22/04/10 - 12:54
The circumstances are historic, Greece stranded by having liquid funds have been left alone, while 2 billion needed to cover the May 19 8-9 billion from past bond expiring.
It is clear that Greece is an economic dead end just 2 billion million in funds the state.
It is obvious that Greece must find 8 to 9 billion in the near future, but to borrow from the markets is impossible.
But earlier than May 17, Greece will not be able to disburse money from the scheme which should have appeal and so far it has not done so.
It is clear that Greece is absolutely ludicrous.
Be Your Own Messiah
World Socialist Web Site
Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:45 EDT
With the international financial institutions demanding that Britain rein in its ballooning debt, all the main political parties are committed to deep-going cuts in public expenditure to pay for the bank bailout and further enrich their corporate backers.
The government's budget deficit has risen to nearly 12 percent of GDP. The total accumulated debt is £952 billion and this is set to rise to £1.4 trillion in 2014-15 as a result of the bank bailouts, subventions, guarantees and quantitative easing measures - not far short of Britain's entire GDP. With no curb on their activities, the banks continue with their reckless and semi-criminal practices.
While none of the parties are spelling out their spending plans very precisely, most estimates suggest that to reduce the debt by 50 percent in the lifetime of the next parliament, as Labour has promised, departmental budgets will have to be cut by nearly 20 percent over the next four years.
To understand the implications, it is necessary to review the employment situation in Britain today. The years 1992 to 2007 saw the longest boom in the post war period. Real output rose by an average of 4 percent a year, but the results as far as the vast majority of working people are concerned have been meagre.
Throughout Labour's period in office, manufacturing continued to decline. The number of people employed in manufacturing fell from 4.2 million in 1991 to 2.8 million in 2007, while service employment grew from 2.4 million to 5.8 million, as Labour actively promoted the interests of the financial sector and fuelled a housing and consumer-led boom based on ever increasing household indebtedness.
Finance's share of output rose to nearly 10 percent and its profits to 12.8 percent in 2007. But despite London's position as a major financial centre, this did not result in a significant increase in jobs. In 2007, even before the financial crisis took effect, the financial sector was not a major employer. It only employed one million people and generated at most about 500,000 jobs in related business services, but certainly no more than 5 percent of the workforce. That is not much more than half the number employed in Britain's now depleted manufacturing sector.
Nearly half of these jobs were based in London and the South East, providing enormous salaries and bonuses for a thin layer at the top. This served to increase income inequality in Britain as a whole as well as the disparity in income and wealth between the Home Counties and the rest of the country, particularly the former industrial regions in the Midlands, the North, Scotland and South Wales.
While the private sector has expanded, much of this was based on privatisation of the state-owned enterprises and outsourcing, subcontracting and the Private Finance Initiative, all of which provided business with new and reliable revenue streams. Whereas wage costs accounted for three quarters of departmental expenditure in 1977, by 2007, this had declined to about 45 percent. In other words, less than half of departmental expenditure is now spent in house. This, together with the expansion in public spending after 2000, has generated a vast increase in disguised subventions to the corporate sector.
There is now a large number of facilities management and service companies that carry out parks maintenance, refuse collection, run the trains, light rail or tram services, manage leisure, school dinners, cleaning and other services on a contract basis, and own and manage care homes and nursery schools, whose fees are paid either directly or indirectly by the state. "Social enterprise" or third sector businesses manage housing estates and provide social services on a contract basis for local government. The national railways, light rail systems and some bus services also receive substantial subsidies.
None of this is very visible: official statistics do not record the number of people employed by such firms providing public services on government contracts. But a recent CRESC report by academics at Manchester University reworked the data provided in the Annual Business Inquiry published annually since 1998. They estimated that the number of people employed by both the state and the para-state sector grew from 6.2 million in 1998 to 7.5 million in 2007. That is, the para-statal sector employed 1.7 million people in 2007, particularly in health, education and social services.
Many of these are employed on low wages or on wages lower than the previous rate for the job when carried out in the public sector. The report notes that such jobs are typically female work and are often part time. Public services, whether provided by the state or the private sector, have been crucial in providing work for women. To the extent that households are dependent upon two incomes, it has been public service employment that has created the second wage earner.
Families in the former industrial regions have only been kept afloat by the increase in public and para-state sector employment, or by invalidity benefits, as there have been few new private sector jobs. In Northern Ireland, the public sector is the main employer.
Thus, despite the longest boom in the post war period, there has been little genuine private sector job creation. Most of what has been created has been dependent upon increased public expenditure channelled in the direction of business, masking the emasculation of the British economy. Despite decades of successive governments' business friendly policies, British business has only survived at all because it has been propped up by the government.
