CME's- The Sun, Its Happenings, and Potential

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PostMon Jan 16, 2012 7:15 pm » by Shaggietrip


Here are a few updates.


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To me the sun looks like it may be waking up. I expect 1402 and or 1401 to produce fairly large events. As chronicnerd has stated to watch also.Unfortunately they are turning our way. Lets hope they hold off until they pass beyond the facing of earth.


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@chronidnerd

Thanks you, It would be great if you had any input on the question rich316 has posted. I know that you are better equipt in the data aspect and interpretation of such data. Hope you put your thoughts in on it. Stay well and thanks for post.
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Star watchers,Sun,Moon or just space in interest. https://www.darkskywatcher.com/dsw74.html

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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 2:16 am » by Shaggietrip


Now on to the flux. This is very tough. Lots of info that leads to every where. I tried to keep in mind that everything is connected. So it is hard to just focus on one thing with out having to give thoughts to others. I tried to segregate the data info to flux. There is much more out there in the links provided. There is a lot in this post also. Take your time read re-read. I do not have time to highlight so it is important to try and find key spots.

So with no further adieu lets look at some data.


10.7 Solar Flux history
The history of the 10.7cm Solar Flux is intimately tied in with the beginnings of Canadian radio astronomy. Immediately after the Second World War, Arthur Covington and his colleagues at the National Research Council in Ottawa used bits of military surplus radar and test equipment to make a radio telescope. The antenna was a 4ft (1.2m) paraboloid from a Type IIIC Gun Laying Radar, mounted on a prototype mount casting for a Model 268 radar. By leaning the mount so that the azimuth axis was pointed at the Pole Star, it was converted into a simple polar mount, which made tracking the Sun much easier. The receiver was a Dicke switching receiver used during the war to test silicon mixer crystals for radar applications. The radar system operated at a frequency of 2800MHz, that is a wavelength of 10.7cm.

The instrument was pointed in the direction of various celestial objects, including Jupiter, the Milky Way, aurora borealis, and the Sun. It was too insensitive to pick up any cosmic source apart from the Sun. However, as time passed, Covington and his colleagues realized that the Sun's emission at 10.7cm wavelength was varying. They did not expect this. Thinking at that time was that the solar emission at centimeter wavelengths would be simply black body emission from a ball of hot gas. This led to the question of whether this was a variation in the emission from the whole disc or that smaller, variable sources were present, perhaps associated with active regions and sunspot groups.

The poor angular resolution of the radio telescope (a few degrees) made it impossible to distinguish between these two possibilities. However, an opportunity to address the question offered itself on 23 November, 1946, when an eclipse of the Sun occurred in the Ottawa area.


Image
The actual recording of the radio emission during that eclipse is shown in this Figure.


The observation showed convincing proof that strong contributions to the total emission at 10.7cm originated in the vicinity of sunspots. The eclipse record shows a strong dip in signal strength after 11:40 local time, when the Moon covered a large sunspot on the solar disc.

Covington then showed that the 10.7cm Solar Flux correlates with indices of solar activity such as sunspot number and total sunspot area, with the advantage over those indices that the measurements are completely objective, and can be made under almost any weather conditions. Since it is closely correlated with magnetic activity, it correlates closely with other activity indices and, since magnetic activity modulates the Sun's energy output, with solar irradiance.

The emission Covington had found is now known as the Slowly-Varying or S-component of solar radio emission. It was subsequently established, through both observation and theory, that the best wavelength to observe this component of solar radio emission is around 10cm. That Covington decided to make observations at 10.7cm wavelength was decided his using radar components designed to operate at that wavelength. The choice had nothing whatsoever to do with astronomical considerations, and must count as one of the more significant coincidences in astronomy.

The 10.7cm Solar Flux is currently one of the best indices of solar activity we have. It now forms a consistent, uninterrupted database covering more than 50 years. Only sunspot number counts cover a longer period, going back to at least the 17th Century. However, these data are subject to subjective effects in observation and evaluation, and are affected by the weather.

