Space Storms Could Knock Out Power Grid!

[Kingz Profile]

Posted on: Wednesday, 14 April 2010, 06:30 CDT

Changes in the space environment caused by the Sun can lead to periods of bad “space weather”. As well as driving intense displays of the northern lights (or aurora borealis), this can generate unexpected currents in electricity distribution grids that could lead to blackouts and damage to valuable infrastructure with potentially high cost to the global economy.

Now a team of British scientists at Lancaster University and the British Geological Survey (BGS) in Edinburgh have developed a new model that shows the widespread impact inclement space weather could have on the UK. On Wednesday April 14th, team member Katie Turnbull will present the results at the RAS National Astronomy Meeting (NAM 2010) in Glasgow.

Bad space weather can cause fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field (geomagnetic storms) that lead to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in power grids. These currents have previously been blamed for blackouts in Canada and Sweden and are suspected of damaging power transformers in countries at lower latitudes. Large GICs have even been recorded in Scotland.

To prevent future blackouts, understanding how GICs occur is vital. The model developed by the British team, the most sophisticated yet developed, takes magnetic field measurements from all over the UK and combines them with the BGS’s 3D model of how the ground beneath the UK conducts electricity, in order to estimate the currents induced at over 250 locations in the high voltage national grid.

The new work provides further evidence that the size of the unwanted current depends not only on the severity of the geomagnetic storm but also on the configuration of the power grid and the direction and fluctuation speed of the electric fields produced. For many years, it was thought that only countries located at high latitudes (near to the Earth’s magnetic poles) were at risk, but this is now known not to be the case. While the basic physics that links solar activity to our electricity grids is broadly understood, the interaction between natural and man-made systems makes it hard to quantity the risks.

Results to be presented at the conference will compare simulated GICs in the UK grid model with those actually measured during a geomagnetic storm in February 2003. The simulated and measured currents are similar, but the model suggests that high currents are likely to be induced at several locations in the grid where GICs were not being monitored by the power industry at the time.

Although in this case no damage was caused, the scientists plan to use the model to learn how the UK grid might respond to possible future space weather events. Damaged transformers are not cheaply or easily replaced and some scientists and engineers are concerned that a major disturbance, like the severe magnetic storm that followed the solar flare observed by English astronomer Richard Carrington on the morning of 1st September 1859, could interrupt the worldwide electricity supply network by simultaneously disabling hundreds of transformers.

Known as the Carrington flare, this was the first flare ever observed and the storms around that time were the first recognized space weather events. In a related presentation on Wednesday, Ellen Clarke and colleagues at BGS and co-workers at the British Antarctic Survey and the University of Otago in New Zealand have estimated the strength of the solar flare witnessed by Carrington.

They correlated recent flares of known X-ray strength against the related magnetic variation, or ‘solar flare effect’, which is seen in geomagnetic records. The team then used this relationship with the measured Carrington ‘solar flare effect’, recovered from the 150 year old geomagnetic recordings made at Greenwich and Kew observatories and now held in the BGS archives in Edinburgh. They estimate that the Carrington flare must have been about twice as large (in X-ray flux) as the flare that preceded the largest geomagnetic storm of the last 10 years and that affected the Swedish power grid.

150 years ago the effect of GICs was limited to causing chaos in the telegraph network, but a storm like this would today have a wider impact. The US National Academies estimate the cost of such a future severe geomagnetic storm scenario hitting the USA to be 1-2 trillion dollars in the first year. Depending on the damage, they believe that full recovery could then take 4-10 years.

Lancaster University scientist and team member Dr Jim Wild stresses the wider importance of the group’s new research. “The science is still in a relatively early stage and we're only just starting to understand the interplay between complex natural and manmade systems”.

BGS Geomagnetism team leader Dr Alan Thomson added “a major objective is to shed light on the impact of both everyday and extreme space weather on our technologies and therefore to be better aware of the risk”.

“Research in this area spans space science and geophysics – we hope that this kind of multi-disciplinary science will be a priority for the UK’s newly-launched Space Agency” added Dr Wild.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1849 ... ower_grid/

Cosmic Journeys: Attack of the Sun

[Kingz Profile]

hahhh, that's very interesting ...

... until this morning, I noticed that the warnings have disappeared from the website of NASA:
http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/sppb/ed ... former.gif and
http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/sppb/ed ... /mag6.html are moved or deleted !

... has anyone saved the pages?

post216174.html#p216174

OMG is this a joke > that is some weird stuff aladin...
I wonder what all this means

Here are some new pics from Spaceweather.com made by Dutch amateur astronomer:




Jo Dahlmans
Image taken:
Apr. 14, 2010
Location:
ulestraten, The Netherlands
Details:
A massive protuberance making it's way through space.. bad luck for the people in The Netherlands who had to work because by the time the workday ended the flame had all but faded. 120mm PST...DMK camera.

