Romney Nomination in doubt – Brokered Convention likely

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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 11:25 pm » by Jet17


this is a trend that is certain to continue.

Ron has done nothing but use his campaign for grass roots support with little advertising, because the message he spreads is advertisement enough.

All these projected wins, and media rewarding the chosen candidates of how many they are likely to get is just completely awful to the point that every time they announce that romney gets x ammount they should just shut up now. because they have been shown to be wrong over and over and over again.

it's hard to call something news when they can't even be realistic about it, none the less report actual news, instead of blasting that Romney is now the chosen candidate.

I even see liberal news stations (the ones aimed at dems) saying that Romney is now they nominee...

I was reading blackstarnews a new station for African Americans, and they actually thought that because romney won the straw polls that he was now the nominee, I wrote that they were wrong and my comment disappeared several minutes later.

It's like WTF this is hardly far from over.

while Romney does have a gain in bound delegates from winner take all states, or split states, the unbound states are what is going to hurt him.

not to mention he WILL NOT reach the number he needs, that is unless the media trend continues to award delegates that aren't even chosen yet, and they completely ignore final results thus pushing romney for the GOP nominee. I could see something like that happening as sort of a "coup de tat" of reporting.

thing is everyone would believe it too, because they have no idea how this works, and they believe the media projections of delegate counts, so that is a very real possibility.

Truth is, Romney is winning because there were 4 other viable candidates according to republicans. he has been leading because of that, and now that the race is down to just 2 candidates, people assume that Paul is a losing bet, even though he isn't.

if a brokered convention comes, which it most likely will, this will all start over, all the conventions, everything, then the delegates will become unbound again, and since there is only 2 candidates instead of an initial what was it 8-9, guess who will get most of them?


Paul! because he knows how to summon support by speaking the truth on matters, and this will narrow down how people view the 2 remaining candidates. as it garners more focus on them.

It will also be harder for the media if a brokered convention happens, to ignore delegate results, as it would start from square one. instead of let's focus on delegates halfway through the race, like they did when Paul won the Dominican Republic but yet they gave it to Romney anyways because suddenly delegates were important over the straw polls. :roll:
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 11:31 pm » by Jet17


Also Iowa is the PERFECT example of just how easily people are mislead.

First Romney won

Then Santorum


Then what happens? Paul takes most of the delegates which means he won anyways! LOL!


got to love it!
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 11:50 pm » by Jet17


oh, and hoo haaa cherry soda!
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PostFri Apr 27, 2012 11:53 pm » by Bleever


Jet17 wrote:this is a trend that is certain to continue.

Ron has done nothing but use his campaign for grass roots support with little advertising, because the message he spreads is advertisement enough.

All these projected wins, and media rewarding the chosen candidates of how many they are likely to get is just completely awful to the point that every time they announce that romney gets x ammount they should just shut up now. because they have been shown to be wrong over and over and over again.

it's hard to call something news when they can't even be realistic about it, none the less report actual news, instead of blasting that Romney is now the chosen candidate.

I even see liberal news stations (the ones aimed at dems) saying that Romney is now they nominee...

I was reading blackstarnews a new station for African Americans, and they actually thought that because romney won the straw polls that he was now the nominee, I wrote that they were wrong and my comment disappeared several minutes later.

It's like WTF this is hardly far from over.

while Romney does have a gain in bound delegates from winner take all states, or split states, the unbound states are what is going to hurt him.

not to mention he WILL NOT reach the number he needs, that is unless the media trend continues to award delegates that aren't even chosen yet, and they completely ignore final results thus pushing romney for the GOP nominee. I could see something like that happening as sort of a "coup de tat" of reporting.

thing is everyone would believe it too, because they have no idea how this works, and they believe the media projections of delegate counts, so that is a very real possibility.

Truth is, Romney is winning because there were 4 other viable candidates according to republicans. he has been leading because of that, and now that the race is down to just 2 candidates, people assume that Paul is a losing bet, even though he isn't.

if a brokered convention comes, which it most likely will, this will all start over, all the conventions, everything, then the delegates will become unbound again, and since there is only 2 candidates instead of an initial what was it 8-9, guess who will get most of them?


Paul! because he knows how to summon support by speaking the truth on matters, and this will narrow down how people view the 2 remaining candidates. as it garners more focus on them.

It will also be harder for the media if a brokered convention happens, to ignore delegate results, as it would start from square one. instead of let's focus on delegates halfway through the race, like they did when Paul won the Dominican Republic but yet they gave it to Romney anyways because suddenly delegates were important over the straw polls. :roll:


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PostSat Apr 28, 2012 12:47 am » by Hurtswhenipee


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Good comments Epic Jet
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PostSat Apr 28, 2012 9:47 pm » by Will69ease


Just a reminder, the scenario presented in this thread is provided that Mitt Romney doesn't obtain the 1144 delegates before the convention here in Tampa.
I keep seeing thread after thread claiming that the delegate counts that we all see are "only projections" and that in reality they are wildly different.

Well, just to set the record straight, I'm going to share a source that is kind enough to tabulate "soft" and "hard" counts for delegates. The "soft" count is the estimates and the "hard" count are those that are bound by law or party rule to vote for a candidate.

Without further ado...I present to you...the current (as of 4/27/2012) the "real" delegate counts.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

As we can see here, the "projected" delegate counts and the "real" delegate counts really aren't that far off.

In bound delegates, Romney is only short 420 delegates of clinching the nomination. In the upcoming primaries, there are 770 delegates up for grabs. There are also 307 delegates that are still uncommitted from previous primaries due to the states not having their conventions yet.

So out of 1077 delegates that are still unbound...Romney needs around 40% of them. Most of the upcoming primaries are in fact primaries and not caucuses...and most of them are now winner take all contests. California (winner take all) and Texas alone are 327 delegates.

