CME's- The Sun, Its Happenings, and Potential

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PostThu Oct 04, 2012 1:30 am » by Shaggietrip


This 1st video is open for discussion of course. I am posting for all to think about. I am in know way to make a any scientific opinion on anything for I am not a scientist. Even if you are not, does not mean you have no thoughts worthy of posting. Thoughts and opinions welcomed.


Published on Oct 2, 2012 by ThunderboltsProject


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PostFri Oct 05, 2012 3:54 am » by Shaggietrip


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PostFri Oct 05, 2012 10:37 am » by Shaggietrip


Still a bit early to know if this will be a glancing blow.



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PostWed Oct 10, 2012 3:12 am » by Shaggietrip


Some items from today. There has been some substantial events lately. Would have been cool to see a few from the past few days posted. May be a good time to watch the Sun. Some active regions coming about.


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PostWed Oct 10, 2012 3:19 am » by Newdawnrising


Wow! things are changing faster than i expected. Maximus peak in i'd say 8 weeks or so. Excellent work shaggie.
I know the voices in my head aren't real, but man, sometimes they have some really good ideas.

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PostThu Oct 11, 2012 2:54 am » by The57ironman


Shaggietrip wrote:Some items from today. There has been some substantial events lately. Would have been cool to see a few from the past few days posted. May be a good time to watch the Sun. Some active regions coming about.


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....that's one hell of an image... :owned:



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PostThu Oct 11, 2012 3:03 am » by Shaggietrip


Image






:flop: Ironman, :look: 's + :mrcool:




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Newdawnrising wrote:Wow! things are changing faster than i expected. Maximus peak in i'd say 8 weeks or so. Excellent work shaggie.



Could be..could be.



Here is what i have for today. As promised updates.

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Forecast: Auroral activity will be moderate. Weather permitting, moderate displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin, and Igaluit to as far south as Whitehorse, Ft. McMurray, James Bay and visible low on the horizon as far south as Prince Rupert, Calgary, Minot, Bemidji, Stevens Point, Traverse City and Quebec City, Canada.
Source: [url]http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmerica/2012/10/10
[/url]




Image
Source: http://lasp.colorado.edu/eve/data_access/quicklook/quicklook_data/L0CS/latest_sam.png


Image
Source: http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/modelEUV/index.html



Image
Source: http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/index.html




Image

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PostThu Oct 11, 2012 3:18 am » by Shaggietrip


Almost forgot the report for today.

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Oct 10 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. A pair of M1 x-ray events
were produced at 09/2331Z and 10/0504Z by a new region which has not
yet rotated around the southeast limb. Region 1589 (N13E61) remains
the largest and most complex group on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for moderate levels over the next three days (11-13
October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at minor storm conditions, due
to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream coupled with
residual and lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions then
followed and continued for the remainder of the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels on day
one (11 October) as coronal hole effects continue. Mostly quiet
conditions are forecast for days two and three (12-13 October).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 112
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 032/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05

Source: http://www.solarham.net/swpc.htm






Stay well all. 8hrs till I have to get back to my slavery. In hope of posting my Summers work vid this weekend. I hope all is well with you and yours. Until tomorrow ...stay cool dont be a fool.



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PostThu Oct 11, 2012 3:38 am » by Shaggietrip


The star/ripple effects that are shown in images are from the solar flares. The explination of which i can get into at this time. I am now 7:20 hrs out from being at work. Need food and sleep.


As Ironman pointed out in this image...

Image





here is another example.


Image





Newdawnrising has voiced that he would like to help out in ChronicNerds absence . Well here you go Newdawnrising please help out htis thread and explain the dynamics of a flare ejecta ect. As far as why it looks the way it does on image may have to be explained by a expert in that field.


I do hope to see a post from anyone on what is posted above. If not I will try to explain if time allows tomorrow.






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PostFri Oct 12, 2012 1:50 am » by Shaggietrip


Todays post...




Image
Image


Real time Aurora

Image


Source: http://spaceweather.com/gallery/index.php?title=aurora&title2=lights







Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N12E49) was
responsible for the largest flare of the period; a C4 x-ray flare at
11/0804Z. Region 1589 is currently the most complex region with a
Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. New Region 1590 (S29E59)
rotated onto the southeast limb and was numbered today. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity for the forecast period
(12-14 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, was slightly elevated between approximately 440 to
500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-2 (12-13 October). On day 3
(14 October) a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move
into geoeffective position causing quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance for active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 117
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/30


Source: http://www.solarham.net/







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Source:
http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/seeds/dailymkmovie.php?cme=20121011&r


All I got. Due back to work in 9hrs. My 1.5 hrs of free time has just ended. Stay well.




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