Updated: The eruption hurled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME, movie) into space. The expanding cloud could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field around April 15th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of polar geomagnetic activity when the CME arrives.
http://spaceweather.com/

Only a matter of time for a big one to hit Earth

[Peaceonearth Profile]

Guys, scientists seem to have surrendered!

Can you imagine? Netizens requested to spot solar storms to save the earth!!

Astronomers Want You to Help Spot Dangerous Solar Storms

http://www.popsci.com/technology/articl ... lar-storms

THIS IS THE BBC link to the same thing

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552471.stm

SO, THE SOLAR BUSINESS IS NO JOKE AND WE ARE IN FOR TROUBLE!!!

[Newearthman Profile Website]

When a conductor passes through a magnetic field at 90 degrees it induces a current in that conductor. The Earth is a giant conductor! Welcome to the electric universe, home of Tesla!

E=BLV
E=voltage
B=stength of magnetic field
L=length of conductor
V=velocity of conductor

[Anuki Profile]

http://www.spacew.com/gic/index.html

i read bout 2 years ago, this was gonna happen as we go towards 2012.

so for me, i believe this 'shit'....

who knows what more we can expect...



_______________________________________________

king anu

[Svaha Profile Website]

it is the "disturbed" sun - and not the hocus pokus to 2012 and all this Nibiru stuff!

I have repeatedly pointed out that the sun is disturbed - but it seems there seems to be no interest or no-one can understand.

( temporary image )
triggered-sunburst-phenomen-t14707-30.html?hilit=triggered

These disturbances were there last in 1859 - but because the earth had not much technology, there was relatively little damage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

This would take place today or tomorrow or in the future completely differently ...

The sun is not disturbed, it gives the direction that will lead to the end of this cycle and the beginning of a new one, just like it has done many cycles before.
Our sun or father sun is steered by the great central sun or grandfather sun, the black hole in the center of the universe.

[Svaha Profile Website]

What you call disturbed, I call purification.
What is the cause? I don't know what the first cause was, but the cause of the end of this circle / cycle was the birth of it, those two events are always linked together.
I looked at the pictures you posted and think your observations are correct, but they are not man made events.
The sun and it's workings are described in the Zodiac, 4 sectors / elements, 3 character types, 12 signs. ( Cotterell did some research on that : http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 764573655# )

What you observe now is not only the 'normal' cycle, but the end of a couple of big cycles, this is when Ophiuchus, the snake carrier, or the healer comes into play.
All this will play out the next hundred of years.

My best guess regarding events (when looking at the maya calendar) is that the sun will reverse it's magnetic field, increase radiation causing infertility and so on, ... before 2012, this because this cycle ends some 500 days before the end of the bigger cycle in 2012.
I can only guess this, not because I doubt the Mayas, but because I doubt the conversion to our present calendar.
On the other hand, when I look at it in a broad perspective, I see it is unfolding right now.

[Pindz Profile Website]

SPACE STORM DOESNT EXIST..... ITS ALL MADE UP BY NASA...

[Nickelson Profile]

SPACE STORM DOESNT EXIST..... ITS ALL MADE UP BY NASA...

OLD NEWS I GUESS

Severe Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts

January 21, 2009: Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?


Auroras over Blair, Nebraska, during a geomagnetic storm in May 2005. Photo credit: Mike Hollingshead/Spaceweather.com.

That's the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.

The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours:
IMAGE

According to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever. The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon. It makes economic sense—but not necessarily geomagnetic sense. Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging "cascade failures."
To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."

"The concept of interdependency," the report notes, "is evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage of electric power--and the inability to restart an electric generator without water on site."


What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: CLICK HERECredit: National Academy of Sciences.


The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.

"A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions," the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.


A web of interdependencies makes the modern economy especially sensitive to solar storms. Source: Dept. of Homeland Security.LARGER IMAGE

What's the solution? The report ends with a call for infrastructure designed to better withstand geomagnetic disturbances, improved GPS codes and frequencies, and improvements in space weather forecasting. Reliable forecasting is key. If utility and satellite operators know a storm is coming, they can take measures to reduce damage—e.g., disconnecting wires, shielding vulnerable electronics, powering down critical hardware. A few hours without power is better than a few weeks.

NASA has deployed a fleet of spacecraft to study the sun and its eruptions. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, ACE, Wind and others are on duty 24/7. NASA physicists use data from these missions to understand the underlying physics of flares and geomagnetic storms; personnel at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center use the findings, in turn, to hone their forecasts.

At the moment, no one knows when the next super solar storm will erupt. It could be 100 years away or just 100 days. It's something to think about the next time you flush.

Source:
NASA PINDZ

[Svaha Profile Website]

He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power.

I think we will not be able to build new ones.

There is also the effect of radiation, radiation that wiped out entire cultures (this seems to happen especially round the equator)

Maybe we will find out that free choice is limited at the end to choosing to follow nature or to keep resisting.