realorfake wrote:gary19702 wrote:Movies. is that what you think it comes from real? you need to do better than that. try going out and doing it yourself. I do, every year for two weeks in october. unless physically hunting deer and bear counts as a movie to you, I don't know what to tell you.
I grew up on mountain in NE. I've been hunting, camping, quading, biking, fishing...I grew up with friends who took pride in quail, duck, turkey and deer hunts...my first job was at a feed store where I chopped wood and bailed hay all day, i stayed there for 3 years and learned all about farming crops and grazing animals. I've spent more time outdoors than I have indoors...
I know about fish farms, animal farms, raising rabbits for din din, chickens for the same...My family owns a pack of 5 dogs and they sit atop a small mountain in central CT.
If shit were to hit the fan, back home is where I'd head...not for the woods.
Do you stagger your shotgun with compact and then spray? compact, and the spray?
Spray first. You fire forward into the floor/ground and the spray hopefully shocking the individual...While he's collecting himself, bam, compact to his chest...he's done.
No, I don't compact and spray, doesn't help scaring the shit out of a deer then trying to nail a shot on it in the woods, sounds like a suppresion fire technique you use. for bear I could see it, not for whitetail though. I use a A-bolt M-1000 eclipse with lowered grain cartridges for better accuracy. what game do you hunt?, and btw, that explains to me why you'd head home and stay there, perfectly reasonable in that case, I was running under the assumption that you were in a more urban setting. being in a city like Hartford, or Boston is THE last place I'd wanna be if the shit hit it.
What the Mafia can teach us about corporate fraud.
By Mark Gimein
Posted Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 11:09pm
On a rainy day in New York last week, a man named William Black stood in front of a roomful of fellow law professors trying to sum up in a minute what had gone wrong with financial regulation over the last two decades. Actually, Black didn't have even a minute. His breathless spiel had (obviously as usual) already gone over its allotted period, leaving Black with just enough time to toss at his audience a number that encapsulated how slipshod and generally crazy-making federal efforts at dealing with fraud in the financial markets had become.
The number that Black practically shouted out was the grand total of mortgage and securities fraud related convictions the government had managed to secure in the wake of the financial crisis. It was zero. With that startling statistic Black sat down, politely if impatiently waited for the other panelists to finish their brief speeches, and immediately ran off to catch a flight back to Kansas City, trailing a half-open umbrella and a jumble of bags.
Last week, in TBM's roundtable about Michael Lewis' book The Big Short, I wrote about how Wall Street and its financial models were blind to the reality of what was happening in the real world with the no-doc, no-asset, no-nothing loans that drove the subprime mortgage industry. Black explores the other side of the coin: How that same kind of oblivion befogged the work of regulators, who came to believe that fraud rarely happens, doesn't really matter, and wasn't worth pursuing.
Check out this Magnum Photos gallery on mafiosi.
How can that be? The work of Bill Black—who spent a decade as a federal bank regulator—is about how bad economic theory has given people whose jobs should be understanding fraud a screwy sense of how fraud works in the real world. One way of seeing this, as Black describes in a terrific article, is to think about the mob “bust-out.”
The bust-out is what happens when the mob moves in to take control of a business that's heavily indebted to a loan shark. As Black tells it, why the heck a mobster would ever want to take over a bar or liquor store in this way is incomprehensible to a classical economist. Why take over the business when you're already getting every cent of profit and more in your weekly vig?
Except that in the real world, things don't work that way, explains Black, a professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. The reason to take over the business is to loot it 1,000 ways to Sunday, from buying vast amounts of liquor on credit to, ultimately, torching the place for the insurance money. Prosecutors and mobsters know this. Economists who think the mob operates like a bank that happens to charge high interest rates miss it.