Between 1946 and 1990, the measurements were made in the Ottawa area. In 1990, following the closure of the last good observing site in the area, the programme was relocated to the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory, where it will be for the foreseeable future.

Source: http://www.spaceweather.ca/sx-2-eng.php


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About the Solar Flux Data

The database available here comprises two components: measurements of the 10.7cm Flux and daily records of flux monitor output. Each measurement of the 10.7cm Solar Flux is expressed in three values: the observed, adjusted and URSI Series D values.

The observed value is the number measured by the solar radio telescope. This is modulated by two quantities: the level of solar activity and the changing distance between the Earth and Sun. Since it is a measure of the emissions due to solar activity hitting the Earth, this is the quantity to use when terrestrial phenomena are being studied.

When the Sun is being studied, the annual modulation of the 10.7cm Solar Flux by the changing distance between the Earth and Sun is undesirable. However, one byproduct of the ephemeris calculations needed for the solar flux monitors to properly acquire and track the Sun is the distance between the Sun and the Earth. We therefore produce an additional quantity, corrected for variations in the Earth-Sun distance, and given for the average distance. This is called the Adjusted value.

Absolute measurements of flux density are quite difficult, and in the early years of solar radio astronomy, considerable effort around the world went into making absolute measurements of the solar flux density at a number of different frequencies. An attempt was then made to fit all these various data to a spectrum. Each set of measurements was then given a scaling factor that would move them right onto the fitted spectrum. For the 10.7cm Solar Flux a scaling factor of 0.9 was estimated. In the light of later work, this work should possibly be redone. However, we also give in the database the Series D Flux, which is the adjusted value multiplied by 0.9.

Three flux determinations are made each day. Between March and October measurements are made at 1700, 2000 (local noon) and 2300UT. However, the combination of location in a mountain valley and a relatively high latitude make it impossible to maintain these times during the rest of the year. Consequently, from November through February, the flux determination times are changed to 1800, 2000 and 2200, so that the Sun is high enough above the horizon for a good measurement to be made.

The record for each measurement of the 10.7cm Solar Flux is as below. The quantities are separated by commas. The 10.7cm Solar Flux is given in solar flux units (an sfu = 10-22.m-2.Hz-1).

- The Julian Day of the measurement (see Note 1)
- The Carrington Rotation Number (see Note 2)
- The year
- The month
- The day
- The observed flux
- The adjusted flux
- The Series D flux.

Note 1 : The Julian Day is a simple day count starting at noon on 1st January, 4713 BC. It is convenient for long-term astronomical observations, such as the study of variable stars, because no date decoding is necessary and (for European astronomers) avoids a date transition in the middle of an observing night.

Note 2: Carrington Rotation Number is the number of times the Sun has rotated since 9th November, 1853. Since solar activity is often localized in longitude, and the rotation period of roughly 27 days is close to a month, monthly averaging can generate beats in the amplitude of the averages which can give produce spurious indications of the appearance and decay of active structures. It is therefore often better to average over a solar rotation than over a month.


Lost source link. errrrr


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The monthly averages are the radio emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 centimetres averaged over the month. Vertical scale units are in solar flux units (1 sfu = 10-22.m-2.Hz-1), horizontal scale units are in years.

Image



The rotational averages are the radio emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 centimetres averaged over the Carrington Rotation. Vertical scale units are in solar flux units (1 sfu = 10-22.m-2.Hz-1), horizontal units are Carrington Rotation number. Carrington Rotation Number is the number of times the Sun has rotated since 9th November, 1853. The rotation period is roughly 27 days.

Image


Using the 10.7cm Flux as a Proxy for Sunspot Number

Sunspot number is a widely-used index of solar activity. However, it might not always be available sufficiently promptly. Using more than 40 years of data, we have found the empirical relationship below is useful in using the 10.7cm flux values as a proxy for sunspot number:

N = (1.14)·S - 73.21

where S is the solar flux (density) value in solar flux units.

Since the 10.7cm flux is a more objective measurement, and always measured on the same instruments, this proxy "sunspot number" should have a similar behaviour but smaller intrinsic scatter than the true sunspot number.


