I know you are always watching the flares and I have posted about the Earth's magnetic field quite a bit, over the past year, and how we can start to expect to see more energetic impacts as the dual north and south magnetic poles continue to drift.
August 21st through the 23rd (thus far) has produced a "relatively" steady series of M-Class flares from sunspot AR2403. If you look at the Earth's "collective" magnetic north pole's motion in the above linked image, you will notice that between 2015 of March and towards the end of 2015 July the outward drift looks like it is slowing down. However, right at the end of July (21st is last measurement) you will see it is starting to head further away. My current guess is that as Earth approaches the winter solstice, the Sun is getting closer to the end of a "mini-solar cycle" which always results in a slight adjustment of its fields.
The end result? I am banking on a *several day* high K-Index starting around August 24th through August 28th. It should have high spikes that trail with a 9-12 hour lower K-Index and should reflect the *six M-class* flares that occurred between the 21st and 23rd. If my "guesstimates" are correct, we should see some abnormally higher K-index ranges...where a typical M-1 class flare about 4 to 8 years ago would yield a 5 to 6 K-Index...we should see something like a 7+ K-index with a potential to get close to a 9 sometime between the 27th and 28th.
With all of the tropical storms in both the Pacific and Atlantic, we could also see a dramatic increase in their strength if the impacts hit over either ocean...so that will be something to watch for starting around the 26th to around the 30th.
Just a heads up... high possibility of some stormy weather (both solar and tropical) this coming up week.