Ison 2013

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PostSun Dec 01, 2013 7:46 pm » by Chronicnerd


Chronicnerd wrote:Hey Shaggie,
Will get to your questions sometime tomorrow.

As for the size, currently my personal opinion is that Ison had fragmented back when it had an explosion occur. The fragments were kept together by the heavily ionized fields prior to them being stripped from the flare. Once that happened, they started drifting apart, which in turn makes the nucleus appear to be much larger than it was when it first entered the system. I could be wrong on this, but the newer images are showing what looks like several large chunks floating in the same general direction.

This is potentially good because the fragments could end up vaporizing during its closest transit around the sun, but could be bad if the larger chunks make it and end up shooting out in more unexpected directions.

I will look over your questions in the AM and answer them as best as I can.

However, I would have to say for now it looks like the larger coma was due to drifting chunks that were causing a wider diameter of the coma...as some have made silly calculations that its nucleus is several thousand miles in diameter...which...my bet is on fragmentation and drifting chunks.


I am willing to bet that it still fragmented prior to its approach which explains the rapid expansion of the coma. This also explains the rapid depletion...and what we are looking at from this point forward is the larger remaining chunk(s) that didn't melt.

Still doesn't mean we won't see it around dec 3rd-forward...just it was greatly reduced in size....

:sunny:

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PostSun Dec 01, 2013 8:14 pm » by The57ironman


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PostMon Dec 02, 2013 12:08 am » by Toxic32


Toxic32 wrote:Does the fact that a significant chunk of Ison survived the encounter with the sun mean it could pose a threat to us in anyway. I assume Ison lost a significant amount of mass during the flyby, with that in mind would it affect the predicted slingshot path around the sun. Smaller mass tighter the turn and faster speed? Maybe it could hit us if that was the case.

Looking at the video it didn't seem to follow the predicted path?



I just came across this...Very interesting.


http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a07_1385927086
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PostMon Dec 02, 2013 1:36 am » by Mydogma


Toxic32 wrote:
Toxic32 wrote:Does the fact that a significant chunk of Ison survived the encounter with the sun mean it could pose a threat to us in anyway. I assume Ison lost a significant amount of mass during the flyby, with that in mind would it affect the predicted slingshot path around the sun. Smaller mass tighter the turn and faster speed? Maybe it could hit us if that was the case.

Looking at the video it didn't seem to follow the predicted path?



I just came across this...Very interesting.


http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a07_1385927086


good one...nice how he throws in the plague association to comets...how convenient for the powers that be with all their fema coffins lined up....seems we are doomed one way or another....cuz at the end of the day they can just gas us and say...look what that big bad mean comet did...they can kill billions and cnn will have the cover story...
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PostMon Dec 02, 2013 8:54 pm » by The57ironman


Toxic32 wrote:
Toxic32 wrote:Does the fact that a significant chunk of Ison survived the encounter with the sun mean it could pose a threat to us in anyway. I assume Ison lost a significant amount of mass during the flyby, with that in mind would it affect the predicted slingshot path around the sun. Smaller mass tighter the turn and faster speed? Maybe it could hit us if that was the case.

Looking at the video it didn't seem to follow the predicted path?



I just came across this...Very interesting.


http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a07_1385927086

.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Read more at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a07_1385 ... v12qmcp.99
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PostTue Dec 03, 2013 12:27 am » by *WillEase*



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NASA Goddard Published on Dec 2, 2013
After several days of continued observations, scientists continue to work to determine and to understand the fate of Comet ISON: There's no doubt that the comet shrank in size considerably as it rounded the sun and there's no doubt that something made it out on the other side to shoot back into space. The question remains as to whether the bright spot seen moving away from the sun was simply debris, or whether a small nucleus of the original ball of ice was still there. Regardless, it is likely that it is now only dust.
Comet ISON, which began its journey from the Oort Cloud some 3 million years ago, made its closest approach to the sun on Nov. 28, 2013. The comet was visible in instruments on NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, or STEREO, and the joint European Space Agency/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, via images called coronagraphs. Coronagraphs block out the sun and a considerable distance around it, in order to better observe the dim structures in the sun's atmosphere, the corona. As such, there was a period of several hours when the comet was obscured in these images, blocked from view along with the sun. During this period of time, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory could not see the comet, leading many scientists to surmise that the comet had disintegrated completely. However, something did reappear in SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs some time later -- though it was significantly less bright.
Whether that spot of light was merely a cloud of dust that once was a comet, or if it still had a nucleus -- a small ball of its original, icy material -- intact, is still unclear. It seems likely that as of Dec. 1, there was no nucleus left. By monitoring its changes in brightness over time, scientists can estimate whether there's a nucleus or not, but our best chance at knowing for sure will be if the Hubble Space Telescope makes observations later in December 2013.
Regardless of its fate, Comet ISON did not disappoint researchers. Over the last year, observatories around the world and in space gathered one of the largest sets of comet observations of all time, which should provide fodder for study for years to come. The number of space-based, ground-based, and amateur observations were unprecedented, with twelve NASA space-based assets observing over the past year.
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PostTue Dec 03, 2013 12:58 am » by The57ironman