Daily Flux data at source link below.

Source: http://www.spaceweather.ca/data-donnee/sol_flux/sx-5-eng.php


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A graphical comparison of solar cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24


Solar cycle 24 was a slow starter. Until the end of 2010 it looked as if the cycle could become the smallest in at least a century. In 2011 cycle 24 has finally displayed quite a bit of activity, and after august 2011 there has been a strong increase in solar flux. Currently cycle 24 is developing similarly to another slow starter, cycle 10, and there's a chance the cycle could become significantly stronger than the current consensus.

A number of previous cycles have been selected for comparison with cycle 24. While cycle 10 is the one to reach the highest peak and the one that currently tracks cycle 24 best, the weaker cycles 12 and 14 may be better long term comparisons. The chart below displays the development of all those cycles during their 10 first years.

The X axis in the chart is the number of months from the start of a cycle, while the Y axis is the international monthly smoothed sunspot number.


Image


A graphical comparison of solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24

Image
Please note that the start dates for each cycle is calculated using the 13-month smoothed monthly mean sunspot number. One advantage of using this statistical (numerical) approach is that the start month of a solar cycle is the same as the month of the solar minimum. It is possible to use other criteria to separate solar minimum and the start of a solar sunspot cycle, however, which criteria to use and how much importance each is given, unfortunately leaves room for individual opinion.


Source: http://www.solen.info/solar/
For individual Solar Cycle Graphs go here. http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl1_20.html

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NASA is predicting that the coming solar maximum could produce very energetic solar flares and coronal mass ejecta. These events have the potential to cause significant damage to our power grid as well as our orbiting satellites. But how do we know what to expect?


Previous Solar Storms

Should a solar storm erupt in the coming years, it will release a massive amount of high energy charged particles streaming toward Earth. Such a storm occurred in 1859.

Shortly after the Sun reached solar maximum in 1859, the Sun experienced a significant increase in sun spot activity as well as a sequence of intense solar flares. The largest solar flare on record during the maximum was then observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington. The result of the flare was a coronal mass ejection that sent charged particles streaming toward Earth, reaching the atmosphere only 18 hours after the ejection. This is startlingly quick given that the trip normally takes several days.

Once the particles reach the Earth they caused a series of phenomena to occur, the likes of which the Earth has not experienced since. First of all, charged particles are usually captured by the Earth’s magnetic field, and primarily get funneled to the poles. There, they interact with the Earth’s atmosphere creating brilliant colors known as aurorae.

In this case, however, the flux of particles was so high that the magnetic field could not shield the Earth from them all. So instead of aurorae only being created near the poles, they came into existence throughout the Earth. Reports of aurorae were common over the Caribbean, as well as the central United States. At one point the glow in the Rocky Mountains was such that it awoke the sleeping miners, causing them to begin getting prepared for the day, believing that it was in fact dawn.

Another, and perhaps more significant, problem was that the charged particle flux began to reek havoc on electronic systems. Specifically, failure of telegraph systems world wide were reported.
If This Has Happened Before, Then What’s the Big Deal?

Knowing that such an event has happened in our worlds history would surely lead the world’s leaders to prepare for another such event, right? With all of today’s advanced technology we must be prepared.

Well, no. In fact a report commissioned by the office of the President showed that in fact such a storm would not only cause problems for electronic devices, but could potentially bring down the entire power grid. And not just here, but around the world. The kind of damage that would be caused could take months or, more likely, years to repair.

Could you imagine? No electricity for years? No phones, no computers, no internet? That is the possibility that we are facing. However, this would take a massive storm like the one in 1859 to even approach such cataclysmic events, but it is something that we need to be aware of.