The problem here is that none of the ugly realities of how a business can be stripped of everything valuable make their way into the economic and regulatory theories that have been ascendant for the last two decades. How did we get to this point? Well, here's a story:
Back in the early days of the savings and loan crisis, Bill Black was involved in the efforts of bank regulators to close down two savings and loans, Lincoln Savings—the bank run by Charles Keating, later to become the poster boy for the S&L crisis—and CenTrust Savings. The two S&Ls held massive portfolios of junk bonds issued by the (now long-defunct) investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert, then the junk bond kings. Black and other regulators believed that Lincoln's and CenTrust's junk bonds and bad loans were a disaster in the making.
To help make the case for their financial stability, Lincoln and CenTrust went to a consulting company called Lexecon, created by Daniel Fischel, a University of Chicago Law School professor and one of the preeminent authorities on the economics of regulation. Lexecon reported that Lincoln and CenTrust were extremely unlikely to fail, and in the (nearly impossible) case that they did, a failure would cost the bank insurance program less than a penny for every $1,000 of deposits.
Lincoln and CenTrust did fail—in the case of Lincoln, at a cost to the government of $3 billion. Daniel Fischel went on to become dean of the University of Chicago Law School. Not long after the Lincoln and CenTrust debacle, Fischel (who defended Keating and his patron Michael Milken in a 1995 book) and his fellow Chicagoan Frank Easterbrook went on to publish The Economic Structure of Corporate Law, the standard text on the intersection of law and economics.
Wait a second, how can a guy who was so utterly wrong in evaluating the economics of the S&L crisis come to be the go-to guy on regulatory theory? Fischel's theories were based on the premise that in the main markets were very good at evaluating the true worth of loans, bonds, and equities, and certainly better at it than regulators. On Fischel's view—a view that Black marvels at, given what the Chicago professor knew about the inner workings of Keating's bank—no fraud could grow too fast or get too big before the markets punished it.
This makes for a very neat economic theory, and a disaster in practice. In the Easterbrook-Fischel world of economic models—the world in which S&Ls don't fail and don't cost much money when they do—even the most cynical subprime lender acts in its own long-term self-interest. In Black's bust-out world, that's not the case at all.
In bust-out world (which means the real world), chief executives pump up their share price and dump as much of it as they can on the market before everyone else has figured out better. Investment banks pocket fees for underwriting bonds and then dump the losers on their captive investment funds. And what's left after it's done, by the time the market exacts its price, is the burnt shell from which every possible profit has been extracted.
At least two key differences with the current outlook emerge when you look at fraud in this way. The first is that while legitimate companies try to grow for as long as they can, frauds are not structured with the long-term in mind. They are built to fail—they tend to happen, as Black explains, at companies where the “wealth optimizing strategy” for those at the top is to loot the firm.
The people who run such companies know that they will eventually blow up. Their object is to get out with what they can before that happens. Decisions—like those of subprime lenders who handed out hundreds of billions in bad loans—that to neoclassical economists look merely misguided may actually be evidence that the folks who run it are getting ready to burn down the store.
The second difference that emerges in this view of fraud is that you just can't look at frauds in isolation. An economist looking at a bust-out scratches his head wondering why a loan shark would cut off his own best source of revenue or a bar owner would burn down his own business. But in real life there are lots of others involved—from liquor distributors to mob bosses to crooked insurance investigators—and lots of ways of hiding the profits.
If you need to see this to get how the bust-out works, it goes double for complicated financial frauds. You have to pay attention to who is really calling the shots and where the money lies. You can't look at the profits (or losses) of a subprime lender without also looking at the fees taken in by the investment banks that packaged the loans into bonds. You can't look at what happened. You can't look at a lender without also looking at the incentives paid to brokers to peddle junk mortgages.
Legitimate companies make profits and pay them out to shareholders or plow them back into the business. Frauds create huge losses for the public and hidden profits that are hard to find. And some of the biggest are designed for the chief executives to loot the company while being able to claim that he didn't know what was going on and take shelter under the claim that he just couldn't predict where the market would go. “You don't need to send out a memo telling your employees to make fraudulent deals,” says Black, who wrote a book called The Best Way To Rob a Bank Is To Own One. “You can send the same message through your compensation system.”