For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates. That means that out of the 1077 remaining, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.

So let's see what Ron Paul would have to do to force a second round of voting at the convention. To prevent Romney from getting the 1144 bound delegates at the convention, Ron Paul is going to have to win at least 658 of the remaining unbound delegates...that is 61% of the delegates that are still unbound. For someone who has been averaging around 10%-20% in the previous primaries...I see this as an almost impossible task for Ron Paul.


So there are the real delegate counts...everything points to Romney being the nominee...he only needs 40% of the remaining unbound delegates...something that he should easily be able to get. There is a good chance this race will be over on June 5th when CA, NJ, NM, and SD have their primaries.

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PostSat Apr 28, 2012 10:11 pm » by Hurtswhenipee


Will69ease wrote:Just a reminder, the scenario presented in this thread is provided that Mitt Romney doesn't obtain the 1144 delegates before the convention here in Tampa.
I keep seeing thread after thread claiming that the delegate counts that we all see are "only projections" and that in reality they are wildly different.

Well, just to set the record straight, I'm going to share a source that is kind enough to tabulate "soft" and "hard" counts for delegates. The "soft" count is the estimates and the "hard" count are those that are bound by law or party rule to vote for a candidate.

Without further ado...I present to you...the current (as of 4/27/2012) the "real" delegate counts.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

As we can see here, the "projected" delegate counts and the "real" delegate counts really aren't that far off.

In bound delegates, Romney is only short 420 delegates of clinching the nomination. In the upcoming primaries, there are 770 delegates up for grabs. There are also 307 delegates that are still uncommitted from previous primaries due to the states not having their conventions yet.

So out of 1077 delegates that are still unbound...Romney needs around 40% of them. Most of the upcoming primaries are in fact primaries and not caucuses...and most of them are now winner take all contests. California (winner take all) and Texas alone are 327 delegates.

For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates. That means that out of the 1077 remaining, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.

So let's see what Ron Paul would have to do to force a second round of voting at the convention. To prevent Romney from getting the 1144 bound delegates at the convention, Ron Paul is going to have to win at least 658 of the remaining unbound delegates...that is 61% of the delegates that are still unbound. For someone who has been averaging around 10%-20% in the previous primaries...I see this as an almost impossible task for Ron Paul.


So there are the real delegate counts...everything points to Romney being the nominee...he only needs 40% of the remaining unbound delegates...something that he should easily be able to get. There is a good chance this race will be over on June 5th when CA, NJ, NM, and SD have their primaries.


For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates. That means that out of the 1077 remaining, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.


I would like to change that last sentence to "America's only hope"
The hope is for neither canidate to reach 1144 and have a Brokered convention. Note that Rick S. pulling out will help Ron Paul because of all the people that are turned off by Mitt's big government big spending ideals will support RP. IMHO (unless you let the media select your president)
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PostSat Apr 28, 2012 11:10 pm » by Opalserpent


I don't think that anything will help our favourite Ron Paul now.

George Soros who own the spanish company SCYTL has the power to pick the next president now.

SCYTL as you probably know will be counting the votes in spain so democracy is going to be taking

a back seat as usual.

I know that we Australians would not be impressed if a foreign country was counting our votes.

What a joke your democracy is. :alien51:
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PostSat Apr 28, 2012 11:35 pm » by Seahawk


Yeah. Thanks. :flop:


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PostSat Apr 28, 2012 11:43 pm » by Will69ease


Hurtswhenipee wrote:
Will69ease wrote:Just a reminder, the scenario presented in this thread is provided that Mitt Romney doesn't obtain the 1144 delegates before the convention here in Tampa.
I keep seeing thread after thread claiming that the delegate counts that we all see are "only projections" and that in reality they are wildly different.

Well, just to set the record straight, I'm going to share a source that is kind enough to tabulate "soft" and "hard" counts for delegates. The "soft" count is the estimates and the "hard" count are those that are bound by law or party rule to vote for a candidate.

Without further ado...I present to you...the current (as of 4/27/2012) the "real" delegate counts.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

As we can see here, the "projected" delegate counts and the "real" delegate counts really aren't that far off.

In bound delegates, Romney is only short 420 delegates of clinching the nomination. In the upcoming primaries, there are 770 delegates up for grabs. There are also 307 delegates that are still uncommitted from previous primaries due to the states not having their conventions yet.

So out of 1077 delegates that are still unbound...Romney needs around 40% of them. Most of the upcoming primaries are in fact primaries and not caucuses...and most of them are now winner take all contests. California (winner take all) and Texas alone are 327 delegates.

For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates. That means that out of the 1077 remaining, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.

So let's see what Ron Paul would have to do to force a second round of voting at the convention. To prevent Romney from getting the 1144 bound delegates at the convention, Ron Paul is going to have to win at least 658 of the remaining unbound delegates...that is 61% of the delegates that are still unbound. For someone who has been averaging around 10%-20% in the previous primaries...I see this as an almost impossible task for Ron Paul.


So there are the real delegate counts...everything points to Romney being the nominee...he only needs 40% of the remaining unbound delegates...something that he should easily be able to get. There is a good chance this race will be over on June 5th when CA, NJ, NM, and SD have their primaries.


For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates. That means that out of the 1077 remaining, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.


I would like to change that last sentence to "America's only hope"
The hope is for neither canidate to reach 1144 and have a Brokered convention. Note that Rick S. pulling out will help Ron Paul because of all the people that are turned off by Mitt's big government big spending ideals will support RP. IMHO (unless you let the media select your president)

Time will tell. If Paul runs on a third ticket or a brokered convention...either way would be fine with me.
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