Source: http://space.about.com/od/sunsol/a/History_Of_Solar_Flares.htm


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Image

The Ap index is a measure of the general level of geomagnetic activity over the globe for a given (UT) day. It is derived from measurements made at a number of stations world-wide of the variation of the geomagnetic field due to currents flowing in the earth's ionosphere and, to a lesser extent, in the earth's magnetosphere. The official values for Ap (and other related indices of geomagnetic activity such as the three-hour Kp index) are calculated by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam Adolf-Schmidt-Observatory for Geomagnetism, D-14823 Niemegk (Germany), and are available from http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/pb2/pb23/GeoM ... /kp_index/ with near real-time "quicklook" values and definitive values updated twice a month (once during the days 16-20 with the first 15 days of the current month and once during the days 1-5 with the second half of the previous month). The values plotted here are an estimate of Ap generated by the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE) from a different, smaller set of stations than used in the final Ap values. The AFWA/XOGX Ap values are available in several products issued by the NOAA SWPC.

Source: [url]http://www.nwra.com/spawx/ap.html
[/url]



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One
of these indices (IHV) is very strongly correlated with the am, aa,
ap type of indices and allows an independent check on the
calibration of these indices:


Image



[img][img]http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/3281/screenhunter29jan161456.jpg[/img][/img]


It is evident that the aa-index is systematically too low before 1957



An 11-year running mean attenuates the solar cycle and shows the
trend more clearly:



Image


t is clear that McCracken [2007] HMF does not agree with the
‘consensus’ B, although agreement was claimed with an earlier
[and now superseded] reconstruction by Lockwood et al. [1999 –
“more than doubled during the last century”]


This graphic may be place wrong
Image



Source: http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202008%20SH24A-01.pdf



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Abstract. Analysis is made of the geomagnetic-activity aa
index and its source K-index data from groups of groundbased
observatories in Britain, and Australia, 1868.0–2009.0,
solar cycles 11–23. The K data show persistent biases, especially
for high (low) K-activity levels at British (Australian)
observatories. From examination of multiple subsets of the
K data we infer that the biases are not predominantly the
result of changes in observatory location, localized induced
magnetotelluric currents, changes in magnetometer technology,
or the modernization of K-value estimation methods.
Instead, the biases appear to be artifacts of the latitudedependent
scaling used to assign K values to particular local
levels of geomagnetic activity. The biases are not effectively
removed by weighting factors used to estimate aa. We show
that long-term averages of the aa index, such as annual averages,
are dominated by medium-level geomagnetic activity
levels having K values of 3 and 4.
Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (General or miscellaneous;
Instruments and techniques)


Introduction
The K and aa indices (e.g. Mayaud, 1980; Rangarajan, 1989)
are widely used summary metrics of geomagnetic-field activity
derived from data acquired at ground-based observatories.
The “local” K index measures the maximum variational
range of magnetic disturbance over 3-h durations of time as
recorded at individual, mid-latitude, sub-auroral observatories
(Bartels et al., 1939). The aa index is a “planetary”
or “global” index (Mayaud, 1972), derived from K values
collected from a pair of observatories, one in the Northern
Hemisphere (Britain) and one in the Southern Hemisphere
(Australia). Together with the source K indices, aa provides
a record of geomagnetic activity from 1868.0 to the present.