None of this means that the entire financial crisis can be chalked down to fraud—though Black believes that much of it can. I've written before about how what happened on and off Wall Street with the mortgage crisis was linked to a national delusion in which both ordinary people and those who should have known a lot better imagined that real-estate prices could keep going up forever. Yet as charitable as one might want to be, there is still the issue of that extraordinary statistic about the number of successful prosecutions in this crisis, that big fat zero.
To believe that none of the mortgage crisis was the result of fraud is just as mistaken as to believe that all of it was. And maybe more pernicious, because the lesson is that if a fraud is big enough, it will be ignored. The outlook for that changing soon is not promising. In the case, for instance, of Angelo Mozilo, the chief executive of Countrywide, once the country's biggest mortgage lender, and arguably the man who most defined the mortgage meltdown, the government is pursuing civil, not criminal, penalties. The rest of the world has figured out that the markets are not very good at self-policing.
The economists haven't caught up yet. Nor have the regulators and enforcement agencies. As Black pointed out to me, recently the FBI announced a new and unlikely partner in its efforts to fight mortgage fraud. It is the Mortgage Banker's Association, the trade group for the very industry that set the financial crisis in motion.
http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/mon ... ?page=full
at the end of article 'banksters are going to help the fbi convict themselves'
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By Simon Kennedy
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is putting the Group of 20’s enhanced power to the test as he tries to prod China into revaluing the yuan.
Seven months after the G-20 replaced the Group of Seven as the steering committee for the world economy and pledged to rebalance global growth, Geithner is calling such international forums “the best avenue for advancing U.S. interests” on China’s currency. G-20 finance chiefs meet in Washington in two weeks.
The tactical shift away from bilateral campaigning forces exchange-rate policy onto the G-20’s agenda for the first time since its leaders began meeting in November 2008. Success or failure may determine whether the broader body can make the global economy more crisis-proof, with splits over bank regulation already suggesting it is too unwieldy to achieve consensus.
“It could be that China accepts the call for change from the G-20 as it’s less driven by the developed world,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “I’m increasingly of the view that China wants to shift, but can’t do so while being criticized by the U.S.”
The Chinese government has ignored threats from U.S. lawmakers for almost two years, keeping its currency at about 6.83 to the dollar to aid exporters. Yuan forwards traded yesterday near the strongest level in 11 weeks on speculation the U.S. decision to delay its biannual report on exchange-rate policies will make China more willing to let the currency resume appreciation.
Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards advanced 0.2 percent to 6.6346 per dollar yesterday, reflecting bets the currency will climb 2.9 percent from the spot rate of 6.8258, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Geithner said April 3 that the delay in the exchange-rate report was partly to allow the yuan to be discussed at forums such as the G-20, whose finance ministers and central bankers meet in Washington as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank hold meetings the week of April 19. Leaders convene in Canada in June and in South Korea in November.
In an April 2 interview with Bloomberg Television, Geithner said the U.S. strategy is “designed to increase the odds that China does decide to do what’s in their interest, which is to let their currency start to move up again, and that’ll be part of making sure we have a more healthy global recovery in place.”
Geithner’s strategy “ups the pressure on the G-20 to make progress on the currency issue,” said Tim Adams, a former U.S. Treasury undersecretary. If the group takes up the challenge, “currency adjustment may test the G-20’s ability to succeed as the global economy’s principal governing council,” said Adams, now a managing director at the Lindsey Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based investment consultancy.
Years of Pressure
International lobbying may take time to work if history is any guide. It took almost two years of Group of Seven pressure for China to loosen the yuan’s peg to the dollar in July 2005. After G-20 leaders united a year ago in London to craft a $1.1 trillion plan to aid the world economy, splits are appearing in their agenda over how to regulate banks and whether to impose a tax on financial companies.
