CME's- The Sun, Its Happenings, and Potential

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PostMon Oct 17, 2011 8:56 pm » by Temps13


guys dont forget to use images from the Russian Tesis solar imager too,then people cant say things are just 'artifacts'
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PostTue Oct 18, 2011 6:49 pm » by Shaggietrip


Cme from the 18th of Oct. By the looks of the sun I am expecting some good ones in the next few days. Then again I have been wrong before.


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PostTue Oct 18, 2011 7:31 pm » by Kris75


shaggietrip wrote:Cme from the 18th of Oct. By the looks of the sun I am expecting some good ones in the next few days. Then again I have been wrong before.


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SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Emerging sunspot 1324 produced several significant CMEs(Oct 18th, 2011).

Emerging sunspot 1324 produced several significant CMEs last week when it was on the farside of the sun. Will the action continue now that it is turning to face Earth? Credit: SDO/HMI



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PostWed Oct 19, 2011 7:38 pm » by Kris75


SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Calm Before The Storm? (Oct 19th, 2011).

QUIET SUN: How quiet can a star with eight sunspot groups be? Pretty quiet, it turns out. The sun has that many sunspots and more facing Earth, yet none of them is producing flares. Regard this plot of the sun's X-ray output for the past two days; it has almost flat-lined: Perhaps this is the calm before the storm. Sunspot AR1319 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of such an eruption in the next 24 hours



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PostWed Oct 19, 2011 8:01 pm » by Kris75


THE SUN TODAY: 19 October 2011 - Sungrazing Comet


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PostWed Oct 19, 2011 8:20 pm » by Kris75


SOHO Sun 30.9-18.10 2011


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enjoy !! :)


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PostWed Oct 19, 2011 8:52 pm » by Chronicnerd


Don't have a ton of time right now, but for what it is worth here is a quick run down on what to expect over the next year:

The Sun won't have any major eruption for at least 6 to 9 days, and even then it could be longer due to some other external events that are taking place on the outer-membrane of the Solar System.

Our solar system has been passing through a "cloud" of energy and particles for a good part of this year now that is from a Galaxy that is actually passing through our Galaxy and has had portions of its edges passing through and close to our Solar System. NASA recently discovered, from data collected by both Voyager1 and Voyager2, that the Sun's magnetic poles extend to the edge of the Solar System and form a very similar "protective shield" as our poles do here on Earth...just for the Solar system as a whole. The million+ magnetic poles/fields have a good portion of them extending to the edges of the solar system, and a recent image depicted them almost looking like "cells" that created the sum of the "shell" that surrounds our system.

The "cloud" from the other Galaxy is presently interacting with the edges of the magnetic fields extending from the Sun to the outer membrane, and as such it appears there could be a form of ~possible~ dampening that is taking place.

All sunspots are only producing Alpha-Beta magnetic fields, and as such these are not conducive to heavy flare activity. Sunspots 1302,1305,1306 are rounding the corner and will be entering into the earth-side region sometime mid-next week(10-26-2011'ish time frame). Last known, 1302 and 1305 were harboring Alpha-Beta-Gamma magnetic fields that are conducive to producing higher energetic levels of flares. We won't know more until they round the corner...

For the most part, both Mercury and Venus are aligned with each other and the Sun at this time and most activity is occurring on the left-far-stereo-b side of the Sun. This will change as both planets move apart/become unaligned.

It is difficult to get any truly specific/meaningful information about this "cloud", and as such it could have no influence on the Sun or a good deal....but that really isn't the major concern as December of 2011 should spark the Sun into a more active state as it begins its progression into the Solar Maximum of 2012.