The aa index has been widely used in the analysis of a number
of inter-related issues, including: (1) magnetic-storm occurrence
statistics and time-series analysis (Courtillot et al.,
1977; Gonzalez et al., 1990; Willis et al., 1997), (2) spaceweather
hazards (Boteler et al., 1998; Thomson et al., 2010),
(3) solar-terrestrial interaction (Russell, 1975; Legrand and
Simon, 1989; Pulkkinen et al., 2001; Lockwood, 2005),
(4) solar activity and its prediction (Thompson, 1993; Hathaway
et al., 1999; Fr¨ohlich and Lean, 2004), (5) terrestrial
climate change (Cliver et al., 1998; Friis-Christensen, 2001;
Le Mou¨el et al., 2005), (6) atmospheric ozone depletion
(Jarvis, 2005), and (7) cosmic rays and atmospheric radionuclide
production (Stuiver and Quay, 1980; Beer et al., 1990).
These are subjects of far-reaching consequence, and some
of them are controversial. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising
that the fidelities of the K and aa geomagnetic indices
have been discussed and debated in the scientific literature.
Joselyn (1970) has described the original process
of measuring analog magnetograms for K-index estimation
as being “subjective”. Lanzerotti and Surkan (1974) have
noted that the K-index time series does not have a welldefined
frequency content, especially below diurnal frequencies.
And, even the basic physical meaning of the K index
has remained, long after its introduction, a subject of discussion
(e.g. Menvielle, 1979). As for calculating the global aa
index, Mayaud (1973) identified significant shifts in the statistical
distributions of the source K-index time series, possibly
associated with moving an observatory from one location
to another; this motivated him to introduce weighting
factors for calculating aa. None of this is particularly satisfactory,
nor is it surprising. The K index was developed
before digital-data acquisition, before computer-base timeseries
analysis, and before we had arrived at our modern understanding
of the dynamical interaction of the ionosphere,
magnetosphere, and solar wind. In a search for improved
quantitative measures of global magnetic-field activity, Svalgaard
et al. (2004), and Mursula and Martini (2007), and
other researchers, have proposed new indices.





Sunspot numbers
For comparison of geomagnetic activity with solar activity,
we use sunspot numbers G: for 1868.0–1995.0, solar
cycles 11–22, we use group numbers (Hoyt and Schatten,
1998) obtained from NOAA’s National Geophysical Data
Center (NGDC) website (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov); for 1996.0–
2009.0, solar cycle 23, we use international numbers Z obtained
from the website of the Royal Observatory, Belgium
(http://www.sidc.be). We note that G is more simply defined than
Z, that G is based on more source observations than Z, and
that G is generally considered to be an improvement over
Z (e.g. Hathaway et al., 2002; Kane, 2002). For 1890.0–
1995.0, solar cycles 13–22, G and Z are very consistent, but
earlier on there are some significant discrepancies (see Hoyt
and Schatten, 1998, Fig. 8). This is due, in part, to Wolf’s
(1875) practice of adjusting his estimates of sunspot number
according to an expectation that they should be correlated in
time with ground magnetometer data, which were available
toWolf and his colleagues (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998, p. 497).
We assert that correlations between data sets that have not
been independently acquired are not particularly meaningful
(see, also, Mursula et al., 2009). Therefore, we prefer to use
G rather than Z. We define the beginning and the end times
of each solar cycle, rounded to the nearest year, according to
sunspot-number minima.


Image
Time series for 1868.0–2009.0 and solar cycles 11–23 of (a) annual means of sunspot group number G(t), (b) annual exceedance
count rates e(5,t) for British GAH (red) and Australian MTC (blue) observatory groups, (c) annual occurrence count rates n(0,t) for British
GAH (red) and Australian MTC (blue) observatory groups, (d) annual average of adjusted aaGAH (red), aaMTC (blue), and the standard aa
index (black), (e) ratio of annual averages of unadjusted aMTC/aGAH (green) and adjusted aaMTC/aaGAH (black).



Conclusions
To minimize the effects of statistical noise or unwanted variation,
scientists often average together independently acquired
data sets. For this, care must be taken to ensure that results
are not residual artifacts. Given two data sets drawn
from two different types of distributions, or two distributions
of the same type but having different means and variances,
averaging together pairs of data will result in a distribution
that does not resemble either of the two source distributions.
The average distribution will be a biased representation of
the two source distributions. In general, averaging is most
appropriate if the source distributions are almost identical.
Furthermore, if adjustments are to be made to independent
data distributions, then these should be done on the basis of
a quantitative physical theory. In the context of the analysis
presented here, where we have shown that higher (lower)
K-activity levels tend to be reported at British (Australian)observatories, the two K distributions used to calculate aa
are obviously different. The resulting bias means that it is
probably best to regard the aa index as a qualitative measure
of global geomagnetic activity. We have not explored, here,
the complex issue of geographic bias, but given that the aa
index is derived from data from only two observatories, any
geographic bias would only reinforce our conclusion about
the qualitative nature of this index.


