Syria has 70 nuclear capable missiles. WHat if...?

Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:50 am » by **Alienagent**

Syria got from Russia 72 Yakhont supersonic missiles around Dec 4 2011 - the parliamentary elections in Russia. The news went almost unnoticed around the frenzy of post-election fraud allegations and demonstrations for first time in post-Soviet Russia.

The fact however is that Yakhont http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-800_Oniks are the best (known) cruise missiles, nuclear capable, with ramjet engine and speed Mach 2.5. Israel is in range, even if not the entire territory, certainly the northern part.

What if Assad regime pressed by the international demands and deadline, decides it is now or never? Syria doesn't have a peace accord with Israel. The question is whether Syria got somehow nuclear weapons or not. Let remember the Israeli strike in Northern Syria of what is believed to be some nuclear center. Syrian authorities later demolished the site. Syria is also known to possess chemical weapons.

If Assad decides to divert attention from the growing crisis that endangers his power and life, he might probably choose to attack exactly Israel. He cannot witstand the response of Israel +USA, but what matters if he falls anyway. He is in the corner. The best solution is he resigns peacefully and allows ruling and opposition parties to find the way of reconciliation. But as we know of the dictators in Middle East (Saddam, Gaddafi) it just doesn't happen. The danger to export the tension abroad is the biggest one. Then he might hope of Iranian support. In one word, the big Middle Eastern war could start from Syria. And it would turn quickly to be worldwide confrontation (hope not war) should somehow Assad bomb Israel with nuclear weapon, even only one. We can't imagine the horror that will take over especially the Western societies, the standoff of superpowers, and the local conflicts like North and South Korea flaring in a matter of hours.

After all we are in 2012 aren't we? If we all are going to die by Nibiru...or saved by ET...or whatever scenario you prefer, then a WW3 prelude is quite possible to expect.

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:13 am » by **Nihilgeist**

You're not going to get any constructive thoughts on this subject.

Around here Syria and Assad are victims of US and/or NATO-UN-NWO bullying, and are a bastion or beacon of hope along with Russia and China in a world increasingly under the influence of Western Imperialism.

Even if Syria were to launch these weapons, the people around here would believe it was either instigated by Western powers thereby justified or launched by Western forces themselves and blamed on Syria as a 'false-flag attack, as everything else that has been credibly linked to the gutter nations and their dictators out there.

Enjoy! :hiho:

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:43 am » by **Alienagent**

thanks for your fast reply.

I would not be so certain Russia and/or China will jump to fight NATO at Day 1 if a real war between NATO and Syria and/or Iran breaks out.

I just analyze the situation, that's all. Including sources like RT.com and Ria Novosti that go differently than before, i.e. less supportive of what is commonly called by Western media Assad regime. In fact Assad has never been elected on the post, rather inherited his late father Hafez Assad. He was picked up from England where he was a doctor , and enthroned in Syria in a matter of days. The ruling military changed constitution to allow him to become president at younger than permitted age. Pretty much what we saw to happen in North Korean transition of generations. No one talks of any democratic principle here, rather of power grasp and succession in a form of ancient oriental monarchies. Sorry if offend any feelings.

To have Libyan scenario is too bad for all. Not the least, because Syria is on the flashpoint with Israel, and as I explained above, any major disaster in Syria will reflect in Israel and Hezbollah, probably Iran. And that means big Mideastern war, if not worse.

Pls, notice I do not take a position. If I take any, it is for a peaceful negotiation between all sides, as quickly as possible. Beyond that, I just analyze options of people and powers who seem prefer the battle field instead of negotiating table. And the nucear moment is dreadfully near to us all. So we just care, no matter where in the world.

Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:58 am » by **Alienagent**

Pls also notice the elemental logic that Russia cannot send just troops in Syria to defend anyone, even less to take side in internal conflict. Much was spoken of Russian ships in Tartus. But the ships came and go. Russia gave enough armament of Syria, but that cannot decide the internal power struggle. (and that is my concern as expressed above).

If we analyze from unbiased cold mind view what would Russia do in case of Western OR Arab and Turkish intervention. Russia will not be involved directly in the NATO battle, and that was declared by Lavrov when asked by journalist.

