So they say there is a hole in our magnetosphere, and the sun is going to flip its north pole with its south pole. Each time it does this, the Sun has been known to shoot out "solar flares". The interesting part to note here is the timing of two events that might be part of the "miscalculation".

Spaceweather.com is a nifty site that tracks the sun's activity to see what our "solar space weather" created by the Sun will be like for the rest of us non-fireball masses orbiting in this region of space. It is like Earth's weather, but deals more in radiation and electromagnetic fields generated from the massive explosions we call "solar flares".

As an example, from sunspot 1024, we can see the affects that a solar flare has on our magnetosphere:

When you are done watching that, take a look at the period of time (you should be good at understanding waves if you have been following along) versus amount of solar flare activity chart below provided by NASA using the Hathaway algorythm:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
If you notice the sunspot cycles, you will quickly come to understand that come 2012-2013 we will be at our solar maximum. While the strength of this cycle is not expected to be stronger than the previous cycle, there are two issues at hand:

1.) Our sunspot activity has dropped off the charts (revisit spaceweather.com if you are unclear of this)

2.) Our earths mangetosphere is evidently weakening... yeah... getting less protective and more "open" to allow the nasty radiation our sun spurts out into our atmosphere. The current running hypothesis is that the amount of solar radiation damage we could incure come 2012 depends upon how much our magnetosphere changes in the next few years. In addition, the longer a sunspot takes to form, typically from history of data collected, the larger the flare will be...(see first video in this post).

Of course, if you dig a little bit, you can find an earlier article using the same data set, just not over the past 2.5 years, and we get a much different view of what the Hathaway model predicted (notice the above image shows solar cycle 23 being larger than cycle 24 and the below shows the opposite).

The real issue is to look at the estimated projected intensity...and then look at what the model shows now... of course...we need to understand this model takes into consideration PAST SUNSPOT ACTIVITY...so naturally if the sunspot activity almost completely shuts down over any long duration, then the next peak prediction should show a reduced intensity of the predicted solar cycle using this model...this does not mean that the "to-be-released" energy should be reduced...but it does mean that it is very likely that a smaller "spike" means "fewer" solar flares...which very well could mean each flare has more INTENSITY to them (the energy has to go somewhere).

While I am no expert, I think that the more people become aware of this possibility as well as the implications of this possibility coupled with future data I will post here that give an insight behind why our government is doing some of the things they are doing, then we might either disprove this concept (good) or prove this concept (bad) and either case we will at least know what is to come in order to be better equipped physically and mentally for the end result.

Enjoy,

Chronicnerd

Like a tank can go over timber but apply that energy with a sharp object and you can penatrate anything.

The above data looks wrong to me. If you have a look at the Nasa website it clearly say's the next solar cycle won't be as bad as the last one during the 2000 period, and I have to admit during that period not that much happened at all.

So it makes you think. Is this information out just to scare us???

Right now I will guarantee that nothing is going to happen during that year. All that is going to happen is alot of profit will be made, and people will be panicking over nothing.

Re: freedonofwill
You are absolutely right freedom. The NASA image, if you look at the link to the image from NASA's site I linked to above(had to as the image was too big to post directly here), you will see the same chart...but as I stated...they are taking data over 2.5 years and posting the projected next cycle...which is wrong because 2009 was one of the calmest solar cycles we have had in a very long time. Due to the way the algorithm works, if you take data that skews the projection and don't include the historical data for a long enough period of time...then you will get a chart like you are seeing from NASA's site.

While I don't claim to be an expert, I do claim to have a reasonable grasp on math as well as I actually have a diagnosed OCD personality that sort of makes me keep digging until I have a reasonable answer...otherwise I just sit and spin on the topic...sort of like having poison ivy...until you medicate the inflicted area it just bugs you to no end.

So, if you don't believe me that they are pushing out incorrect data... maybe you will believe Michio Kaku:

All I was doing was providing a portion of the "miscalculation" that is occurring right now and as such you won't find the "right" predicted solar cycle maximum on their site yet there are some people, such as Michio, that has been trying to get the word out in a friendly way without stepping on too many toes...

Kind of like how Obama said he would fundamental transform the USA...because we didn't really listen to what Obama was saying to the US...we now have what we now have in our government...likewise...Michio has come out publicly and said we are going to have one of the strongest solar cycles recorded in 2012 many times in 2009...the question really is...
"Are we going to listen to what is being said to us...or just stick our heads in the ground and not try to figure out what exactly he is trying to say to us?"

If you noticed smoke coming off of the roof of your neighbor's house (far from where any chimney was located on the roof), would you try to warn him of it or at least ring their doorbell and let them know? If your neighbor just looked at you and said "what...are you trying to scare me...?" would you get him to walk out a ways from his house and point to it and say "there...right there...smoke".... or would you just shrug your shoulders and go back to your home?

If you are referring to the wedges created in WWII for the tanks to push through the thick foliage/trees vs just a normal tank... yes.... similar to a water hose when you put your thumb over it...without your thumb the water flows easily and with not much force, but put your thumb over a portion of it and it jets out...although this is more like an air pressure tank that has a release valve that is "sticking"...the longer it sticks...the more pressure builds up.

oke check this:



A big new sunspot (circled) has burst onto the scene this morning. It appears to pose a threat for M-class solar flares. Image credit: SOHO/MDI

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?vie ... &year=2010




BIG NEW SUNSPOT: A big new sunspot is rapidly emerging in the sun's northern hemisphere. Rogerio Marcon sends this picture taken just hours ago from his backyard observatory in Campinas, Brasil:

The active region is crackling with solar flares, including an M2-class eruption at 1900 UT on Feb. 6th. Each of the spot's dark cores is about twice as wide as Earth, which makes it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Stay tuned for solar activity!

more images: from Pete Lawrence of Selsey, West Sussex, UK; from Geir Øye of Ørsta, Norway; from Robert Arnold of Isle of Skye, Scotland; from Keith Davies of Swansea, South Wales, United Kingdom;

http://spaceweather.com/swpod2010/06feb ... gp5k91muu0