Even as China’s economic expansion has fanned inflation concerns, Premier Wen Jiabao is rebuffing foreign calls for a stronger yuan after keeping it little changed since July 2008. The currency isn’t undervalued and countries should avoid “pointing fingers at each other,” Wen said March 14.
Critics of China’s policy have nevertheless become more vocal, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and South Korean President Lee Myung Bak among five leaders to last week tell their G-20 colleagues that currencies should be taken into account in seeking “strong sustainable and balanced growth.” Sarkozy has already said global “currency disorder” will be on the agenda when he holds the G-20 chairmanship next year.
“The trade flows of many countries, not just the U.S., are affected by an undervalued yuan,” said Daniel Price, who organized the November 2008 G-20 summit for President George W. Bush and is now a partner at law firm Sidley Austin LLP in Washington. “Secretary Geithner is entirely correct to reframe the currency issue as a multilateral concern to be addressed through the G-20 rather than a bilateral U.S.-China issue that tends to fall prey to heated rhetoric on both sides.”
The G-20 ducked the topic of exchange rate values at its first three summits even after leaders agreed in Pittsburgh last September to pursue policies that make the world less reliant on U.S. demand and Chinese savings. That was the result of needing to bring China into the international policy-making fold amid the worst global recession since the Great Depression, said Thomas Stolper, a currency strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“China played a leading role in the G-20 and was widely commended for its anti-cyclical fiscal policy, which easily outweighed the already re-emerging concerns linked to the new peg,” London-based Stolper said in a March 30 report to clients. “But now, after further post-crisis normalization and in light of the ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market, the political focus on China has started to grow notably.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... ccyc&pos=2
Be Your Own Messiah
By Jamil Anderlini, FT.com
April 6, 2010 8:35 p.m. EDT
Beijing, China (FT) -- China has begun to prepare the ground publicly for a shift in exchange rate policy, days after the US Treasury said it would postpone a decision on whether to name China a "currency manipulator".
A senior government economist told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday China could widen the daily trading band for the renminbi and allow it to resume the gradual appreciation it halted in July 2008 in response to the global credit crisis.
Ba Shusong, deputy director-general of the Financial Research Institute at the Development Research Center, the cabinet's think-tank, said the timing of any shift depended on the pace of economic recovery in both the US and China.
Speaking at a press briefing organised by the Foreign Ministry, Mr Ba said the current peg was a temporary emergency measure that would be abolished at some point.
Is China manipulating its currency?
In recent months, Wen Jiabao, China's premier, and other senior officials have repeatedly said the renminbi was not undervalued and China would not bow to foreign pressure over its value.
But the official tone has moderated, with Chinese officials suggesting privately that a proposal to adjust currency policy had already been submitted to the cabinet for approval.
Both sides have made conciliatory gestures following months of strained relations, with the US delaying a decison on China as a "currency manipulator" and Beijing moving diplomatically in tandem with Washington on Iran and nuclear security.
Would you pay more for Chinese goods?
"Some grand bargain between the US and Beijing appears to be in the works if it hasn't already been struck," said Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai.
Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, told India's NTV in New Delhi on Tuseday that it was "China's choice" whether to revalue the renminbi and he was confident Beijing would see a more flexible currency was in its own interest.
Goldman Sachs predicts Beijing will soon widen the daily trading band within which the renminbi fluctuates against the dollar from plus or minus 0.5 per cent to plus or minus 1 per cent and then allow it to gradually rise.
"Outside this base case, a relatively small and symbolic one-off revaluation remains possible but the likelihood of a more sizeable move remains negligible," Goldman Sachs economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song said in a report.
The Chinese foreign ministry said China would adhere to three principles on currency policy: any change must be controlled, it must be Beijing's own initiative and any shift must be gradual.
Despite repeated official assertions that the renminbi is not undervalued, most Chinese economists and economic officials acknowledge it is likely to strengthen over the long term.
video: http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/04/06/ ... .shift.ft/
Be Your Own Messiah
Wed, 07 Apr 2010 14:58 EDT
Last Friday's US unemployment report, which showed a net payroll gain of 162,000 jobs in March, has been seized on by the Obama administration and much of the media as confirmation of official claims that the recession is over and a recovery in the jobs market has begun.
