CME's- The Sun, Its Happenings, and Potential

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PostSun Dec 09, 2012 2:01 am » by Shaggietrip


Chaindrive wrote:I dont know how relevant it is, but I look at:

http://www.solarham.net/

Just to see what the aurora is doing, I missed what it looked like from the aurora camera, but it was one helluva show, it stretch all the way down to Kansas city almost (guessing) between 2006 - 2009 (dont remember when).

anyway... just looking at it now and Ive never seen the solar winds so low:

Image

Too bad that Shaggietrip and Muchtymanm dont post these videos with the ACE Real-Time Solar Wind detector, some of this has to hit the earth, especially when they alter the footage, cant cover up everything, no matter how much they try. Even the aurora map as well might have something interesting too. If theres a massive spike on the sun it should effect wind speeds, polarity and aurora readings here on earth even within a 45 degree angle.

And the sun images from the satellites being in 2D, one cant really tell which way it spreads out.

Just a thought. :headscratch:




I will try to include ACE a bit more. Thank you for the post and the suggestion.





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Finally had time to put something together. Enjoy


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PostSun Dec 09, 2012 2:23 am » by The57ironman


.

.....awesome shaggie..... :cheers:


...rather uneventful then , eh'..?


.
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PostSun Dec 09, 2012 11:35 pm » by Shaggietrip


Here is a bad attempt to sync some things up from ACE. My first attempt and yes it took about 3hrs for this crappy video. I dont think I will achieve what I want with the warez I have. At least i gave it a shot. I may try another time.


I tried Chaindrive


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PostSun Dec 09, 2012 11:40 pm » by E6722maj


good job Shaggie. your dedication to this thread is inspirational. kudos my friend :cheers:

.
whatever

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PostSun Dec 09, 2012 11:45 pm » by Shaggietrip


E6722maj wrote:good job Shaggie. your dedication to this thread is inspirational. kudos my friend :cheers:

.



Thank you Emaj. I needed something good after struggling to get that last post together. I may have to try to run some higher end warez on this pc. I doubt if it will work. It locks up enough with what I attempt to do at this time.




I will take this opportunity to thank everyone that visits and comment/posts on this thread.




Stay well :cheers:
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PostSun Dec 09, 2012 11:48 pm » by The57ironman


.

.......yes , keep up the good work shaggie....



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PostTue Dec 11, 2012 3:47 am » by Shaggietrip


Todays video is more like the usual videos. I will try to change things up just a bit when I have time to figure out a newer format or different regular items to include. I do not want the videos to be to long. It may become boring and or take me to long to produce. I will do what I can time providing. Today my time was a bit short. At least there were some events to capture.

I had to just grab some music so the fit is not the best.


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No other real updates to include today. Stay well. :cheers:
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PostTue Dec 11, 2012 6:17 am » by Rich316


Thanks for the vids shaggie! I keep checking back in and watching.

It does seem the ramp up to this 2012 thing is falling short with the sun so quiet.. You would think we'd be seeing much more by now with only 10 days or so to go? I remember over the past few years more scientists were coming out and saying the earth would cool over the coming decades because the sun going to sleep.. So unless there is a massive delay in this cycle, it is on target for a much lower key solar max than the other side had predicted.. Everything just appears as usual.

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PostWed Dec 12, 2012 2:25 am » by Shaggietrip


Rich316
It does seem the ramp up to this 2012 thing is falling short with the sun so quiet.. You would think we'd be seeing much more by now with only 10 days or so to go? I remember over the past few years more scientists were coming out and saying the earth would cool over the coming decades because the sun going to sleep.. So unless there is a massive delay in this cycle, it is on target for a much lower key solar max than the other side had predicted.. Everything just appears as usual.





This post may jump all over. I hope some makes some sense and is worth your time. It somwhat touches on Rich316 post.




Solar max is the period of greatest solar activity in the solar cycle of the sun. During solar maxima, large numbers of sunspots appear. A solar maximum is the period when the sun's magnetic field lines are the most distorted due to the magnetic field on the solar equator rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles. The solar cycle takes an average of about 11 years to go from one solar maximum to the next, with an observed variation in duration of 9 to 14 years for any given solar cycle.


The last solar maximum was in 2000. The next solar maximum is currently predicted to occur in February 2013 and to be one of the weakest cycles since 1928. The unreliability of solar maxima predictions is demonstrated in that NASA had previously predicted the solar maximum for 2010/2011 and possibly to occur as late as 2012. Previously, on March 10, 2006, NASA researchers had announced that the next solar maximum would be the strongest since the historic maximum in 1859 in which the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42¡ north of the equator, by 2011, this appeared to be incorrect. In fact, the solar maximum will be a fairly weak one.




I will try and touch on this weak Solar Max and or Delay of. This will be a very general view.



There has been both in history. Weak Solar Max...

Image




Slow Starting Max...

Image




Here is the graph with out highlights. You may interpret it differently as I have put it.


Image


Source: http://www.crystalinks.com/sun.html




____




There is so much conflicting data. Read the above copy paste. Solar Max predicted in Feb 2013. Then continues to say it will be its weakest. Stay with me... In same paragraph they say the opposite as far as intensity.



Are you confused? So am I ! .....Houston Mission accomplished. Well here is how it works.Scientists analyze data and come to different conclusion. Just like all of us here, but for us sheeple they are called opinions. Because these scientists have came up through the "ranks" so to say they are the ones that get "print/voice" lack of a better word atm.

So now there is a collective of scientist with opposing conclusions. At times they vote for a descicion. [ I may have gone over in this thread or another.] In this case of Solor Max there is no agreement. Thus they must post/print both views because there are respected in the field. Leaving us [sheeple] to pick a side. Role the dice I guess.

Image



I role those dice also. It is all conjecture, some times they role in our favor.


Now for this just posted yesterday.


NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there.

Source and full read: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/10/solar-cycle-24-still-in-a-slump/




Now to my point. We do not KNOW ! Lets share the ride for the next year and find out.It may be hard for me to keep this up for one more year. I suppose it depends on the Sun.






Note: I could have posted much data on the items of solar minimums and slow starting max but much I have already posted somewhere :D and would take some time to re-post. Simple searches of key words google or otherwise may get you there faster for an answer/verification.







_________________




Shit almost forgot. Here is a update from Dr.K.Strong. The tail end you may have seen somewhere else already.



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Ramblings of Shaggietrip
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PostThu Dec 13, 2012 2:56 am » by Shaggietrip


I have only one thing to post today. Feel free to post thoughts or anything of interests of the topic.


This video i am posting is from TrudyKay. In my opinion in the top ranking of Sun posters. Granted she does not post daily. But her videos are a full screen watch. Now this is a bit long. That is why I waited to watch it. So I could enjoy it. I suggest doing the same. But if your time is a bit short and want to see more to date related info/images jump to 6:10. Before that may be older news but a different visual. I thought some may want to see so that is my post for today.



Enjoy



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