Full read and Source:
[url]http://www.ann-geophys.net/29/1365/2011/angeo-29-1365-2011.pdf
[/url]


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A Very Low Ten Centimetre Solar Radio Flux

On July 18 1996, the observed value of the 10 cm solar flux dropped to a low of 64.9. In many books it is stated that the 10 cm solar flux can not go below a value of 67. For example, the formulae given in the June 1996 edition of the IPS Solar Geophysical Summary show 67.0 as the minimum value. So how can we get a value of 64.9?

The answer is quite interesting - it depends on the orbit of the earth! The earth's orbit is not perfectly circular but is slightly elliptical. In July of each year we are a little further than average from the sun and so solar radiation, including the 10 cm flux, is very slightly weaker than average.

So the 10cm flux will tend to be lower in July than, for example, December when the earth is closer to the sun than its average value. The combination of the extra distance to the sun and the solar minimum conditions have acted to produce this very low flux value.

It is easy to correct for the earth-sun distance and, when this is done, a value of 67.0 is obtained. This is the text book value!

Values of the 10 cm flux are often given in two forms - first as directly observed values and secondly as values corrected for the earth-sun distance variation.

The last time that the observed 10cm flux was at a lower value was on July 26, 1964 when it stood at 64.8. The lowest value ever recored was on July 02, 1954 with a value of 64.4
Source: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/6




Sequences of Spotless Days on the Sun

During September and October of 1996, we experienced a sequence of 37 days in a row during which there were no spots observed on the sun. This sequence is longer than any during recent solar minima - consistent which the current minimum being "deeper" than those during recent solar cycles.

But how does this sequence compare with historical sequences from the record of sunspot observations. The following table makes this comparison for observations since 1900 table.

Year of Sequence Number of Spotless Days
Image

The table shows that the 1996 sequence, whilst impressive, is still considerably shorter than some early in the century. However, a note of caution is required because the coverage of observations was not nearly as good early this century as it is now. A sequence of spotless days can be broken by a single day on which a small spot appears. Lack of coverage by observations could therefore be very important in determining the length of such spotless sequences.

With the above qualification, the sequence in 1996 is still the longest observed in the last 50 years during which good observations have been available.


Source: http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/7


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Here again are some charts for your analysis

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Solar Flux history garphs and source: http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/past_cycle.shtml



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Dark penumbral filaments frequently elongate into the moat
region, and longer ones reach the outer moat region. The elongating
dark penumbral filaments coincide with filamentary structures
that have strong horizontal fields that extend outward from
the penumbra. We present clear examples of bipolar MMFs indicating
a serpentine field with multiple intersections with the
solar photosphere. MMFs with positive and negative polarities
are located along the filamentary structures with strong horizontal
fields.
4. The MMFs that are detached from the penumbral spines
are usually observed in the neighborhood of the elongating dark
penumbral filaments.
The total flux transport rate by the MMFs that are detached
from the penumbral spines is greater than the flux-loss rate of the
sunspot (Kubo et al. 2007a). Therefore, items 1 and 2 above
confirm that convection in the outer penumbra is related to the
flux removal of the sunspot (Kubo et al. 2007b). However, the
magnetic energy density of the penumbral fields is larger than
the kinetic energy density of the penumbral bright features at the
photospheric surface. Converging and downward flows are inferred
in the subsurface convection zone around a stable sunspot
(Zhao et al. 2001), and such flows might be essential to the formation
and sustenance of sunspots (Meyer et al. 1974; Parker
1979, 1992). The appearance of the bright features moving outward
in the outer penumbra suggests subsurface upwelling and
diverging flows. Such flows would work against the stabilization
of the sunspot, and recent MHD simulations showed that magnetic flux is carried away from the spot by subsurface diverging
flows (Heinemann et al. 2007). Meyer et al. (1974) suggested
that small flux tubes diffuse out into the moat region by smallscale
convection beneath the sunspot. The fact that the bright features
and granules appear in the outer penumbra at the location
of the elongating spines (that subsequently become MMFs) supports
this idea.


