CME's- The Sun, Its Happenings, and Potential

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PostTue Dec 11, 2012 6:17 am » by Rich316


Thanks for the vids shaggie! I keep checking back in and watching.

It does seem the ramp up to this 2012 thing is falling short with the sun so quiet.. You would think we'd be seeing much more by now with only 10 days or so to go? I remember over the past few years more scientists were coming out and saying the earth would cool over the coming decades because the sun going to sleep.. So unless there is a massive delay in this cycle, it is on target for a much lower key solar max than the other side had predicted.. Everything just appears as usual.

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PostWed Dec 12, 2012 2:25 am » by Shaggietrip


Rich316
It does seem the ramp up to this 2012 thing is falling short with the sun so quiet.. You would think we'd be seeing much more by now with only 10 days or so to go? I remember over the past few years more scientists were coming out and saying the earth would cool over the coming decades because the sun going to sleep.. So unless there is a massive delay in this cycle, it is on target for a much lower key solar max than the other side had predicted.. Everything just appears as usual.





This post may jump all over. I hope some makes some sense and is worth your time. It somwhat touches on Rich316 post.




Solar max is the period of greatest solar activity in the solar cycle of the sun. During solar maxima, large numbers of sunspots appear. A solar maximum is the period when the sun's magnetic field lines are the most distorted due to the magnetic field on the solar equator rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles. The solar cycle takes an average of about 11 years to go from one solar maximum to the next, with an observed variation in duration of 9 to 14 years for any given solar cycle.


The last solar maximum was in 2000. The next solar maximum is currently predicted to occur in February 2013 and to be one of the weakest cycles since 1928. The unreliability of solar maxima predictions is demonstrated in that NASA had previously predicted the solar maximum for 2010/2011 and possibly to occur as late as 2012. Previously, on March 10, 2006, NASA researchers had announced that the next solar maximum would be the strongest since the historic maximum in 1859 in which the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42¡ north of the equator, by 2011, this appeared to be incorrect. In fact, the solar maximum will be a fairly weak one.




I will try and touch on this weak Solar Max and or Delay of. This will be a very general view.



There has been both in history. Weak Solar Max...

Image




Slow Starting Max...

Image




Here is the graph with out highlights. You may interpret it differently as I have put it.


Image


Source: http://www.crystalinks.com/sun.html




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There is so much conflicting data. Read the above copy paste. Solar Max predicted in Feb 2013. Then continues to say it will be its weakest. Stay with me... In same paragraph they say the opposite as far as intensity.



Are you confused? So am I ! .....Houston Mission accomplished. Well here is how it works.Scientists analyze data and come to different conclusion. Just like all of us here, but for us sheeple they are called opinions. Because these scientists have came up through the "ranks" so to say they are the ones that get "print/voice" lack of a better word atm.

So now there is a collective of scientist with opposing conclusions. At times they vote for a descicion. [ I may have gone over in this thread or another.] In this case of Solor Max there is no agreement. Thus they must post/print both views because there are respected in the field. Leaving us [sheeple] to pick a side. Role the dice I guess.

Image



I role those dice also. It is all conjecture, some times they role in our favor.


Now for this just posted yesterday.


NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there.

Source and full read: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/10/solar-cycle-24-still-in-a-slump/




Now to my point. We do not KNOW ! Lets share the ride for the next year and find out.It may be hard for me to keep this up for one more year. I suppose it depends on the Sun.






Note: I could have posted much data on the items of solar minimums and slow starting max but much I have already posted somewhere :D and would take some time to re-post. Simple searches of key words google or otherwise may get you there faster for an answer/verification.







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Shit almost forgot. Here is a update from Dr.K.Strong. The tail end you may have seen somewhere else already.



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Ramblings of Shaggietrip
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PostThu Dec 13, 2012 2:56 am » by Shaggietrip


I have only one thing to post today. Feel free to post thoughts or anything of interests of the topic.


This video i am posting is from TrudyKay. In my opinion in the top ranking of Sun posters. Granted she does not post daily. But her videos are a full screen watch. Now this is a bit long. That is why I waited to watch it. So I could enjoy it. I suggest doing the same. But if your time is a bit short and want to see more to date related info/images jump to 6:10. Before that may be older news but a different visual. I thought some may want to see so that is my post for today.



