Ron Paul and reality - Minnesota

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PostThu Feb 09, 2012 12:25 pm » by Rydher


I'm surprised no one brought it up on here but even the most ardent Ron Paul supporter knows he isn't going to actually win any state. His only shot is to have a split convention and have delegates flip.

I mean, if he couldn't win Minnesota. Where can he win? Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken for gods sake. I posted this elsewhere and I'll repost this scuttlebutt here.

A prominent friend told me some weeks ago that he noticed an odd thing. In his state, several people who have been successful in getting themselves known as very probably Mitt Romney delegates for the Republican National Convention are also his supporters. And they are not just my friends’ supporters, they are also long time staunch Ron Paul supporters.

Why then would they, long time staunch Ron Paul supporters, align this year with Mitt Romney? He made calls and talked to friends in other states. All of them saw the same thing happening — long time Dr. Paul supporters working to become delegates to the convention pledging to support Mitt Romney and others.

If the field stays fractured at this level, with only a few people, but each getting delegates enough to prevent the front runner from an outright majority, there will be a second vote at the Republican National Convention.

Delegates are only locked in for their candidate during the first vote. After the first vote, they can vote for whoever they want. So if Mitt Romney is unable to clear an outright majority on the first ballot, suddenly he could see some of his delegates turn on him — turn and go back to Ron Paul.

It is an ingenious strategy premised on a convention where no one gets majority support early. It plays well to a primary calendar where the delegates are first awarded proportionally. Who knows if it is a campaign strategy or just his volunteers, but the Paul campaign has been active now for four years trying to take over local parties.

It may pay off if the GOP doesn’t unite around a candidate soon.

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PostThu Feb 09, 2012 12:39 pm » by Hackjames


Hi sparkles, thanks for your upbeat "support" of the Paul campaign (again).

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PostThu Feb 09, 2012 12:52 pm » by SamueltheLion


aha
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PostThu Feb 09, 2012 1:02 pm » by Spock


It is a campaign strategy. I've heard his campaign manager openly admit this strategy on the news. That is why they skipped states intentionally.

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PostThu Feb 09, 2012 1:54 pm » by Icarus1


as much as i like ron paul i must agree with rydher , hes to honest , to clean , and dosent have the finincial clout or backing that the others do and is doomed to an unseccessful campaign, i wonder what hunter would have made of it all , shame hes not here to see it .
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PostFri Feb 10, 2012 4:19 pm » by Rydher


Brokered GOP convention becomes talk of town

Conservatives gathered in Washington this week are increasingly relishing the prospect that the Republican presidential nomination fight will extend for months, and could even lead to a brokered convention in Tampa, Fla., this summer.

Fueled by former Sen. Rick Santorum’s stunning three-state sweep in Tuesday’s three primaries and caucuses, those at the Conservative Political Action Conference — the country’s largest annual gathering of right-leaning activists — said the chances for a stalemate in the delegate count grow with every stumble by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“For the first time in a while, there is actually at this point a reasonable chance that the nomination could come down to a floor fight,” said Jeffrey M. Frederick, former Virginia Republican Party chairman.

The speculation even made it onto the dais at CPAC when Ralph Reed, founder of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, said during a panel discussion that 2012 could make modern political history.

“I would have said that the day of the convention deciding the nomination was over and was settled by the rise of the primary,” Mr. Reed told the audience. “I’m not sure that will be the case in 2012.”

Three of the four Republicans still vying for the party’s presidential nomination — everyone but Rep. Ron Paul of Texas — will speak to CPAC on Friday, hoping to win the hearts of the conservative activists who power much of the Republican Party.

The prospect of a drawn-out nomination process is a key motivator for Mr. Paul, Mr. Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, all of whom are trying to keep the front-running Mr. Romney from securing the 1,144 delegates he needs to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot.

Many conservatives have been slow to warm to Mr. Romney because of his evolving positions on abortion and his Massachusetts health care law, which requires state residents to purchase insurance. As a result, they have been torn in many ways between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich — and the longer contest gives them more time to evaluate and choose among the candidates in the field.

Mr. Romney tried to erase any of those lingering doubts by courting conservatives during a private meeting here Thursday.

The last convention when the outcome was in any doubt whatsoever was 1976, but Republicans structured their rules this year to make the process move slower and let candidates earn delegates even when they don’t win states. Under the new rules, contests held before April are supposed to award delegates on a proportional basis, as opposed to the winner-take-all fashion that governed many past races and that tended to wrap things up quickly.