Image

Another possibility is that Evershed flows detach penumbral
flux and advect it into the moat region. Evershed flows with
supersonic velocities are often observed around the penumbral
outer boundary (Shimizu et al. 2008b). Supersonic flows are also
observed in connection with horizontal fields extending from the
penumbra (Kubo et al. 2007b). The kinetic energy density of
such supersonic flows is larger than the magnetic energy density
of the magnetic fields in the outer penumbra. Nevertheless, the
Hinode SP observations of vector magnetic fields with 0.300 resolution
have confirmed that the Evershed flows are radial outward
flows along those penumbral filaments that have nearly
horizontal fields (Ichimoto et al. 2007).Detachment of theMMFs
is observed when the penumbral horizontal fields elongate into
the moat region. This means that Evershed flows are related not
only to the formation of the bipolar MMFs located along the extending
penumbral horizontal fields, but also to the detachment
of the MMFs from the penumbral spines. The Evershed flows
originate at penumbral bright features that are moving inward in
the inner penumbra (Rimmele & Marino 2006; Ichimoto et al.
2007), and the detachment of MMFs from the penumbra is observed
with penumbral bright features that are moving outward
in the outer penumbra. This suggests the possibility that both
Evershed flows and the detachment of MMFs originate from the
activity of convection below the sunspot penumbra. The relationship
between Evershed flows and sunspot decay also should be
investigated using Doppler and magnetic field measurements of
both high spatial and high temporal resolution.


Extensive read and source: http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/681/2/1677/pdf/0004-637X_681_2_1677.pdf


Info here also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation



That was a lot of data. There is more in the links at sources. The flux and the sunspots are related that is why you see more sun spot info.

You may see that it appears that there is a drop of some of the graphs. Again we have conflicting data in some cases. I am not rained well enough to come to any conclusion on this.

Will there be a new Maunder minimun ?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum I can not say.


They way that the sun spots emit its flux may have some effect on this reading. types of sun spots vairy.


I hope the data provided helps others understand and helps figure out what is happening or happened.

We have only been studying a spec of the time that it has existed. So alot is done on predictions of from data we have since then. It is hard if not impossible to sya what exactly what is going to happen with out knowing events from before our studying.

I may need to look at what I have posted and digest a bit more.This has been alot of data I have research and read the past 2 days. To much for me but I tried to keep it in general terms. trust me there is some mind bending data out there.


Please let me know if this is of any help at all.


I have not decided whether to look at the Mayan relationship or go into the size and structure of sun spots.which may help in the flux association.


I may need a day or two off on this.


Stay well all. :cheers:
ImageImage
Star watchers,Sun,Moon or just space in interest. https://www.darkskywatcher.com/dsw74.html

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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 2:49 am » by The57ironman


good god , man.... :shock:

i'm glad you're doin' what you like doin'.. :flop:

:cheers: shaggie
.

What's at stake is more than 1 small country, it is a big idea,
a new world order,
where diverse nations are drawn together in a common cause
to achieve the universal aspirations of mankind




it's long on new and it's short on order

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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 3:06 am » by Shaggietrip


the57ironman wrote:good god , man.... :shock:

i'm glad you're doin' what you like doin'.. :flop:

:cheers: shaggie



hahaha. Thank you.

Let me say this. I like it but it is getting a bit over whelming. I feel I need to do this because I started this thread and have to have ownership of it. I build cabinets for a living for christ sakes. LOL

I was always in hopes that one with some bit of knowledge would have jumped on board. I do thank those that have.

But trying to debunk some one that may be cherry picking data is rather tough. I thought that I would just find a few things and all would be well. The more I started to dig into it the harder it becomes. Perhaps that is why others may not be to anxious to get into this much. SO much data and reports to look over.

I must say that there is some validity to what was posted by this Patrick Geryl person. But i also see that he is jumping to conclusions. I keep seeing prediction in alot if not all of what I read.

We all know how predictions work. All are working off recent data so to say. Readings are different from one side of the earth to the other.

