large object (10m+) that is traveling at the common velocities of debris/satellites within the medium to high orbit regions then even a slight deviation from such a close object could cause it to enter at a ~roughly calculated~ 20-30 degree angle as discussed in the simulation review section.

If such an event where to occur *and* the asteroid's final point of fragmentation "bursting" resides over any populated areas then the above simulation averages can be used to get a ~rough~ idea of what it could do to a populated area.****

****Note: The simulations ran all heavily depend upon the currently unknown variables about 2012DA14's composition and velocity. Variations in these values could increase or decrease the over-all effect of the asteroid. There are scenarios where an object could impact 2012DA14 and its angle of entry is < 20 degrees in which case the end results would be negligible to ground based objects but could pose a threat to air traffic. There are also other unknown scenarios where a military or commercial satellite could get hit and the implications this might have.


While there are still a *LOT* of unknowns, this one asteroid is within the "dangerous" range and with the amount of random space debris flying around there is a possibility that a collision and/or other external force (CME and High Speed Coronal Hole Streams emit dense energetic mass particles that can nudge smaller bodies) could nudge it enough to cause 2012DA14 to fall towards Earth.

Again...there is a *very* low chance (as best as I can tell...there are way too many unknowns to be 100% sure) that 2012DA14 will cause any issues...however it might be good to keep an eye on the 2012DA14 keyword search as well as various astronomy sites to just make sure it hasn't adjusted.

If I find out more information will post...

Cheers,

-CN

:peep:

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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 9:58 am » by Flipper


From what I have been reading about antipodal point earthquakes and the rise of active volcano's, add to that the weakening magnetic field. Then all the other weather extremes that are occurring around the planet also the chance of a kill shot from the sun. Why not add the possibility of this asteroid impacting Earth. Which I do not believe it will.
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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 10:04 am » by Slith


Flipper wrote:From what I have been reading about antipodal point earthquakes and the rise of active volcano's, add to that the weakening magnetic field. Then all the other weather extremes that are occurring around the planet also the chance of a kill shot from the sun. Why not add the possibility of this asteroid impacting Earth. Which I do not believe it will.

I'm curious about how earth's gravity will affect it's trajectory for it's next pass
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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 10:31 am » by Flipper


Slith wrote:
Flipper wrote:From what I have been reading about antipodal point earthquakes and the rise of active volcano's, add to that the weakening magnetic field. Then all the other weather extremes that are occurring around the planet also the chance of a kill shot from the sun. Why not add the possibility of this asteroid impacting Earth. Which I do not believe it will.

I'm curious about how earth's gravity will affect it's trajectory for it's next pass


Where this asteroids track is theorized to pass, Earths gravity's impact on it is going to be very minimal. Unless the trajectory of the asteroid ends up being at an angle where our gravity will have more effect on it. You have to add into the equation that the sun has way more impact on a asteroids path than the earth does. It can change the path either way. In a lot of ways it is near impossible to predict if it will be on a collision course until the astronomers locate it on its return journey. I hope that makes sense.
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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 10:35 am » by Slith


:flop:
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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 11:49 am » by Richc


Its not big but big enough to destroy a city.

Would be a good time for tptb to nuke a city and blame it on DA14.. :flop:

Would be interested in seeing how much mainstream media coverage it gets before 15th Feb.

RIK
"Theres A Storm Coming!"

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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 4:15 pm » by Shaggietrip


Great post and thoughts to ponder. So many things to take into account. There is a lot out there in the geosynchronous ring. Very hard to say what will happen.

Correct me if I am wrong but will the Sun not be in a position to perhaps help push it away is a large cme does happen? I am not saying that a CME could in fact easily just push it out of orbit. Just nudge so to say.

If it does pass by with out incident it will be interesting to see how much Earth does effect its trajectory. I have had a few people ask me about this asteroid. Thank you for this info. Saves me time in research. I trust your opinion better than mine anyway. Great to see you about.



Looking forward to updates as you post them. Stay well CN :cheers:
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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 5:27 pm » by Shaggietrip


I will add this. Good talk with Planetary scientist Daniel Durda . 1st ten minutes are thoughts on DA14. Then some others of interest.



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I will not flood or thin out this thread with lame items. I just thought this had merit and straight to topic.




:cheers:
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PostSun Jan 06, 2013 6:08 pm » by Flipper


If Daniel says it won't hit earth I sure won't be worrying at all. He is the closest thing to an idol for me in this field.
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PostMon Jan 07, 2013 9:14 am » by Chronicnerd


Yep... as long as nothing pushes or pulls the asteroid or collides with it or nudges it...

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The simulations I cobbled through quickly followed these assumptions:
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The Asteroid would enter between a 20 to 40 degree angle.
The Asteroid entrance velocity would be 35km/s.
The Asteroid density would be 3000 kg/m
The Asteroid diameter would be 45m


In the end there were a few interesting relationships for "quick point of reference" guess work:

The lower the degree of entry the higher the impact and less wind blast...making 20 degrees nothing to really worry about.

The upper 40 degree threshold is really more like anything around 32-34 degrees on up to 90 degrees would fragment burst at around 10,000 feet to 12,000 feet and would produce winds of no less than 187mph winds...

A high end scenario of 65 degrees with a 75km/s entrance velocity would yield ~340mph wind from 1km to 10km and it wasn't until around 30-40km that only your windows would shatter and roughly 30 percent of your trees would be flattened.

Anything within the 1km range from 20 to 40 degrees would have windows shattering, ear discomfort, and structure failure if not complete collapse as you hit the mid to high 30's.



So... really I am pretty sure them folks at NaeSaw R smart fellars....

I was merely pointing out that a relatively small piece of debris or several small pieces of debris could send it Earth bound...as it is going to be well within our mid-Earth orbit region.

Its all a crap shoot... when you don't know all the variables... it formulates down to guessing and perceived probabilities that are based on our very young education/understanding of our Solar Systems orbital patterns around the Galaxy.

So...really anything could happen...

:sunny:


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