2010X1-ELENIN - TAIL DISCONNECTION EVENT

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PostThu Sep 22, 2011 8:41 pm » by Djpakkal


tuor10 wrote:
chronicnerd wrote:There are some speculations right now...
However:
http://www.disclose.tv/forum/world-leaders-will-be-in-recess-during-elenin-alignment-t59447.html
This post is showing world leaders to be in "recess" this weekend...right around when the TDE (Tail Disconnection Event) could potentially occur...

Dunno...this is getting a little "too coincidental" at this point...

:peep:


I can't speak for other nations, but the recess in Britain happens every year.
Most bicameral systems of government have up to 4 annual recesses a year, ranging from a few weeks to a few months.


what about those training stuff in denver ??

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PostThu Sep 22, 2011 8:45 pm » by Ufosarus


very interesting to say the least :think:
lets just see what happens.

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PostThu Sep 22, 2011 8:50 pm » by Tuor10


djpakkal wrote:
tuor10 wrote:
chronicnerd wrote:There are some speculations right now...
However:
http://www.disclose.tv/forum/world-leaders-will-be-in-recess-during-elenin-alignment-t59447.html
This post is showing world leaders to be in "recess" this weekend...right around when the TDE (Tail Disconnection Event) could potentially occur...

Dunno...this is getting a little "too coincidental" at this point...

:peep:


I can't speak for other nations, but the recess in Britain happens every year.
Most bicameral systems of government have up to 4 annual recesses a year, ranging from a few weeks to a few months.


what about those training stuff in denver ??


What about it?

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PostThu Sep 22, 2011 10:38 pm » by Chronicnerd


***UPDATE***
The X Class Flare (Rated at around a X 1.4) could deliver a potential glancing blow to Earth. This comes from the ISWA model just released:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20110922_140000_anim.tim-den.gif
(sorry too big to post...have to view it in another tab)

The edge of this CME will deliver a glancing blow to Earth.
Unfortunately, it looks like it will impact 2010X1 almost head on...which could cause a TDE event... I estimated it could take upwards of 2-3 days for the disconnected portion of the tail to arrive...which would land it somewhere around the 26th to 27th of September range...

Here is a video from NASA's site that shows how a CME, coupled with the Sun's magnetic field bands, can *pinch off* a chunk of the comet's tail. The tail looks to be absorbed into the CME and then continue to move in a "generally same" direction it was pointing at the time of disconnection:


Either case... the XRay graph looks like it is about to spew out another flare:
Image
This link is a live link...it will update with the most recent XRAY plot...so you can refer back to this particular post or just view it directly from the image link in a separate page and refresh it:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/XrayBL.gif

I will keep an eye on this as well as the UV radiation levels (signs of a tail disconnect will be a large flux in XRay and UV radiation levels).

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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 6:14 pm » by Chronicnerd


Here is the most recent update on Solar Flare activity broken down by Sunspot region since the X1.4 flare occurred:
Well, looks like we have a handfull of CME's to take a gander at here. So, due to time constraints I will make this a pretty quick post.

The "Triad" (1295,1296,1298) Spewed the following CME's since the X1.4 flare:

Flare Class : C
Strength: 8.1
Image

Flare Class: M
Strength:1.6
Image

"Big Boy" Sunspot 1302 (emitted the X1.4 class flare):

Flare Class: C
Strength: 9.6
Image

Flare Class: C
Strength: 6.9
Image

How all of this will impact 2010X1 as it is transiting between the Sun and the Earth? Not sure...

The XRay graph shows lots of XRay radiation levels and the magnometers are showing some interesting deviations...

The NOAA Forecast for Solar Flare Probabilities:
Class M Flare: 70%
Class X Flare: 20%

As I know more I will post...right now we have multiple flares ejected from the Sun and heading in our general direction, which in turn means that most of these flares will pass over both 2010X1 and Earth. The big question is if they are strong enough or in alignment enough to trigger a Tail Disconnection Event...

As I know more I will post...

Cheers,

-CN
:sunny:

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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 6:31 pm » by Symbolon


I believe that the disconnected portion of the tail will have no effect at all, but we will see.
Image

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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 6:32 pm » by Richc


Appreciate your efforts CN.. Good stuff.

At least it is being based on science and not fiction.. :clapper:

Keeping an eye on this.

RIK
"Theres A Storm Coming!"

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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 7:30 pm » by Diggerette44



I live in Australia one late friday afternoon not long ago
I was coming home late, the sun was setting
I could not believe how big the sun was on that day
twice as big then normal, only happen the once

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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 7:42 pm » by Richc


diggerette44 wrote:I live in Australia one late friday afternoon not long ago
I was coming home late, the sun was setting
I could not believe how big the sun was on that day
twice as big then normal, only happen the once


Then it was an optical illusion...

Welcome.. :hiho:

RIK
"Theres A Storm Coming!"