To say what he is saying is non-sense at this point.[imho]

But I say again I am no scientist just one that looks at the data and makes a conclusion. Its all on interpretation and speculation.


Even the scientists agree to dis-agree then vote on a conclusion.


:cheers:
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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 3:27 am » by The57ironman


in the grand scheme of things , i would have to ask if you think this science is in it's infancy...

kudo's to those who have the where-with-all to stay with it...

myself , a toolmaker and machinist , mad scientist and mathemetician at heart , i appreciate the math involved , though i admit to being a little bit overwhelmed by the ''new'' designations and terminology....

do ''you'' feel there is validity to the assumptions that are being ''taken for granted'' that most folks , including myself , don't even take into account...such as the dimensions given for wavelengths , for example...

(i'm drowning , aren't i...?)


it's all good... :cheers:
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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 3:52 am » by Shaggietrip


the57ironman wrote:in the grand scheme of things , i would have to ask if you think this science is in it's infancy...

kudo's to those who have the where-with-all to stay with it...

myself , a toolmaker and machinist , mad scientist and mathemetician at heart , i appreciate the math involved , though i admit to being a little bit overwhelmed by the ''new'' designations and terminology....

do ''you'' feel there is validity to the assumptions that are being ''taken for granted'' that most folks , including myself , don't even take into account...such as the dimensions given for wavelengths , for example...

(i'm drowning , aren't i...?)


it's all good... :cheers:



Yes I would have to agree with you.

We are are just infants scientifically speaking.

We now have magnetic "tubes" which connect earth to sun and as I have stated before all seem connected in one way. The sun,earth even us run on a frequency. Which of course waves are associated with. The magnetic tube connection is new and would like to learn more about.

But your question is a good one that I am sure has some validity.

Now I am in over my head. Needs research my friend.

Way to open your mind.


:cheers:
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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 7:01 am » by Mrmcnuggets


shaggietrip wrote:Yes I would have to agree with you.

We are are just infants scientifically speaking.

We now have magnetic "tubes" which connect earth to sun and as I have stated before all seem connected in one way. The sun,earth even us run on a frequency. Which of course waves are associated with. The magnetic tube connection is new and would like to learn more about.

But your question is a good one that I am sure has some validity.

Now I am in over my head. Needs research my friend.

Way to open your mind.


:cheers:


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really the only part I enjoyed from esoteric agenda. :flop:
"There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die. "

I AM an endangered species.


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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 7:13 am » by The57ironman


mrmcnuggets wrote:really the only part I enjoyed from esoteric agenda. :flop:

that is a great part of the video.....

.....zero point though..? :think:
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What's at stake is more than 1 small country, it is a big idea,
a new world order,
where diverse nations are drawn together in a common cause
to achieve the universal aspirations of mankind




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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 7:24 am » by Mrmcnuggets


the57ironman wrote:
mrmcnuggets wrote:really the only part I enjoyed from esoteric agenda. :flop:

that is a great part of the video.....

.....zero point though..? :think:



what about zero point? (lol, little lost on where/why you mention it.)
"There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die. "

I AM an endangered species.


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PostTue Jan 17, 2012 7:41 am » by The57ironman


mrmcnuggets wrote:
the57ironman wrote:
mrmcnuggets wrote:really the only part I enjoyed from esoteric agenda. :flop:

that is a great part of the video.....

.....zero point though..? :think:



what about zero point? (lol, little lost on where/why you mention it.)

well...at the end of the mayan calendar and the i-ching(is it..?)we're supposed to be changing our harmonic/vibrational existence...?.... :peep:

frequency/wavelengths from the galactic center and all.... :peep:


:scary: .................. :mrgreen:


i'm here trying to get the ''big'' picture ....... :mrcool:


what do you make of all these sounds being recorded..?.........7 trumpets..... :headscratch:
.

What's at stake is more than 1 small country, it is a big idea,
a new world order,
where diverse nations are drawn together in a common cause
to achieve the universal aspirations of mankind




it's long on new and it's short on order


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