CME's- The Sun, Its Happenings, and Potential
- Shaggietrip
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- Posts: 3734
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:11 am
- Location: Earth
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Sat Oct 13, 2012 2:44 am » by Shaggietrip
Hope all are well. Here is something for today.
________
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was
responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at
12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic
classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a
bipolar D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare
during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and
550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled
with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period
between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 122
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40
Source: http://www.solarham.net/swpc.htm
________
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was
responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at
12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic
classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a
bipolar D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare
during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed,
measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and
550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled
with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period
between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days
2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with
a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region
1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/05/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 122
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40
Source: http://www.solarham.net/swpc.htm
- Shaggietrip
-
- Posts: 3734
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:11 am
- Location: Earth
Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:43 pm » by Shaggietrip
I may make a video of my own later. I will keep an eye open for events. Here are some details from recent events.
Dr.K.Strong
Trudi Kay
Something wicked comes this way. Shown @ 4:00
Source: http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/space-weather-station/
Dr.K.Strong
Trudi Kay
Something wicked comes this way. Shown @ 4:00
Source: http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/space-weather-station/
- Chronicnerd
- Posts: 956
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:15 am
Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:16 pm » by Chronicnerd
http://www.windowsphoneapplist.com/en/S ... 26271.html
For anyone with a Windows Phone (7.5 Mango release). Pretty darned cool solar monitoring tool...
For anyone with a Windows Phone (7.5 Mango release). Pretty darned cool solar monitoring tool...
- Shaggietrip
-
- Posts: 3734
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:11 am
- Location: Earth
Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:10 am » by Shaggietrip
Chronicnerd wrote:http://www.windowsphoneapplist.com/en/SolarMax-a126271.html
For anyone with a Windows Phone (7.5 Mango release). Pretty darned cool solar monitoring tool...
Great to see you stop in CN you are truly missed by many. Thank you for that link I do hope those with access to that app use it.
___________
Stunning video [full screen this one]
Trudi Kay
__________
Hope all is well CN, Thanks again for popping in.
Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:43 am » by kentrb
good day shaggie
not sure if you have seen these before or not.
there is some good koolaid in them,part two in particular.
not sure if you have seen these before or not.
there is some good koolaid in them,part two in particular.
- Shaggietrip
-
- Posts: 3734
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:11 am
- Location: Earth
Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:21 am » by Shaggietrip
Fossileyesed wrote:good day shaggie
not sure if you have seen these before or not.
there is some good koolaid in them,part two in particular.
Now that is some juicy koolaid. Great post.
I have seen a few of this guys videos but not the 2 posted. - Shaggietrip
-
- Posts: 3734
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:11 am
- Location: Earth
Fri Oct 19, 2012 1:58 am » by Shaggietrip
I will use my time to bitch.
Ho fracking ra. We sent a man on the moon...cough,cough.
All these damn satellites grasping all these beautiful images for us. But I am starting to get a bit pissed off that we are floating around Earth spying and doing some mundane science tests for grade schools. WTF!!! This is a bit nerve racking for me. We went to the moon.[cough again] Spoon feed images from items we send out to collect data. By Scientist that have been to the moon but say...
An ionosphere made of dust instead of gas is new to planetary science. No one knows how it will behave at different times of night and day or at different phases of the solar cycle, or how it might affect future radio communications and navigation on the Moon. NASA's ARTEMIS probes (orbiting the Moon now) and the LADEE spacecraft (scheduled to launch in 2013 specifically for the purpose of studying the lunar exosphere) may yet reveal its habits.
Source: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/14nov_lunarionosphere/
Get to work people or spill your guts. I am with others. Send my ass up to prove it. But I will not pay only die to prove the B.S.
________________
Todays report.
_________________
An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano
Normal and inverse polarity of Earth.
15.10.2012 | Potsdam: 41,000 years ago, a complete and rapid reversal of the geomagnetic field occured. Magnetic studies of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences on sediment cores from the Black Sea show that during this period, during the last ice age, a compass at the Black Sea would have pointed to the south instead of north. Moreover, data obtained by the research team formed around GFZ researchers Dr. Norbert Nowaczyk and Prof. Helge Arz, together with additional data from other studies in the North Atlantic, the South Pacific and Hawaii, prove that this polarity reversal was a global event. Their results are published in the latest issue of the scientific journal "Earth and Planetary Science Letters".
