Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

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Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Hashtoker » Sat Sep 12, 2009 3:14 am

Found another nova video, don't know how to embedd this one though... ... 50-04.html
only 40secs long basically says thats how they found the USS Scorpion (a bit on the ship ... ssn589.htm ).
Also found this article from USA Today in 2006
Internet types love sweeping ideas that come in the form of book titles that morph into catchphrases that can be dropped like little bombs into conversations to show how smart they are.

"Well, you know, his company was vulnerable to The Innovator's Dilemma, especially because he didn't have a World Is Flat strategy, although he could've seen it coming if he'd tapped into a Wisdom of Crowds approach."

This is at its most grating when said with a Thurston Howell III accent.

Anyway, the concept of "the wisdom of crowds" — the title of a popular 2004 book by James Surowiecki — is particularly hot among tech companies right now. Yet in the past week, the concept has run into a couple of potholes. One is a rhubarb at Internet darling; the other, the U.K. government's case of the hijacked wiki.

Both have people wondering if crowds are really all that wise, and what conditions have to exist to make them wise. Why is it that some crowds seem smart, while others turn into ugly mobs?

At its most basic level, the wisdom of crowds — let's call it WOC, so I don't have to type as much — means that the aggregated thought and knowledge of thousands or millions of people can be smarter than trained individual experts.

The WOC has been around forever — it's what democratic elections try to tap into. But the Net takes it to a whole new level. "The Internet provides a mechanism to get lots of diverse opinions and aggregate it in a quick and cost-effective way," Surowiecki tells me.

So if a company can use the Net to tap the collected intelligence of its employees, the employees will make better decisions than the CEO. IBM, Google and others have tried this. Wikipedia, written and edited by tens of thousands of unpaid contributors, should be better than an encyclopedia written and edited by specialists. News sites such as Digg, which lets users vote stories to the front page, should surface the best stuff more effectively than professional editors.

Except it doesn't always work that way. Pointing specifically at Wikipedia, Lauren Weinstein of the People for Internet Responsibility says that the Net has propagated a "basic fallacy that a wisdom-of-crowds approach could ever work, even theoretically."

Which might be extreme. But clearly some of the WOC mechanisms in use today have shortcomings.

Take Digg. Founder Kevin Rose set it up with a simple premise: If you like a news item or blog post, you can "digg" it by voting for it. Items with the most votes move to the front of the home page. But cabals of users started working together to boost certain items. Digg became less about the WOC and more about the ambitions of 1,000 or so savvy members.

So last week, Rose changed the formula. Digg will use computer programs to try to devalue bloc voting and give more value to what appears to be independent thinking. Digg's regulars revolted, causing a big Web stink. But Surowiecki thinks the site will now be better.

"The thing that makes the wisdom of crowds work is lots of diverse opinions and independent judgments," Surowiecki says. "Digg acknowledged it wanted more diversity of input."

So WOC needs the right structure to work, something the U.K.'s Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) found out the hard way.

DEFRA decided to let the public help it write environmental contracts, so it posted one on the Net as a wiki. The idea of a wiki — such as Wikipedia — is that anyone can log on and add or change something. In the case of DEFRA's wiki, the public mutilated it. In one of the more printable alterations, someone changed "Who are the parties to the environmental contract" to "Where is the party for the environmental contract? Can I come? Will there be cake? Hooray!"

"These sorts of issues have permeated the Net," Weinstein says. "Part of the problem is ... it doesn't take a lot of people to cause such disruptions."

Wikis, as it turns out, are not so much tapping the WOC as they are works in constant progress. Depending on who last wrote something, at any one time the wiki might be good, or bad.

Despite hiccups, though, there's still a lot of enthusiasm for WOC.

Google, in its own way, is a WOC device. It analyzes links that millions of people put on websites to come up with the most relevant search results. The reputation system on eBay uses WOC to self-police its users.

One of the more intriguing WOC sites is Hollywood Stock Exchange, aka It has about 700,000 members who use pretend money to buy and sell the "stocks" of movies and stars. (Most widely held star stock: Johnny Depp.) These are basically bets on how well a movie will do or how a star's career will go. HSX now sells its results to movie studios because its forecasts are more accurate than the studios' internal forecasts.

There are other prediction market sites aimed at politics, sports and other sectors. And in 2003, if you remember, the Pentagon experimented with a prediction market for terrorist attacks. Actually, it was a market for world events, including where and how future terrorism would take place. If hundreds of thousands of people were in the market, betting on the likelihood of such events, the WOC would probably wind up making pretty accurate predictions.

But when word got out, people just heard "betting on terrorism" and had an emotional reaction. Senators denounced it. "This is just wrong!" barked then-senator Tom Daschle, a South Dakota Democrat. And the program was canned.

The thing is, it was a sound, smart WOC idea. "It went down in flames for reasons I don't think were good," Surowiecki says.