Unemployment, as reflected in the number of people claiming Job Seeker's Allowance, was 1.59 million in February, a fall of 33,000, although the wider Labour Force Survey (LFS), which includes people who are out of work but not claiming benefits, recorded 2.45 million unemployed between November and January, an unemployment rate of 7.8 percent. The number of long term unemployed - out of work for more than 12 months - rose by 61,000 to 687,000, the highest since 1997. The number of people in work also fell by 54,000 over the quarter to 28.86 million, the lowest rate since late 1996.
The demands of the financial institutions for 20 percent cuts in government expenditure will therefore have a devastating impact on jobs and household income. A 20 percent headcount reduction implies at least 1.5 million job losses. This would be a post-war record, greater than the level of unemployment reached under Margaret Thatcher in the mid-1980s, under conditions in which benefit levels are already set at a fraction of the rate they were two decades ago and household debts are massively higher.
This can only be achieved by across the board sackings, including "core" professional workers such as teachers and nurses, who form the largest proportion of the public sector workers. As well as plunging millions into poverty and the certain loss of their homes as families default on their mortgages, such cuts mean the wholesale closures of hospitals, schools, colleges, universities, colleges, care homes and other vital services.
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/20729 ... r-workers-
Be Your Own Messiah
World Socialist Web Site
Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:37 EDT
On April 12, French Labor Minister Eric Woerth met with the trade unions and employers' federations to map out further pension cuts. Proposed changes include lengthening the pay-in period beyond 41 years - currently the limit for workers retiring after 2012 - and increasing the retirement age beyond 60, possibly to 65. The government has also announced that further consultation with the unions and employers will take place on April 22. It reportedly expects to implement the "reform" before the end of 2010.
The current pension "reform" is part of a broad attack on the working class to satisfy financial markets - similar to measures carried out by governments across Europe, including Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, in the wake of the Greek debt crisis. After the outbreak of the world economic crisis in 2008, and France's bank bailout, the French budget deficit has soared, reaching 8.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product this year.
The French government submitted its stability programme for the period 2010-2013 to the European Commission in early February. It foresees a reduction in the public deficit from 8.2 percent to 3 percent of GDP by 2013, entailing a cut in government spending on the order of €100 billion ($US 135 billion). The programme includes reductions in education and health care spending, pensions, unemployment benefits, and public sector employment.
On April 14, the government-appointed Pensions Advisory Council (Conseil d'orientation des retraites, COR) released a report calling for cuts in the face of the soaring public deficit. The report outlined a number of possible future scenarios, claiming the pension deficit would range between €72 and €115 billion by 2050. According to Le Monde, the pension deficit this year is expected to reach €30 billion.
The government is attempting to use the COR report to scare workers into accepting the planned pension reform, although a clear majority of the population opposes the measures. According to a Harris Interactive poll for RTL, while 80 percent of the population thinks reform is needed, 56 percent reject lengthening the pay-in period and 60 percent oppose an increase in the retirement age.
President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose popularity is plummeting, is proposing these measures as his ruling UMP (Union pour un Mouvement Populaire - Union for a Popular Movement) faces broad opposition to the effects of the economic crisis and its austerity measures. An April 16 poll indicates that 65 percent of the population does not want Sarkozy to run for a second term in the 2012 presidential election. Overwhelming opposition to his policies expressed itself in the severe defeat for the UMP in the March regional election, in which the Socialist Party (Parti Socialiste, PS) won in 21 of France's 22 regions.
Under these circumstances, the French trade unions' pose of opposition to Sarkozy is critical to disorienting the working class and preventing it from mounting independent political struggle against the cuts. At the same time, the unions work closely with the government to negotiate and impose the cuts.
After the April 12 meeting, the trade unions criticized the pension cuts, which they themselves are preparing in negotiations with the government. Bernard Thibault, the leader of the CGT (Confédération Générale du Travail - General Confederation of Labour, close to the Communist Party), criticized the government for "refusing to create the conditions for a real debate on the future of pensions in our country." He called on workers to march in May Day demonstrations to protest the reform.
In fact, the trade unions played a key role in drafting not only the pension cuts, but also the COR report. As French Prime Minister François Fillon noted after the release of that report, "this document was prepared by men and women of every political and trade-union sensibility."
The COR was setup by then Socialist Party prime minister Lionel Jospin in 2000. The COR's Panel - its leading body - includes representatives of the major unions - CGT, CFDT (French Democratic Confederation of Labour, close to the Socialist Party), FSU (Federation of Unitary Unions) and FO (Workers Power) - and employers, parliamentarians, top civil servants, and assorted experts.