Enjoy



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PostSat Dec 15, 2012 12:56 pm » by Bosb33r


Sun Sunspots 2012-12-15 :sunny:


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PostTue Dec 18, 2012 4:18 am » by Shaggietrip


Bosb33r wrote:Sun Sunspots 2012-12-15 :sunny:


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Thank you for posting Bosb33r. The 33 in your nick intrigues me a bit [hemispherically speaking] . :flop:





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I did take time to get this together. I will view the final cut as some will for the 1st time.


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My time will be short till mid Jan. Will do what I can for updates. I may be lurking now but post may be sparse. Feel free to step in and post some things of interest.



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PostWed Dec 19, 2012 3:41 am » by Shaggietrip


Did what I could,No data.


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PostThu Dec 20, 2012 1:24 am » by Rich316


I've been watching http://www.solarham.net/index.htm M class flare risk dropped from 15% all week to 5% today and x class has been at 1% for the past few weeks too.

And Dr Strong's videos are great. http://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers

Certainly no signs of doom from the sun at this stage.. All points to normal..

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PostSun Dec 23, 2012 10:54 pm » by Shaggietrip


Rich316 wrote:I've been watching http://www.solarham.net/index.htm M class flare risk dropped from 15% all week to 5% today and x class has been at 1% for the past few weeks too.

And Dr Strong's videos are great. http://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers

Certainly no signs of doom from the sun at this stage.. All points to normal..



Nice post Rich316. You could add a few images or data/info to your posts. Would be interesting to see what you are following. I agree Dr.K.Strong does have some great videos also. Feel free to post more. :flop:








I stole time today to get this together. I did loose some of the better footage but could not justify the time to go get it again. I hope you enjoy.


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Skyywatcher88 had a update for yesterday. I will post it also.


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Skyywatcher88


____________



FARSIDE ERUPTION: No strong flares have issued from the sun in weeks, but solar activity might not be as low as it seems. The farside of the sun is increasingly restless. On Dec. 21st, multiple CMEs flew over the edge of the solar disk, and today NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft observed a filament erupting on the farside. The blast site is circled in this extreme ultraviolet image taken on Dec. 23rd at 11:15 UT:

Image
Source: http://www.spaceweather.com/



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PostWed Dec 26, 2012 1:15 pm » by Bosb33r


Sun Sunspots 2012-12-26 :flop:


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PostThu Dec 27, 2012 2:56 am » by Shaggietrip


Bosb33r wrote:Sun Sunspots 2012-12-26 :flop:


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Thank you for that post. I kind of thought of a smiley face watching that. Nice footage and thank you again.






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Much ramblings in this one. It will explain itself





I trust everyones Holiday went well...? If you do not care about Holidays all the best to you also.

I will cherry pick some items for you. Reason in OP Note.







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Best of luck making it through this. But it does bring up "Some" Good points. "ok there you are" Love the way she talks or puts things hang in there.


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Yes It has been a bit slow. Even Sunwatchers that post daily are slacking. There is other thing they or i could be posting.Earth facing. I have inquired on the fact of the solar activity increases back side. Then settling down on Earth facing. Some of those that have been watching may have thought this. Well I am not the only one. Still no answers of reason from those that "know" as of yet. They have observed the same thing and say it is not in my head. Yes I know my Dec prediction will fail. As others I am tunnel visioned. The backside is as important as the front. It may tell tales of happenings elsewhere. An over arching view so to say. I have failed in my activity prediction but have opened doors on her backside.

That said I will try to search out some data on backside activity. But this computer sucks ass with certificate pop up along with others. I strive to get the info to you as painfull as it is.




OP Note:
My posts will be naught for perhaps 7 days. As far as video ect. I finally crashed another. I am shopping for a new box now. My prb is most the software I have is 32bit. I see only 64bit In the newer boxes. I have depleted my parts I have had laying around. Yes I have one on my room but not online, I will never go wireless.. That said I am now on Zewifes to check on things and stay up to date. TV sucks but I did catch a good Nova. Many of you right now are asking yourself why the fuck am I reading this? Got me thats the shit I am in! I will try to buy a new box on friday. All I see are 64bit which is fine. I have a max of $700 american to spend. I see some pretty good offers but most are on board video which shivers me bones. I need 2 monitor access. Thank you for your read time. Send any any advice on the comp issue. 60hrs till I buy. tick tock.



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