Galaxy Should Have Been Colonized By Now

[Demobe Profile]

New mathematical study reveals that our Galaxy should have been colonized by now




A recent article in the Economist alerted me to a recent paper by Thomas Hair and Andrew Hedman that profoundly reaffirms the conundrum that is the Fermi Paradox, an observational problem that is sometimes referred to as the Great Silence.

What's fascinating about the Hair and Hedman paper is that they are not cosmologists or astrobiologists, but rather mathematicians—and it is through the lens of number-cruching that they sought an answer to the question of how long it would take a civilization to colonize its local region given a specific set of parameters. And their findings are disturbing: No matter how they reworked the numbers, they came to the same conclusion: the Galaxy should be colonized by now:

To arrive at their conclusion Dr Hair and Mr Hedman assumed that outer space is dotted with solar systems, about five light years apart. They then asked how quickly a single civilisation armed with the requisite technology would spread its tentacles, depending on the degree of colonising zeal, expressed as the probability that intelligent beings decide to hop from one planet to the next in 1,000 years (500 years for the trip, at a modest one-tenth of the speed of light, and another 500 years to prepare for the next hop).

All these numbers are necessarily moot. If the vast majority of planets is not suitable, for instance, the average distance for a successful expedition might be much more than five light years. And advanced beings might not need five Earth centuries to get up to speed before they redeploy. However, Dr Hair and Mr Hedman can tweak their probabilities to reflect a range of possible conditions. Using what they believe to be conservative assumptions (as low as one chance in four of embarking on a colonising mission in 1,000 years), they calculated that any galactic empire would have spread outwards from its home planet at about 0.25% of the speed of light. The result is that after 50m years it would extend over 130,000 light years, with zealous colonisers moving in a relatively uniform cloud and more reticent ones protruding from a central blob. Since the Milky Way is estimated to be 100,000-120,000 light years across, outposts would be sprinkled throughout the galaxy, even if the home planet were, like Earth, located on the periphery.

Crucially, even in slow-expansion scenario, the protrusions eventually coalesce. After 250,000 years, which the model has so far had the time to simulate, the biggest gaps are no larger than 30 light years across. Dr Hair thinks they should grow no bigger as his virtual colonisation progresses. That is easily small enough for man's first sufficiently powerful radio transmissions (in the early 20th century) to have been detected and for a reply to have reached Earth (which has been actively listening out for such messages since the 1960s). And though 50m years may sound a lot, if intelligent life did evolve more than once, it could easily have done so billions of years before this happened on Earth. All this suggests, Dr Hair and Mr Hedman fear, that humans really do have the Milky Way to themselves. Either that or the neighbours are a particularly timid bunch.

So, the next time somebody smugly shrugs off the Fermi Pardox by suggesting that "it takes too long to colonize the Galaxy" or that "there hasn't been enough time," or that "the Galaxy is too big," tell them to shut-up and read this paper.
LOL

http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/201 ... t-our.html

[Lifexp Profile]

Good read but I disagree. These are just hypothesis and no substantial evidence. Maybe the galaxy isnt colonized because there is giant space creatures that eat metal. I dont believe this but what if? This is just an example of why these theories and predictions dont work

[Mrmcnuggets Profile]

Good read but I disagree. These are just hypothesis and no substantial evidence. Maybe the galaxy isnt colonized because there is giant space creatures that eat metal. I dont believe this but what if? This is just an example of why these theories and predictions dont work

this theory is plausible because it is "mathematically sound" in layman's terms.
They don't work because we spend (US) hundreds of trillions in the past decade alone, on police actions and resources for them. We spend x more amount of money to pay people to sit on their ass, instead of giving them a job responsible for and so on.

The budget that NASA had when Apollo went to the Moon, if was put into todays market and monitory system, would not even compare to half of what we have spent this past 10 years on war budgets.

Anyways, spaceship eating monsters are not a variable that needs to be included in figuring out this equation. Imo. It is just a simple time lapse estimate, based on distance, and evolutionary expansion percentage, in combination with the technology that civilization can grasp from the starting period. Given, that each solar system was plotted at 5 light years away, is the only questionable (included)variable here. A variable not included though(in the report above at least) is the amount of habitable planets in the galaxy. - Being the only limiting factor. Though even if they calculated each solar system to have one or less habitable planets, the percentage of that in combination with expansion rates and the knowledge at the time, we should definitely be somewhere further than we are now.

With out a doubt.

[Lifexp Profile]

Good read but I disagree. These are just hypothesis and no substantial evidence. Maybe the galaxy isnt colonized because there is giant space creatures that eat metal. I dont believe this but what if? This is just an example of why these theories and predictions dont work

this theory is plausible because it is "mathematically sound" in layman's terms.
They don't work because we spend (US) hundreds of trillions in the past decade alone, on police actions and resources for them. We spend x more amount of money to pay people to sit on their ass, instead of giving them a job responsible for and so on.

The budget that NASA had when Apollo went to the Moon, if was put into todays market and monitory system, would not even compare to half of what we have spent this past 10 years on war budgets.

Anyways, spaceship eating monsters are not a variable that needs to be included in figuring out this equation. Imo. It is just a simple time lapse estimate, based on distance, and evolutionary expansion percentage, in combination with the technology that civilization can grasp from the starting period. Given, that each solar system was plotted at 5 light years away, is the only questionable (included)variable here. A variable not included though(in the report above at least) is the amount of habitable planets in the galaxy. - Being the only limiting factor. Though even if they calculated each solar system to have one or less habitable planets, the percentage of that in combination with expansion rates and the knowledge at the time, we should definitely be somewhere further than we are now.

With out a doubt.

Obviously there isnt space ship eating monsters but mathematical equations cant tell us where we should be by now because math doesnt know what our government knows. Does math factor in radiation issues??????

[The57ironman Profile]

i gotta go with .... "giant space creatures that eat metal "...





(we don't get to interact with many visitors.......because we ''stink''...)

great post..!

[Lifexp Profile]

Anti gravity can we do it?It is a good post but what is we do stink

[Debunkerace Profile]

expressed as the probability that intelligent beings decide to hop from one planet to the next in 1,000 years (500 years for the trip, at a modest one-tenth of the speed of light, and another 500 years to prepare for the next hop).

Bad math i'd say, intelligent humans has roamed the earth for at least 50.000-100.000 years, maybe even a lot longer, and we haven't left yet.

[Caz240 Profile]

we are being colonized! and by the time the people work it out it'll be too late!

[Earthspirit7 Profile]

So we are still so arrogant...who says it isn't colonized out there...scientists??
Science isn't the answer to everything...just wait and see.

[Demobe Profile]

100 Years in 10 Minutes (1911 - 2011 in 10 Minutes)


Mc


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