*WillEase* wrote:


Upload to Disclose.tv


NASA Goddard Published on Dec 2, 2013
After several days of continued observations, scientists continue to work to determine and to understand the fate of Comet ISON: There's no doubt that the comet shrank in size considerably as it rounded the sun and there's no doubt that something made it out on the other side to shoot back into space. The question remains as to whether the bright spot seen moving away from the sun was simply debris, or whether a small nucleus of the original ball of ice was still there. Regardless, it is likely that it is now only dust.
Comet ISON, which began its journey from the Oort Cloud some 3 million years ago, made its closest approach to the sun on Nov. 28, 2013. The comet was visible in instruments on NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, or STEREO, and the joint European Space Agency/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, or SOHO, via images called coronagraphs. Coronagraphs block out the sun and a considerable distance around it, in order to better observe the dim structures in the sun's atmosphere, the corona. As such, there was a period of several hours when the comet was obscured in these images, blocked from view along with the sun. During this period of time, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory could not see the comet, leading many scientists to surmise that the comet had disintegrated completely. However, something did reappear in SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs some time later -- though it was significantly less bright.
Whether that spot of light was merely a cloud of dust that once was a comet, or if it still had a nucleus -- a small ball of its original, icy material -- intact, is still unclear. It seems likely that as of Dec. 1, there was no nucleus left. By monitoring its changes in brightness over time, scientists can estimate whether there's a nucleus or not, but our best chance at knowing for sure will be if the Hubble Space Telescope makes observations later in December 2013.
Regardless of its fate, Comet ISON did not disappoint researchers. Over the last year, observatories around the world and in space gathered one of the largest sets of comet observations of all time, which should provide fodder for study for years to come. The number of space-based, ground-based, and amateur observations were unprecedented, with twelve NASA space-based assets observing over the past year.

.

yay NASA....those stereo ahead images are awesome.. :clapper:

...i guess i have to appreciate where my tax dollars have gone... :mrcool:

.

great post willie'.... :cheers:

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PostTue Dec 03, 2013 4:02 am » by Skydog


3 million years seems like a long time to just burn up like that,I would imagine the bits and pieces will settle at some point maybe on a rock like this and start all this hoo-har over again,maybe on this one once we've f'd it good and proper this time around.It's impossible to know the mechanics of it all but just recently i've been thinking most things happen for a reason,and aliens aside,it could be an event like this that got us all here in the first place.

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PostTue Dec 03, 2013 4:11 am » by The57ironman


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PostWed Dec 04, 2013 12:36 am » by Chronicnerd


Chronicnerd wrote:
Chronicnerd wrote:Hey Shaggie,
Will get to your questions sometime tomorrow.

As for the size, currently my personal opinion is that Ison had fragmented back when it had an explosion occur. The fragments were kept together by the heavily ionized fields prior to them being stripped from the flare. Once that happened, they started drifting apart, which in turn makes the nucleus appear to be much larger than it was when it first entered the system. I could be wrong on this, but the newer images are showing what looks like several large chunks floating in the same general direction.

This is potentially good because the fragments could end up vaporizing during its closest transit around the sun, but could be bad if the larger chunks make it and end up shooting out in more unexpected directions.

I will look over your questions in the AM and answer them as best as I can.

However, I would have to say for now it looks like the larger coma was due to drifting chunks that were causing a wider diameter of the coma...as some have made silly calculations that its nucleus is several thousand miles in diameter...which...my bet is on fragmentation and drifting chunks.


I am willing to bet that it still fragmented prior to its approach which explains the rapid expansion of the coma. This also explains the rapid depletion...and what we are looking at from this point forward is the larger remaining chunk(s) that didn't melt.

Still doesn't mean we won't see it around dec 3rd-forward...just it was greatly reduced in size....

:sunny:



Among experts, a consensus is building that the comet broke apart shortly before perihelion (closest approach to the sun).

Source: http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2013

I didn't really take the time to find the very few blurbs about the "explosion" that was detected on/inside Ison prior to perihelion, but I do remember reading about it somewhere...which would explain why it became fragmented...

The drifting fragments would explain the abnormally large coma (for its initial estimated size), the rapid decay of the coma due to the already drifting fragments as it entered its perihelion ( large coma, weak strength ), and the almost complete destruction of the drifting fragments once the coma was stripped of its ionized field (i.e. full brunt of solar radiation hitting the surface of the fragments).

So..there we have it...fragmented (due to a minor explosion detected prior to it entering the SOHO field of view)...irregularly large coma from the drifting fragments still spewing dust...and now nothing more than small boulders/rocks and dust slinging in a generally similar vector away from our system/sun.

G'Night Mr. Ison...

:sleep:

So...


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