Calling the Labor Department report for March "the best news we've seen on the jobs front in more than two years," President Obama said, "We are beginning to turn the corner." The New York Times began its report on the jobs data with the words, "The clouds have parted."
A closer look at the figures, however, leads to far less sanguine conclusions. The net gain in non-farm payrolls was far less than the 200,000 to 300,000 that had been predicted by most economists. Moreover, 88,000 of the new hires were temporary - including 48,000 brought on to conduct the US census survey.
The so-called underemployment rate, which includes those involuntarily working part-time and those who have given up looking for work, rose to 16.9 percent, the third straight monthly increase. The ranks of people seeking full-time employment but forced to work part-time increased to the staggering level of 9.1 million.
Perhaps most ominous, the number of long-term unemployed - those laid off at least 27 weeks - shot up by 414,000 to reach 6.5 million. This category accounts for more than 40 percent of jobless workers, a far higher percentage than in the deep recession of 1981-82. The average length of unemployment in March rose to 31 weeks, the highest level on record going back more than six decades.
Average hourly wages continued their protracted decline.
In the 27th month of a recession that has wiped out over 8 million jobs, the US economy produced fewer new full-time jobs than are needed to keep pace with the normal monthly growth in the labor market. Despite a slight uptick in manufacturing and construction - following months of contraction - the report reflects an economy mired in slump with no prospect of bringing unemployment down to pre-crisis levels for years to come.
To the extent that a slight increase in production in the real economy has occurred, it has been bound up with a massive assault on the jobs, wages, benefits and living standards of the working class. The ruling elite, spearheaded by the Obama administration, is using the economic crisis to effect a permanent reduction in the conditions of workers.
New and lower benchmarks for wages and working conditions are being set that will remain in place. They are not temporary. On this basis, corporate profits have soared despite near double-digit unemployment and depressed consumer spending.
The deterioration in the social position of the working class is reflected particularly sharply in productivity figures. In the fourth quarter of 2009, when the US gross domestic product (GDP) surged by 5.6 percent, productivity - the amount of production squeezed from each worker - rose at an annual rate of 6.9 percent. Unit labor costs fell sharply, by 5.9 percent. Inflation-adjusted hourly wages fell by 2.8 percent from the prior quarter.
These figures document a sharp rise in the intensity of the exploitation of the labor force.
Another indication of the class character of the so-called recovery is the divergence between GDP and a measure of national income - gross domestic income (GDI). In the third quarter of 2009, the GDI was still contracting even as the GDP rose 2.2 percent. The current gap between GDP and GDI is the biggest on record.
This statistical divergence reflects the fact that the present recovery is largely a rebound in corporate profits and the wealth of the financial elite, while the living standards of the vast majority of Americans are continuing to fall. This is a recovery in which class divisions and social inequality are widening.
This can be seen further in a list published Sunday by the New York Times of the 30 highest-paid US corporate CEOs. Fully 10 of the 30 preside over firms that registered declines in revenue and net income in 2009, yet recorded gains in total return - a measure linked to the change in the company's stock price. All but three of these CEOs saw their compensation increase over 2008.
The "success" of these corporations, and of their chief executives, was due overwhelmingly to cost-cutting measures that, even in the face of reduced revenues and income, drove up the firms' share value. This provides a snapshot of the degree to which the "recovery" has been based on ruthless downsizing, wage-cutting and speedup.
To give a few examples:
* The third highest-paid CEO, Ray R. Irani of Occidental Petroleum, received $31.4 million, an increase of 39 percent. His firm suffered a 37 percent decline in revenue, a 57 percent decline in net income, but a 38 percent increase in total return.