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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 7:51 pm » by Chronicnerd


symbolon wrote:I believe that the disconnected portion of the tail will have no effect at all, but we will see.


I am beginning to think that you are right... even if it does rip the tail off...evidently CMEs can be millions of tons of plasma where as a tail is literally a proton stream coupled with some ionized particles flowing away from the Sun region due to the bombardment of UV radiation from the Sun.

The tail, as I am beginning to find out, can be very dense...or very light...it depends upon the makeup of the comet as well as the comets actual size. Since 2010X1 is a relatively small comet...I am thinking/hoping a TDE would have zero influence on the CME that ripped it off (really it is a magnetic band snapping back into place or reconnecting to a more stronger and opposite in polarity magnetic band/pole.
Here are some videos from Science at NASA that talks about the Tail Disconnection Event a bit:


Upload to Disclose.tv



Here is one of Encke where the tail was disconnected several times. It does look like the density of the tail relative to the CME is negligible... I am going to hold my reservations on this for about 24 hours while I dig a bit deeper...until then here are some more videos on this type of event:


Upload to Disclose.tv



Different view of Comets with some evident research behind it:


Upload to Disclose.tv



This guy does a mass analysis of Elenin:


Upload to Disclose.tv


He confirms it to be a very small mass body...

So... I am hoping it just passes by with no real issues. The more I think about the amount of mass from a CME vs the amount of mass in a tail from something that small...it very well could not have enough mass/energy to contribute much to an already heavily dense CME with associated plasma...

Either case, I will keep an update on the solar flares from now until around Sunday (if any of significance pop up between now and then)...

However, there are some interesting variables:
1.) We don't fully understand comets...some think the tail is just an ionized trail...some think it is a heavily electromagnetically charged body if it gets close to the Sun.
2.) We had a comet, Holmes, pretty much increase in size by an incredible, and unexpected, amount in like under a 72 hour period.
3.) We know that comet tails can "disconnect" in heavy space weather

What we don't know:
1.) How much electricity/energy can a comet "pickup" during a near sun transit?
2.) Does this energy displace itself uniformly or is it primarily held in the Coma...or the tail?
3.) If comets do "collect energy" as they travel through a near sun orbital path, then can this energy be expelled into the plasma?

Not sure at this point...just know that a comet's tail (which can be hundreds and even millions of miles long) can be disconnected from the comet and from existing research and video captures via satellites...it appears the tails "travel along" with the CME...

So...not knowing some of these specifics has me at odds as to whether it might be a bad thing or might be such a negligible difference (relative to a CME) that it really is nothing to even give the time of day worrying about.

Problem is... there doesn't seem to be any one real definitive answer to this...only speculation...and that is the *only* thing keeping me a little on edge through this weekend...the *lack of data* and the *lack of any form of article or announcement from the scientific community that Elenin's tail could indeed go through a Tail Disconnection event as it passes between the Sun and Earth and what impact, if any, that could have on our planet.

So...the lack of any form of acknowledgement and/or even discussion on this particular thing, which obviously happens (see videos above), from the media and/or scientific community...more the scientific community for me...as in...not NASA...NOAA...or even the astronomer boards/sites...

One would think after all of the research and videos done in the past with Comets and with all of the new cool toys they have in space (relative to 2007)...that someone might be like "Hey! Great opportunity to really study Elenin as it passes by...the sun is really active and we might be able to capture even more data on a Tail Disconnection Event"...

But...there isn't anything like that...no discussions...as a matter of fact...I think this site is pretty much the only site with any form of discussion about Elenin that is talking about the potential for a Tail Disconnection Event...

If someone finds another site...talking about this thing please do post links. Just make sure it isn't an obvious posting on another conspiracy theory site dated after this threads first posting...as in someone saw it here...and then posted it on another site after reading about it...I have had that particular thing happen several times...post a theory here...and see it on like 10 other sites a week or two later.

So...if you find a site...talking about the possibility of Elenin going through a TDE due to our Sun's solar weather...and seems to be either from a credible site (i.e. NASA,NOAA, or other related astronomy related sites) that is just discussing the possibility for "viewing and studying purposes"...you know...like they have done so many times in the past... because they have...and have videos on it...and papers on it...

It just seems weird...this is a perfect opportunity for the "astronomy/astrophysicist" community to get very good readings on this...to understand a Tail Disconnection Event (at the least) way better...I mean...it is going to be relatively close to us...and to SOHO and various other satellites close to Earth...and so why not study it?

It is the lack of discussion pertaining to this that is the most bothersome to me...probably some valid reason like it is so small it would be tough to monitor or something like that...

Until the end of this weekend or I find some form of real discussion from relatively credible folks...the jury is out regarding what exactly could or could not happen...

However, right now my thoughts are with you...I think this comet might be too small to even be a blip on anyone's radar except us paranoid folks... :)

We shall see...the conditions are right for it...


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