It should be noted that Jean-Christophe Le Duigou, a leading CGT official and its former secretary in charge of pensions, is a member of COR's Panel. He played a decisive role in imposing massive cuts on public sector "special regime" pensions in 2007, when the government increased the pay-in period for public sector workers in strategic sectors such as transport and energy to 41 years.
At the same time, the trade unions' pose of opposition helps boost the bourgeois "left" opposition of the PS - whose program is not substantially different from Sarkozy's - as a contender to replace the current president.
Along these lines, on April 14, Socialist Party first secretary Martine Aubry wrote a column in the Le Monde headlined "Beyond the reform of pensions, we must win the revolution of aging." In January, she declared her support for cutting pensions and increasing the retirement age by two years. As she tries to position the PS for a return to power, Aubry now advocates keeping the legal retirement age at 60, in an attempt to present the PS as the defenders of the people's interests.
Aubry echoes CGT leader Thibault's insistence that Sarkozy negotiate the cuts with the unions: "The government is trying to whip up an emergency atmosphere where it can impose its unilateral decisions, but, as the trade unions have requested, one should take the time for real negotiations to find the path to a just reform which is viable in the long term."
In contrast to the government's measures, she proposes some alternative measures to make up the pension deficit, such as an increase on corporate taxes and a tax on stock-options.
Aubry's proposal is fraudulent; it is hardly a secret that the PS is a stalwart defender of the interests of French capitalism. One should recall that soon after taking power in 1981, Socialist Party president François Mitterrand abandoned his nationalization program and imposed painful austerity measures that devastated France's traditional manufacturing industries. Under the Plural Left (PS, French Communist Party, and Green) government (1997-2002), led by Jospin, the Socialist Party presided over the privatisation of numerous state industries.
More broadly, the role of the various social-democratic governments in Europe is not substantially different than that played by right-wing conservative governments in implementing savage cuts on the working class.
The most relevant example is George Papandreou's PASOK government in Greece, elected last October. Papandreou won the vote with false promises that he would promote a bailout package and improve workers' living standards. Upon taking power, he slashed social spending, cut public-sector wages, and increased the retirement age by two years.
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/20728 ... nsion-cuts
Be Your Own Messiah
World Socialist Web Site
Wed, 21 Apr 2010 23:48 EDT
Major banks and investors continued to bid up interest rates on Greek government debt in the run-up to tomorrow's strikes in Greece, prompting renewed fears that joint European-IMF bailout plans might fail. It is widely assumed in financial circles that bailouts will not resolve the underlying economic problems that provoked the debt crisis, and European officials and media are increasingly discussing state bankruptcy or the end of the common European currency, the euro.
The interest rate Greece pays on 10-year loans rose to a record 7.807 percent yesterday, far higher than the rate at which investors believe Greece can safely refinance its debts. Greece must raise €10 billion by the end of May to avoid defaulting on old debts.
At a press conference, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said European and IMF officials would arrive in Athens for 10 days of negotiations on a potential bailout. He said that the decision to request a bailout would "depend both on the borrowing conditions and the progress of talks" in Athens. He said he still planned for a "road show" to try to raise funds in the US.
It is increasingly doubtful, however, that Greece can obtain loans on American or Asian financial markets. The Daily Telegraph cited Simon Derrick of Bank of New York Mellon: "China is becoming concerned about Europe. Greece is going to struggle to find anybody to buy its debt. There is no road-show in Asia, and it may pull out of its show in the US."
Moreover, financial commentators increasingly anticipate that Greece will be unable to repay its debts, even with European or IMF loans. While a joint European-IMF bailout of roughly €45 billion has been discussed, German central bank governor Axel Weber recently said that €80 billion might be needed. He told a closed-door meeting of German lawmakers that Greece's position was worsening and "the numbers are changing all the time."
In a Financial Times column, Wolfgang Münchau wrote: "Greece has a debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of 125 per cent. Greece needs to raise around €50 billion ($68 billion, £44 billion) in finance for each of the next five years to roll over existing debt and pay interest. That adds up to approximately €250 billion, or about 100 per cent of Greek annual GDP." He concluded, "The best thing you can say about the rescue package is that it buys time to negotiate an orderly default."
These comments come as Greek workers prepare for further strikes against the austerity measures enforced by Greek Prime Minister Giorgios Papandreou of the social-democratic PASOK party. After refusing to mount actions against Papandreou for one month, major unions in Greece - the ADEDY public-sector workers' union and the Stalinist PAME union, which is also calling for strikes today - have called strikes for Thursday, April 22. The GSEE private-sector unions indicated they may call for strike action "later this month."