* Susan M. Ivey, number 27 on the list, got an 84 percent increase in pay to $16.2 million. Her company, Reynolds American, recorded declines in revenue and net income of 5 and 28 percent, respectively, while its total return soared by 40 percent.
* Andrew N. Liveris of Dow Chemical, number 28 on the list, received $15.7 million, a pay hike of 23 percent. His company's revenue fell 22 percent, its net income fell 61 percent, but its total return jumped 87 percent.
Alongside cost-cutting and increased exploitation of labor, the recovery has been sustained by government bailouts of the banks and a virtually unlimited supply of cheap credit by central banks in the US and around the world. This has driven up stock prices all out of proportion to the state of the real economy and fueled even greater speculative excesses than those which precipitated the 2008 financial crash. Recent weeks, for example, have seen an explosive growth in the junk bond market.
Far from resolving the underlying contradictions of world capitalism, this plundering of public resources has intensified them. Massive, structural imbalances in the global economy - particularly between deficit countries, led by the US, and exporting, surplus countries, led by China and Germany - have grown more pronounced.
Facing record levels of state debt and budget deficits, the US is seeking to increase its exports at the expense of its rivals, but so are all of the other major deficit countries, while surplus nations such as China and Germany fiercely defend their export markets. At the same time, the emptying of state treasuries to rescue the financial elite has increased the pressure for draconian austerity measures to reduce government outlays. This, in turn, can only further depress consumption, making the competition between countries for export markets all the more ferocious and increasing the likelihood of outright trade and currency wars.
The Obama administration, which has pledged to double US exports in five years, appears to be basing its economic strategy on driving down American labor costs to the point where US manufacturing can be at least partially revived as a cheap labor center for export abroad.
Under conditions of long-term mass unemployment, declining wages, growing poverty, record personal bankruptcies and soaring home foreclosures, the entire economy increasingly resembles a house of cards. The revival of the housing market, which is key to any genuine recovery, appears highly problematic with home foreclosures expected to rise from 1.7 million in 2009 to 2.2 million this year.
For the working class, there is no real recovery within the framework of the capitalist system. To avert ever more brutal conditions of exploitation and poverty, it must organize its resistance on the basis of a socialist, revolutionary and internationalist perspective.
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/20633 ... king-class
Be Your Own Messiah
There is massive fraud in the paper gold futures market. The gold cartel, bullion banks are selling gold that does not exist. The situation has gotten so bad that for every ounce of physical gold, they have sold 100 ounces of paper promises to deliver. This is called naked shorting and is blatant fraud. You should accumulate as much physical gold as possible before the sheeple wake up and the great stampede begins. ZeroHedge reports:
Continuing on the trail of exposing what is rapidly becoming one of the largest frauds in commodity markets history is the most recent interview by Eric King with GATA’s Adrian Douglas, Harvey Orgen (who recently testified before the CFTC hearing) and his son, Lenny, in which the two discuss their visit to the only bullion bank vault in Canada, that of ScotiaMocatta, located at 40 King Street West in Toronto, and find the vault is practically empty.
This is a relevant segue to a class action lawsuit filed against Morgan Stanley, which was settled out of court, in which it was alleged that Morgan Stanley told clients it was selling them precious metals that they would own in full and that the company would store, yet even despite charging storage fees was not in actual possession of the bullion. It appears that this kind of lack of physical holdings by all who claim to have gold in storage, is pervasive as the actual gold globally is held primarily in paper or electronic form.
Lenny Organ who was the person to enter the vault of ScotiaMocatta, says “What shocked me was how little gold and silver they actually had.” Lenny describes exactly how much (or little as the case may be) silver was available – roughly 60,000 ounces. As for gold – 210 400 oz bars, 4,000 maples, 500 eagles, 10 kilo bars, 10 one kilogram pieces of gold nugget form, which Adrian Douglas calculates as being $100 million worth, which is just one tenth of what the Royal Mint of Canada sold in 2008, or over $1 billion worth of gold. As Orgen concludes: “The game ends when the people who own all these paper obligations say enough and take physical delivery, and that’s when the mess will occur.”