If Russia decides to get involved, that is a WW3 so to speak. Therefore Russia will care
1. to evacuate its own population from the big cities as Moscow in the days following the first nuclear explosions in the Middle East, whichever side uses them first no matter

2. Russia will prepare for a large scale war with USA and NATO, not defending Syria or Iran but defending itself and attacking its rival that is USA. Here I do agree with the Republican candidates, that in such situation Russia would indeed be N1 rival of USA. Simply because Russia has Officially some 14,500 nukes, almost 3 times the official number of USA (check FAS nuke tables). Here we do not talk about other hi-tech weaponry.

So should Russia decide to intervene in any Middle East conflict, that means to brace itself for a world conflict with all consequences for that, including retaliatory nuclear strikes that will level the main cities. It will be short but intense. I hope the world finds spiritual strength to avoid it.

Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:07 pm » by **Spock**

Rest assured if Syria did launch an attack on Israel, there would be people posting on this forum that it was a CIA/Mossad operated false flag, and George Bush was to blame from his command center in an urban Texas neighborhood.

Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:15 pm » by **Iamthatiam**

spock wrote:Rest assured if Syria did launch an attack on Israel, there would be people posting on this forum that it was a CIA/Mossad operated false flag, and George Bush was to blame from his command center in an urban Texas neighborhood.

I won't say it will not happen...But you know about the MAD there too, aye! They are far aware about it than us (Syrian, Iranian regimes)!

Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:45 pm » by **Nakchopoe**

iamthatiam wrote:
spock wrote:Rest assured if Syria did launch an attack on Israel, there would be people posting on this forum that it was a CIA/Mossad operated false flag, and George Bush was to blame from his command center in an urban Texas neighborhood.

I won't say it will not happen...But you know about the MAD there too, aye! They are far aware about it than us (Syrian, Iranian regimes)!

Yep, MAD keeps the madmen in check! :flop:

Sat Apr 07, 2012 1:52 pm » by **Cosmine**

The real question is,are the army officers stupid enough to actualy press the "red button...don't think anyone want to be held responsible to start the end of the world...
I don't remember the details but it happened in soviet union in the 80's the radars gone bizerk showing a mass united states nuclear attack of the soviet union...the officer in charge said let them do it...they gonna be dead too next month anyhow...

:cheers:

Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:11 pm » by **Nakchopoe**

cosmine wrote:The real question is,are the army officers stupid enough to actualy press the "red button...don't think anyone want to be held responsible to start the end of the world...
I don't remember the details but it happened in soviet union in the 80's the radars gone bizerk showing a mass united states nuclear attack of the soviet union...the officer in charge said let them do it...they gonna be dead too next month anyhow...

Thats what Mutual Assured Destruction stands for, indeed. :flop:

Sat Apr 07, 2012 2:20 pm » by **Icarus1**

cosmine wrote:The real question is,are the army officers stupid enough to actualy press the "red button...don't think anyone want to be held responsible to start the end of the world...
I don't remember the details but it happened in soviet union in the 80's the radars gone bizerk showing a mass united states nuclear attack of the soviet union...the officer in charge said let them do it...they gonna be dead too next month anyhow...

that man was a hero , he was called stanislav petrov

Stanislav Petrov
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov
Born c. 1939
Known for 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident
Military career
Allegiance Soviet Union
Service/branch Soviet Air Defence Forces
Rank Lieutenant colonel

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; born c. 1939) is a retired lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces. On September 26, 1983 he was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early warning system when the system reported a small launch from the United States. Petrov judged that the report was a false alarm.[1] This decision may have prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its Western allies. Investigation later confirmed that the satellite warning system had malfunctioned.[2]
Contents
[hide]

1 The Incident
1.1 Awards, commendations
2 See also
3 References
4 External links

[edit] The Incident

There are questions over the part Petrov's decision played in preventing nuclear war, because, according to the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation, nuclear retaliation is based on multiple sources that confirm an actual attack.[3] The incident, however, exposed a flaw in the Soviet early warning system. Petrov asserts that he was neither rewarded nor punished for his actions.[4]