The unions themselves do not oppose Papandreou's austerity measures - the ADEDY and the GSEE leaderships largely consist of PASOK members - and their opposition is based on the bankrupt perspective of pressuring Papandreou to implement smaller cuts. Their decision to call further strikes reflects growing anger in the working class over rising social distress, with wages and social spending collapsing because of Papandreou's cuts. Unemployment rose to 11.3 percent in January, according to the latest available figure - with 69,000 jobs lost in December, in a country of only 11 million people.
The response of financial markets to the rising opposition in the working class is to broaden their assault. As they ruin Greece by charging extortionate interest rates, they are also speculating against other European countries - aiming to realise huge profits on state debts guaranteed by public funds of the larger European countries.
The New York Times observed last week that Greek bailout plans encouraged "investors to test Europe's - and in particular Germany's - stomach for a rescue of other troubled European economies, beginning with Portugal."
It added that "it will be difficult for Portuguese politicians to persuade their already-pinched populace that more sacrifices - like public-sector wage cuts or higher value-added taxes - are necessary." However, the Times noted, credit rating agency Fitch had already downgraded Portugal's rating over "doubts that Portugal can cut its deficit of 9 percent of GDP."
It added that while the US and UK had low savings rates similar to Portugal and Greece, they could print money to finance debts - whereas the European Central Bank, mindful of opposition to inflation especially from Germany, refuses to print money as a long-term policy.
Such measures drive up Portugal's borrowing costs, making large profits for investors and allowing politicians to press the population for painful social concessions. Interest rates charged for 10-year Portuguese state debt have risen 0.25 percent over the last week, reaching 4.61 percent yesterday.
Amid warnings of renewed "European contagion," the IMF released a report yesterday stating that the Greek crisis marked the starting point of a "new phase" of the global crisis.
The IMF reported that banks had lost $2.3 trillion due to the economic crisis, of which $1.5 trillion has already been written down - though this figure could rapidly increase, in the event of significant falls in stock or real estate markets. It noted that "significant pockets" of debt remained, notably in weaker banks - US regional banks, German Landesbanken, and Spanish savings banks.
It also drew attention to the immense levels of government debt now underlying world finance, calling for "fiscal consolidation" - i.e., government spending cuts. José Viñals, head of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, noted: "Advanced countries have the debt levels that they had after World War Two but without a world war."
Such figures point to the disastrous mismanagement of the European and world economies by the financial aristocracy. Measures proposed by the authorities highlight the fact that none of them have positive economic and industrial plans to protect economic activity, and instead are heading for a social and political catastrophe.
In line with the IMF report, IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard granted an extensive interview to Le Monde in which he suggested that financial authorities pursue a more inflationary policy, including lower interest rates: "Of course, Greece must tighten its belt to get out of the difficult spot it has put itself in. But lending money at high rates is senseless, because one makes recovery impossible." He proposed a "higher average rate of inflation" to avoid a collapse of wages and economic activity, and make it easier for countries to repay debts, together with cuts in pensions.
In an interview with Der Spiegel, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble compared a Greek default to that of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the September 2008 financial crisis. Total outstanding Greek sovereign debt is estimated at €300 billion. He said, "Greece's debts are all in euros, but it isn't clear who holds how much of those debts. The consequences of a national bankruptcy would be incalculable. Greece is just as systemically important as a major bank."
In short, a Greek default would threaten to provoke not only open struggles between Greece's creditors - major UK, French, Swiss, and German banks - but a broad financial panic.
Asked by Der Spiegel why Berlin "gave in" and agreed to help fund a bailout for Greece, Schäuble denied he had "given in" and said he thought Greece's austerity plan was "credible." However, he refused to take questions about the risks that Portugal, Spain, or other European countries could face similar troubles, saying that to do so would be "fueling the business of dubious speculators."
He repeated his earlier proposals to set up a way to expel debt-ridden countries like Greece from the common currency union.
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/20729 ... c-collapse
Be Your Own Messiah
US stocks follow European markets sharply lower as Portugal, Greece debt downgraded u
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are once again worried that debt problems in Greece and Portugal could threaten the global economic recovery.
Stocks plunged in the U.S. and Europe Tuesday after Standard & Poor's downgraded the debt of the two European countries. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 213 points, its worst loss in almost three months. All the major market indexes were down about 2 percent.
The ratings downgrades also sent the dollar up more than 1.1 percent against the euro, hitting its highest level in about a year. At the same time, gold and Treasury prices also rose as investors sought safer investments. The three often do not trade in the same direction.