Also note the interesting detour into what Stephan Spicer of the Central Fund Of Canada, said regarding his friend at a major bank, who wanted access to his 15,000 oz of silver, and had to wait 6-8 weeks for its to be flown in from Hong Kong.
It is funny that central bankers thought they could take the ponzi mentality of infinite dilution of all assets coupled with infinite debt issuance, as they have done to fiat money, and apply it to gold, in essence piling leverage upon leverage. They underestimated gold holders’ willingness to be diluted into perpetuity – when the realization that gold owned is just 1% of what is physically deliverable, you will see the biggest bank run in history.
Click on the link below for the MP3 interview
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldn ... 7:2010.mp3
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/20 ... lly-empty/
Be Your Own Messiah
The sovereign debt crisis has probably 1 more year to run before the plug is pulled by the Illuminists. They wish escalate the problem to such a crisis proportion that when the collapse is triggered, there will be no recourse. It will cause unimaginable suffering, unemployment, poverty, famine, bankruptcies…etc. Thereafter, the Illuminati will trigger their plans for World War 3.
Their plan calls for the collapse of the global monetary system, the destruction of all major fiat currencies. It will lead to a One World Currency and One World Central Bank –> ‘666′. Christopher Laird writes:
Something big is up, and it’s possible the Euro is going into a real crisis within two months…Is this the next big market surprise ala Lehman? Not exactly like Lehman, but of the scale of that crisis that shook the entire world and almost caused worldwide bank shutdowns in Fall 2008? I am beginning to think so, and have been discussing this looming new worry for subscribers, IE we are right at the cusp of something big for the Euro and the European Union, not only financially but very much so politically. Imagine what a real Euro crisis would do to – everything
Alert that Euro on verge of real crisis
We are so concerned by recent developments with Greece as a canary in the coal mine for the Euro …. we foresee a big blow up for the Euro in about roughly one month’s time. That is USD bullish and gold bullish, and bearish for about everything else out there. And this has many other implications for US Treasury bonds, the China Yuan revaluation issue and many others. This Euro situation is a huge potential bombshell, possibly outgunning all previous huge crises we faced over the last 2.5 years. That’s right, the Euro situation can outgun all the worst financial chaos we have seen so far, and lead to massive currency instability worldwide. This is a big deal if it happens as we foresee.
If you noticed in the last week or so of trading days, the USD and gold often went up together. Gold and the USD are fundamentally inverse, the USD pricing most commodities, even gold if you will – especially gold. That particular gold / USD inverse is tied to the fact that the USD is still the world’s paper reserve currency still and is not losing that status yet – and gold is the world’s precious metal reserve currency.
When the USD and gold rise together, trouble is near
Now, when both rise together, you can be assured that flight to safety and liquidity/cash is in effect… The biggest reason for the USD rising at this time is flight to safety due to concerns about the Euro. And money coming out of emerging markets that are peaked out and falling. The Euro makes up over half of the US Dollar index currency basket. So, when the Euro has trouble, the USD is the biggest beneficiary along with gold.
‘This Ain’t happening.’
It became clear last week that the EU bailout with the IMF for Greece was basically hot air. Greek bond spreads rose last week to their highest level versus Germany last week; the bond markets saying the proposed Greek bailout deal was just smoke and mirrors. Since this Greece story has been out for months, it became clear that all the Club med states and the so called PIIGS (I don’t like that term but everyone is using it to refer to those states, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are even larger versions of the looming Greek tragedy, with even larger debt problems. And their time is running out this year too.
Must have $20 billion within two months
Why is Greece causing such a stir, its economy is small compared to say Spain, who is next in line in this crisis…? Because Greece has to refinance about $50 billion worth of bonds over the next number of months, a big $20 billion chunk due to roll over in two months. Greece is now at the door of insolvency.