Had Petrov reported incoming American missiles, his superiors might have launched an assault against the United States, precipitating a corresponding nuclear response from the United States. Petrov declared the system's indications a false alarm. Later, it was apparent that he was right: no missiles were approaching and the computer detection system was malfunctioning. It was subsequently determined that the false alarms had been created by a rare alignment of sunlight on high-altitude clouds and the satellites' Molniya orbits, an error later corrected by cross-referencing a geostationary satellite.[5]

Petrov later indicated the influences in this decision included: that he was informed a U.S. strike would be all-out, so five missiles seemed an illogical start,[1] that the launch detection system was new and, in his view, not yet wholly trustworthy, and that ground radars failed to pick up corroborative evidence, even after minutes of delay.[6]

Petrov underwent intense questioning by his superiors about his actions. Initially, he was praised for his decision.[1] Gen. Yury Votintsev, then commander of the Soviet Air Defense's Missile Defense Units, who was the first to hear Petrov's report of the incident (and the first to reveal it to the public in the 1990s), states that Petrov's "correct actions" were "duly noted".[1] Petrov himself states he was initially praised by Votintsev and was promised a reward,[1][7] but recalls that he was also reprimanded for improper filing of paperwork with the pretext he had not described the incident in the military diary.[7][8]

He received no reward. According to Petrov, this was because the incident and other bugs that were found in the missile detection system embarrassed his superiors and the influential scientists who were responsible for the system, so that if he had been officially rewarded, they would have had to be punished.[1][4][7][8] He was reassigned to a less sensitive post,[8] took early retirement (although he emphasizes that he was not "forced out" of the army, as the case is presented by some Western sources),[7] and suffered a nervous breakdown.[8]

The incident involving Petrov became known publicly in the 1990s following the publication of Gen. Votintsev's memoirs. Widespread media reports since then have increased public awareness of Petrov's actions.

There is occasionally some confusion as to precisely what Petrov's military role was in this incident. Petrov, as an individual, was not in a position where he could have single-handedly launched any of the Soviet missile arsenal. Instead Petrov's sole duty was to monitor satellite surveillance equipment and report missile attack warnings up the chain of command where, ultimately, the top Soviet leadership would have decided whether to launch a "retaliatory" attack against the West. Whether to launch an attack was not Petrov's decision to make. His role, however, was crucial in the process of making that decision.[9] According to Bruce Blair, a Cold War nuclear strategies expert and nuclear disarmament advocate, formerly with the Center for Defense Information, "The top leadership, given only a couple of minutes to decide, told that an attack had been launched, would make a decision to retaliate."[10]
[edit] Awards, commendations

Petrov is now a pensioner, spending his retirement in the town of Fryazino, Russia.[11] On May 21, 2004, the San Francisco-based Association of World Citizens gave Petrov its World Citizen Award along with a trophy and $1000 "in recognition of the part he played in averting a catastrophe."[12]

In January 2006, Petrov traveled to the United States where he was honored in a meeting at the United Nations in New York City. There the Association of World Citizens presented Petrov with a second special World Citizen Award.[13] The following day, Petrov met with American journalist Walter Cronkite at his CBS office in New York City. That interview, in addition to other highlights of Petrov's trip to the United States, are expected to be included in the documentary film The Man Who Saved the World.[12][dated info][14]

On the same day that Petrov was honored at the United Nations in New York City, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations issued a press release contending that a single individual would be incapable of starting or preventing a nuclear war, stating in part: "Under no circumstances a decision to use nuclear weapons could be made or even considered in the Soviet Union (Russia) or in the United States on the basis of data from a single source or a system. For this to happen, a confirmation is necessary from several systems: ground-based radars, early warning satellites, intelligence reports, etc."[3]

Petrov has said he does not regard himself as a hero for what he did that day. In an interview for the documentary film The Red Button and the Man Who Saved the World,[15] Petrov says, "All that happened didn't matter to me — it was my job. I was simply doing my job, and I was the right person at the right time, that's all. My late wife for 10 years knew nothing about it. 'So what did you do?' she asked me. I did nothing."

The false nuclear attack warning involving Stanislav Petrov, however, is cited by CIA analyst Peter Pry as "the single most dangerous incident of the early 1980s."