We shouldn't see any major flare activity until no sooner than Mid to Late December of 2011 (if so it shouldn't be higher than X1-X2, but more than likely M class flares) and should expect to see increasing flare activity up until around June-July of 2012. From June-July of 2012 there is a chance of a small "drop off" in solar activity, but that should spark back to life by mid September of 2012. During this time up until June-July of 2013 we should expect to see a much higher quantity of X Class flares and these are expected to be more in the X3-X8 ranges. Whether they will be Earth facing or not is still TBD obviously...as it is impossible to know that far into the future (with current tools and knowledge of the Sun)... but we should expect to see them be in much higher frequency and energetic levels during that time.

Cheers,

-CN

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PostThu Oct 20, 2011 3:48 am » by Shaggietrip


chronicnerd wrote:Don't have a ton of time right now, but for what it is worth here is a quick run down on what to expect over the next year:

The Sun won't have any major eruption for at least 6 to 9 days, and even then it could be longer due to some other external events that are taking place on the outer-membrane of the Solar System.

Our solar system has been passing through a "cloud" of energy and particles for a good part of this year now that is from a Galaxy that is actually passing through our Galaxy and has had portions of its edges passing through and close to our Solar System. NASA recently discovered, from data collected by both Voyager1 and Voyager2, that the Sun's magnetic poles extend to the edge of the Solar System and form a very similar "protective shield" as our poles do here on Earth...just for the Solar system as a whole. The million+ magnetic poles/fields have a good portion of them extending to the edges of the solar system, and a recent image depicted them almost looking like "cells" that created the sum of the "shell" that surrounds our system.

The "cloud" from the other Galaxy is presently interacting with the edges of the magnetic fields extending from the Sun to the outer membrane, and as such it appears there could be a form of ~possible~ dampening that is taking place.

All sunspots are only producing Alpha-Beta magnetic fields, and as such these are not conducive to heavy flare activity. Sunspots 1302,1305,1306 are rounding the corner and will be entering into the earth-side region sometime mid-next week(10-26-2011'ish time frame). Last known, 1302 and 1305 were harboring Alpha-Beta-Gamma magnetic fields that are conducive to producing higher energetic levels of flares. We won't know more until they round the corner...

For the most part, both Mercury and Venus are aligned with each other and the Sun at this time and most activity is occurring on the left-far-stereo-b side of the Sun. This will change as both planets move apart/become unaligned.

It is difficult to get any truly specific/meaningful information about this "cloud", and as such it could have no influence on the Sun or a good deal....but that really isn't the major concern as December of 2011 should spark the Sun into a more active state as it begins its progression into the Solar Maximum of 2012.

We shouldn't see any major flare activity until no sooner than Mid to Late December of 2011 (if so it shouldn't be higher than X1-X2, but more than likely M class flares) and should expect to see increasing flare activity up until around June-July of 2012. From June-July of 2012 there is a chance of a small "drop off" in solar activity, but that should spark back to life by mid September of 2012. During this time up until June-July of 2013 we should expect to see a much higher quantity of X Class flares and these are expected to be more in the X3-X8 ranges. Whether they will be Earth facing or not is still TBD obviously...as it is impossible to know that far into the future (with current tools and knowledge of the Sun)... but we should expect to see them be in much higher frequency and energetic levels during that time.

Cheers,

-CN



Thank you for that info. :flop:

I am still gonna have to wait and see.


Here is what I compiled from today. Please understand that alot of the sources are chopped up or being Calibrated. The vanishing comet part take with a grain of salt. From the last frame that the comet was seen in to the next frames available there is a time gap and the comet is gone.

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PostFri Oct 21, 2011 3:52 am » by Shaggietrip


Only had time for the comet vid. Nothing for the 20th.


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PostFri Oct 21, 2011 4:02 am » by Kris75


SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: M1.6-Class Flare/CME (Oct 20th, 2011).

SOLAR FLARE: This morning at 0325 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M1.6-class solar flare, the first significant eruption in days. Because the blast site was located on the sun's northwestern limb, the flare was not Earth-directed.



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SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE: Sunspot 1324 is Cracking With C-Class Flares (Oct 20th, 2011).

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.



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