"It was a knee-jerk reaction," said Brian Peardon, a wealth adviser at Harrison Financial Group in Citrus Heights, Calif. Peardon said the small size of Greece and Portugal's economies mean their debt struggles are not yet a major problem. But if they were to default on their debt, other countries that hold their bonds would also suffer.
Debt-strapped countries would also likely find it harder to spend more to stimulate their economies and help feed the global economic recovery.
Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's debt to junk status and lowered Portugal's debt two notches to A-minus from A-plus. Greece has already admitted it can't pay debts coming due shortly and it has asked for a bailout from European neighbors and the International Monetary Fund. And there are growing concerns about Portugal's ability to handle its debts.
Investors have been on edge for months about Greece's fiscal crisis even as they've sent stocks higher on signs of an improving U.S. economy. They have also been worried that Portugal could be the next weak European economy to require help. That has undermined confidence in Europe's shared currency, the euro.
"This is a major test case for the euro," said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist with Prudential Financial. The European Union "needs a viable template on how to deal with these issues," Krosby added, noting that troubles extend beyond just Greece.
Tuesday's downgrades overshadowed the latest series of upbeat earnings reports from U.S. companies including 3M and Dupont.
A setback in the European economic recovery "sends a U.S. recovery back and spreads to emerging markets," said Eric Thorne, an investment adviser at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management in Bryn Mawr, Pa.
The debt problems have the potential "to have devastating effects," Thorne said. Thorne noted, however, he doesn't yet predict a worst-case scenario that would put a global recovery completely on hold.
Greece agreed last week to tap a rescue package from the 15 other countries that use the euro and the International Monetary Fund. However, there are now worries that Greece won't have access to the money before it is forced to make a big debt repayment on May 19.
The downgrades drew some of the market's attention away from testimony by Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and other top executives from the bank on Capitol Hill. The executives were testifying about the company's dealings in mortgage-backed securities during the credit crisis.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has charged Goldman with civil fraud, accusing it of misleading investors about investments tied to subprime mortgages.
Goldman was actually one of the relatively few winning stocks Tuesday. Analysts said investors were reassured by the fact there were few new details in the testimony. The stock rose $1.01, or 0.7 percent, to $153.04.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 213.04, or 1.9 percent, to 10,991.99. It was the biggest drop for the average since it fell 268.37 on Feb. 4, also amid concerns about European debt problems.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 28.34, or 2.3 percent, to 1,183.71, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 51.48, or 2 percent, to 2,471.47.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-pu ... et=&ccode=
Be Your Own Messiah
Warning! Financial, Economic And Monetary Armageddon 2010!
I am sounding this alarm loud and clear! By Q4 2010 All Hell Will Break Loose! Warning! Warning! Ginormous financial, economic and monetary 5000′ high tsunami coming our way! Get out of all paper assets: stocks (except for precious metal stocks), currencies… goto physical precious metals, gold and silver now!!!
Stock up on food because food price inflation is going to skyrocket. The coming collapse will cause major disruption in the supply chain. There will be food but because the banking system, financial system will collapse, the means of financing the business will be affected. Alot of business will goto a cash or more likely gold payment mode. This will result in massive price disruptions and shortages!
Predictions For The Rest Of 2010
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the ‘unreality’…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.
Terrorist attacks and the “Crash of 2010″. 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.
2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, “THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER.”
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.
Harry Dent (investor)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.
Richard Russell (Market Expert)
(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)
Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)
Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.
The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.
WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)
“You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late.”
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America’s savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar’s collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.
Alpha-Omega Report (Trends Forecast)
Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy. Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.
Robin Landry (Market Expert)
I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes’ Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.
Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area, “predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.
Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.
James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)
The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.
Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)
“In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year’s lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions. This will accelerate the dollar’s descent and refocus everyone’s attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today’s announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed’s top players.” Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.
Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.
Unnamed Economist working for US Gov’t (GLP)
What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now…you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression. Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.
DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010- Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.
Markets up until mid-to-late-summer. Then “all hell breaks lose” from then on through the rest of the year.
**Personally I dont give a f*ck for the webbots
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/20 ... ddon-2010/
Be Your Own Messiah
Reinaul wrote:Gerald Celente: Financial Armageddon 2.0
Hmm, Celente is at least partly right, but it doesn't take a wizard to see the deep doo-doo we are in now - lets hope he's right about the solution.
I feel like I should point out, though - he did appear to shapeshift at 3:40
- Jimmy Carl Black (the Indian of the group)
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