The fact that the EU cannot come to terms with a relatively small bailout of $50 billion for Greece shows the internal dissention in the EU over the bailouts of the Club Med guys (PIIGS), with Germany finding it politically impossible to sign a deal. Greece is being left to its own devices. That ain’t good. Not good at all.
IMF solves nothing
Getting the IMF involved is viewed by markets as a last ditch effort, and reflects terribly on the EU monetary union and political union. It is said that using the IMF here merely confirms the political paralysis in the EU over this situation, and reflects terribly on the EU and the Euro. Major political paralysis is not something a major potential reserve currency can tolerate. Calls in Germany and elsewhere to kick out repeat EMU (European monetary union) offenders with huge financial deficits, Greece running something like a 13 pct of GDP deficit yearly. It’s going bankrupt.
Money is fleeing the country. A big surge of money flight to international banks in Switzerland, UK, Cyprus in the last week or so. In short, Greece is rapidly developing a sovereign bond crisis. That is nothing new, but the timing is, in light of the fact they need about $20 billion over the next two months. And money fleeing the country…is particularly worrisome.
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/20 ... al-crisis/
Be Your Own Messiah
The country to watch, for the sovereign debt crisis is America. This is because the USD is the world reserve currency. Practically, all major countries hold USD and US treasuries. When these collapse, and they will, it will trigger a global financial and monetary meltdown.
There are some suggestions that the FedRes may raise short-term interest rates. If they do, America’s borrowing cost will rise. A 1% rise in interest rates will result in US$126B (assuming US$12.6T current debt only) of interest payments. This is not chum change. America is currently borrowing money to pay its interest on debts. That tells you America is doomed! Martin Weiss enumerates the problem:
FACT #1: The official national debt now stands at $12.68 trillion — an amount equal to about 88.5% of all the goods and services our economy produces in an entire year.
FACT #2: Contingent obligations for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans, and pensions now stand at an additional $108 trillion over and above the “official” national debt.
FACT #3: State, county and local governments are nearly $3 trillion in debt. Many can’t pay and will ultimately demand that Washington assume responsibility for that debt as well.
FACT #4: Total federal, state and local government indebtedness now stands at a mind-blowing $123.6 trillion.
FACT #5: Last year, Washington added $1.4 trillion to the debt. In this fiscal year, the Obama administration will add another $1.6 trillion!
FACT #6: In addition to funding the current trillion-dollar-plus deficits, the U.S. Treasury must borrow MORE each year to replace bills, notes and bonds that are maturing.
FACT #7: This record-shattering borrowing by the Treasury has resulted in a Mt. Everest of Treasury obligations being dumped onto the market, which naturally depresses bond prices and drives interest rates higher.
FACT #8: In a desperate attempt to keep interest rates low, the Bernanke Federal Reserve has created $1.25 trillion out of thin air to buy mortgage-backed securities … another $300 billion to buy U.S. Treasuries … and yet another $170.6 billion to buy other government bonds — a total of nearly $1.7 trillion in all.
FACT #9: From September 10, 2008 to March 10 of this year, Bernanke increased the nation’s monetary base from $850 billion to $2.1 trillion — a 250% increase in just 18 months.
FACT #10: Despite this massive money-printing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has STILL risen by more than one-fifth — from 3.2% to 3.86% — since December.
FACT #11: Because of this massive money-printing, the U.S. dollar has lost nearly 10% of its value in the past 12 months alone.
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/20 ... ing-facts/
Be Your Own Messiah
Tue, 06 Apr 2010 21:47 EDT
This time Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, look at the scandals of Tony "No Blood for Oil" Blair lying about selling the UK gold supply on "technical advice of the Bank of England;" a millionaire tramp in Sweden and a casino that refuses to pay in America; and, finally, the Irish 'Bad Bank' and the 'Celtic Chernobyl.' Max also talks to William 'BJ' Lawson, who is running for Congress in North Carolina's 4th District, about Ron Paul Republicans, the Federal Reserve setting fiscal policy and defining President Obama.
Be Your Own Messiah
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