What is remarkable is the speed of the reversal: "The field geometry of reversed polarity, with field lines pointing into the opposite direction when compared to today's configuration, lasted for only about 440 years, and it was associated with a field strength that was only one quarter of today's field," explains Norbert Nowaczyk. "The actual polarity changes lasted only 250 years. In terms of geological time scales, that is very fast." During this period, the field was even weaker, with only 5% of today's field strength. As a consequence, the Earth nearly completely lost its protection shield against hard cosmic rays, leading to a significantly increased radiation exposure. This is documented by peaks of radioactive beryllium (10Be) in ice cores from this time, recovered from the Greenland ice sheet. 10Be as well as radioactive carbon (14C) is caused by the collision of high-energy protons from space with atoms of the atmosphere.
The Laschamp event
The polarity reversal now found with the magnetisation of Black Sea sediments has already been known for 45 years. It was first discovered after the analysis of the magnetisation of several lava flows near the village Laschamp near Clermont-Ferrand in the Massif Central, which differed significantly from today’s direction of the geomagnetic field. Since then, this geomagnetic feature is known as the 'Laschamp event'. However, the data of the Massif Central represent only some point readings of the geomagnetic field during the last ice age, whereas the new data from the Black Sea give a complete image of geomagnetic field variability at a high temporal resolution.
Source:
http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/portal/gfz/Public+Relations/Pressemitteilungen/aktuell/121016_PolarReversal;jsessionid=CE3FA14DDA01BECD93AA29D52EA99B5D?template=gfz
?????????? I need vacation.
Later all see ya soon.
Ho fracking ra. We sent a man on the moon...cough,cough.
All these damn satellites grasping all these beautiful images for us. But I am starting to get a bit pissed off that we are floating around Earth spying and doing some mundane science tests for grade schools. WTF!!! This is a bit nerve racking for me. We went to the moon.[cough again] Spoon feed images from items we send out to collect data. By Scientist that have been to the moon but say...
An ionosphere made of dust instead of gas is new to planetary science. No one knows how it will behave at different times of night and day or at different phases of the solar cycle, or how it might affect future radio communications and navigation on the Moon. NASA's ARTEMIS probes (orbiting the Moon now) and the LADEE spacecraft (scheduled to launch in 2013 specifically for the purpose of studying the lunar exosphere) may yet reveal its habits.
Source: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/14nov_lunarionosphere/
Get to work people or spill your guts. I am with others. Send my ass up to prove it. But I will not pay only die to prove the B.S.
________________
Todays report.
_________________
An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano
Normal and inverse polarity of Earth.
15.10.2012 | Potsdam: 41,000 years ago, a complete and rapid reversal of the geomagnetic field occured. Magnetic studies of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences on sediment cores from the Black Sea show that during this period, during the last ice age, a compass at the Black Sea would have pointed to the south instead of north. Moreover, data obtained by the research team formed around GFZ researchers Dr. Norbert Nowaczyk and Prof. Helge Arz, together with additional data from other studies in the North Atlantic, the South Pacific and Hawaii, prove that this polarity reversal was a global event. Their results are published in the latest issue of the scientific journal "Earth and Planetary Science Letters".
What is remarkable is the speed of the reversal: "The field geometry of reversed polarity, with field lines pointing into the opposite direction when compared to today's configuration, lasted for only about 440 years, and it was associated with a field strength that was only one quarter of today's field," explains Norbert Nowaczyk. "The actual polarity changes lasted only 250 years. In terms of geological time scales, that is very fast." During this period, the field was even weaker, with only 5% of today's field strength. As a consequence, the Earth nearly completely lost its protection shield against hard cosmic rays, leading to a significantly increased radiation exposure. This is documented by peaks of radioactive beryllium (10Be) in ice cores from this time, recovered from the Greenland ice sheet. 10Be as well as radioactive carbon (14C) is caused by the collision of high-energy protons from space with atoms of the atmosphere.
The Laschamp event
The polarity reversal now found with the magnetisation of Black Sea sediments has already been known for 45 years. It was first discovered after the analysis of the magnetisation of several lava flows near the village Laschamp near Clermont-Ferrand in the Massif Central, which differed significantly from today’s direction of the geomagnetic field. Since then, this geomagnetic feature is known as the 'Laschamp event'. However, the data of the Massif Central represent only some point readings of the geomagnetic field during the last ice age, whereas the new data from the Black Sea give a complete image of geomagnetic field variability at a high temporal resolution.
Source:
http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/portal/gfz/Public+Relations/Pressemitteilungen/aktuell/121016_PolarReversal;jsessionid=CE3FA14DDA01BECD93AA29D52EA99B5D?template=gfz
?????????? I need vacation.
Later all see ya soon.
- The57ironman
-
- Posts: 15438
- Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:20 am
- Location: going off the rails on the crazy train
Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:53 am » by The57ironman
.....wrinkles are something other people have, similar to my character lines.
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