In other words, it ironically was shot down by a crowd acting unwisely. In this WOC arena, there still seems to be much to learn.

Source: ... owds_x.htm

Is this basically what that "web bot" thing is i see mentioned is - just a program that scans everything talked about online and finds some kind of average? :headscratch:
thewatcher wrote:...Thanks for your input hashtoker, a big :flop: to you... :cheers:

:cheers: :D

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Thewatcher » Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:11 pm

hashtoker wrote:Some "NOVA scienceNOW" vid i just found on the "Wisdom of the Crowds"

Upload to

This theory needs an indepth looking into if you ask me..Maybe that's why home advantage in sports is so important without us truly knowing why, what's that old cliche that still exists to this day,oh yes that's it ''We Learn Something New Every Day''....Thanks for your input hashtoker, a big :flop: to you... :cheers:

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Hashtoker » Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:06 pm

Some "NOVA scienceNOW" vid i just found on the "Wisdom of the Crowds"

Upload to

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Hashtoker » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:58 pm

thewatcher wrote:Thank you sir.. :cheers:
:cheers: no problem :wink:

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Thewatcher » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:53 pm

hashtoker wrote:

Upload to


Thank you sir.. :cheers: People will still say it's :bullshit: even though he has just spent an hour explaining it...For him to achieve this has taken over a year of studying from the past to the present,He even used scientists theories along with other methods to accomplish this task,which he has done..Still a skeptic i ask? :clapper:

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Hashtoker » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:49 pm

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Hashtoker » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:10 pm

Wow, i know which one of his explanations i want to believe...but thinking about something he said in the wednesday broadcast makes me think otherwise..
I hope someone does manage to get the clip up :flop:

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Thewatcher » Fri Sep 11, 2009 10:07 pm

Truly amazing , the show has just finished,the video will be posted soon and i tell you now it was no camera trick it was all about the power of the human mind as a group ,absolutely astounding and proves my point this guy is extra special can't wait for his next show as he is really starting to come out of his unique shell now.... :cheers: Derren brown like i said in an earlier post on here ''Theres more to this guy than meets the eye'' and i think he has just profoundly proved that.... :cheers: :owned:

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Thewatcher » Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:15 pm

LowSix wrote:
thewatcher wrote:
LowSix wrote:People who have supernatural powers likely
wouldnt go into television entertainment.

Just a thought.

And its far healthier to look at this with skeptical eyes,
than to run around saying "macical powers" im thinkin...
and getting mad that people are probably right by knowing
that ALL magic involves the feature of Gullibility..

Or else they would be playing that talent in something MUCH more lucrative.

No disrespect low but i have not run around saying ''magical powers'' and to say that ''people with supernatural powers wouldn't go into television entertainment'' is debateable but you did say ''just a thought''..I do respect you low as i have been reading many topics and posts of yours for months and you get to know a bit of a how a person thinks by doing this, but i'm slightly dissapionted with your reply as it still does not answer some of my questions i threw out for debate.. And believe me low i'm a major skeptic being a ''i'll believe it when i see it ''type of person but i have followed this guy from the start and it's obvious he holds back on many things..Like i said watch his ''Oracle Act'' and that will get you thinking more deeply about this very unusual guy... :cheers:

No disrespect taken, and i wasnt referring to you specifically running around saying magic..

But, the one thing i DO know about mentalists, and magicians,
is that the technique never ever ever matches the appearance of the technique.


The mentalists are the best at this of all of them..

And truly, in my theory on magicians/mentalists/ includes the probablility that if someone had ACTUAL powers, above and beyond the normal human, they would not perform parlour magic, they would become rich, powerful, and famous and buy an island in the carribean.. They would not exercise the power to make people go ohh..and ahhh.. They would either likely effect change on things and or groups of people, or simply use it to earn ungodly cash.

(benevolence and greed being two prime motivators of the human race)

Dont get me wrong, the BASIC shit some of these guys do stumps me, but ive learned, when i found out methods for stuff thats stumped me int he past, there is ALWAYS a 'trick' to the 'trick', and it never involves the trick youre watching.


Oh and i agree the dude is absolutely phenomenal at what he does...fairplay there.
I just dont think hes doing what we think hes doing..

Low that's more like the reply i expected from you thanks very much, i appreciate you took the time to give me more of an indepth personal view :cheers: Derren brown is on now telling us how he did it so i'm sure some kind member will post the video link to tonights show showing us how he did it,speak soon members... :flop:

Re: Derren Brown Has Just Predicted UK lotto Numbers Live..

Post by Towelie » Thu Sep 10, 2009 5:37 pm

I didnt see him perform this act but id assume its a basic time delay trick, the BBC would postpone broadcast for a few mins to enable this trick.
Funny as hell how some think its more than a trick though :lol: .