“It is at least possible, because the system has changed considerably, that no one will have a majority at the time the convention convenes, and we might have a multi-ballot convention,” said Morton C. Blackwell, a National Republican Committee member from Virginia.

The arcane system for selecting a nominee also could benefit Mr. Paul, a 12-term congressman whose biggest strength is the dedication of his supporters.

In states that hold caucuses, Mr. Paul’s fans are more likely to ask to be delegates to district and state conventions, which is often where the delegates to the national nominating convention are decided. That means that even when he doesn’t win a majority of votes in a precinct’s caucus, his supporters are more likely to show up in later rounds when the votes count.

After the caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota on Tuesday, John Tate, Mr. Paul’s campaign manager, said the campaign is confident in “gaining a much larger share of delegates than even our impressive showing yesterday indicates.”

“This race, after all, is about delegates, not about beauty contests,” he said, pointing to three Colorado counties where Mr. Paul lost the popular vote, but came away with more delegates to the eventual regional conventions than anyone else. “We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well.”

Mr. Paul’s son, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, said Thursday at CPAC that his father’s supporters know how to work the system for maximum benefit.

“I think they learned about it in 2008, and I think a lot of them show up and a lot of them stay at the caucus until the bitter end to try and get appointed as delegates,” he said.

The senator said the hunt for delegates was part of the reason his father was skipping CPAC, where he has won the straw poll two years in a row. The candidate is campaigning in Maine, which is holding caucuses all week and which will announce results Saturday.


The new rules also punish states that held their contests too early, such as Florida, which will lose half its delegates to the national convention.

According to Mr. Blackwell, Florida’s early primary date means it also might be allowed to award its delegates in a winner-take-all fashion, as the state party had called for and the method that is reflected in national delegate-race counts showing Mr. Romney in the lead.

Mr. Blackwell said he, for one, would support a move to allocate those delegates proportionally, which would eat into Mr. Romney’s current lead and would boost Mr. Gingrich.

“Unless Mitt Romney has a big majority, in which case as the presumptive nominee he can get what he wants out of the preliminary activities at the convention, then the Florida delegation of 50 will be, according to the rules, allocated some way proportionately,” Mr. Blackwell said

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PostFri Feb 10, 2012 6:12 pm » by Bleever


rydher wrote:I'm surprised no one brought it up on here but even the most ardent Ron Paul supporter knows he isn't going to actually win any state. His only shot is to have a split convention and have delegates flip.

I mean, if he couldn't win Minnesota. Where can he win? Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken for gods sake. I posted this elsewhere and I'll repost this scuttlebutt here.

A prominent friend told me some weeks ago that he noticed an odd thing. In his state, several people who have been successful in getting themselves known as very probably Mitt Romney delegates for the Republican National Convention are also his supporters. And they are not just my friends’ supporters, they are also long time staunch Ron Paul supporters.

Why then would they, long time staunch Ron Paul supporters, align this year with Mitt Romney? He made calls and talked to friends in other states. All of them saw the same thing happening — long time Dr. Paul supporters working to become delegates to the convention pledging to support Mitt Romney and others.

If the field stays fractured at this level, with only a few people, but each getting delegates enough to prevent the front runner from an outright majority, there will be a second vote at the Republican National Convention.

Delegates are only locked in for their candidate during the first vote. After the first vote, they can vote for whoever they want. So if Mitt Romney is unable to clear an outright majority on the first ballot, suddenly he could see some of his delegates turn on him — turn and go back to Ron Paul.

It is an ingenious strategy premised on a convention where no one gets majority support early. It plays well to a primary calendar where the delegates are first awarded proportionally. Who knows if it is a campaign strategy or just his volunteers, but the Paul campaign has been active now for four years trying to take over local parties.

It may pay off if the GOP doesn’t unite around a candidate soon.


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PostFri Feb 10, 2012 6:48 pm » by domdabears


He's gonna win Maine tomorrow.

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PostSun Feb 12, 2012 1:32 am » by Rydher


If there is any doubt the establishment wants Romney to run versus Obama. All should be silent now. He wins Maine and CPAC?! What the fuck ever... :roll:

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PostSun Feb 12, 2012 5:47 am » by Hackjames


I'm leading an informal initiative to place large, armored robots in charge of all elections in this country. It's not like things could get much worse, or blatantly ridiculous.

Ask yourself this...what task could a human preform that a 30 meter automaton with infallible and incorruptible logic circuits could not preform much better?

I rest my case.
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