COVID-19 is going to get worse, much worse
France announced its findings on antibody testing, and it is similar to the U.K. and Spain ones.
The last 4 antibody studies (Czech, U.K., Spain, and France) are NOT showing the infection rate, they are showing the IMMUNITY/RESISTANCE rate to the virus.
We all know by now that a big chunk of the infected people will not develop antibodies, or will develop the "wrong" kind (the shorter ones) or will develop antibodies, but not enough to be detected by tests, hence, not enough to grant immunity.
Most likely the asymptomatic infected people do not develop immunity/resistance, because their body is not affected enough (hence, they are asymptomatic) to develop antibodies / enough antibodies / the "right" antibodies.
We know that the asymptomatic makeup between 40% and 60% of the infected, which means that if around 5% in U.K., Spain and France developed antibodies, the real percentage of infected is actually between 7% and 8%, which is in the range of my model numbers.
Czech with 0.4% with antibodies actually has 0.7% infected rate, making it the least infected country in Europe (and among the least infected in the world).
Ok, so what is the bad news.
Well, first, China did lie about everything, BUT one thing: when the virus started.
If the findings of all those 4 studies are correct, it is virtually impossible for the virus to have been started before December 2019.
I could stretch this too late November, considering that, like any virus, it took some time to spread to a number that delivered enough serious cases to raise alarms.
Now, I am in no way defending China, as you all know. I hate CCP with all my guts.
But I don't see possible that China paid everyone to come up with studies that show a very low infection rate, which makes December as the month when this virus started, ESPECIALLY since those studies prove that the virus originated in China, and not somewhere else.
If the infection rate is indeed between 7-8%, worldwide, (ofc MOST countries are bellow that, and some above), while the immunity/resistance rate is about 60% of those infected, one of the 3 solutions I considered theoretically possible, is removed.
I am talking about cycling the lock-downs with relaxing, every 13 weeks, for 14 cycles in total, to reach a 70% herd immunity/resistance, because a vaccine is most likely (as I said many times) impossible to develop in the next 2 years, if not actually IMPOSSIBLE to develop at all.
The cycling solution, while theoretical, could have been chosen by the governments, in certain conditions. But those conditions are now gone.
We cannot do it in 13 weeks cycles, because in most countries are under 5% immunity/resistance, and it took about 5 months to get there, the cycles will already be too long to sustain.
This leaves only the other 2 options on the table, but the one that SHOULD have been implemented by now (a longer lock-down, until mid-June) is already dead in the water.
This leaves us with the WORST solution possible: shortening the lock-downs, expose the population to a higher infection rate > higher immunity/resistance rate, and ultimately go back to cycling, but this time dealing with fewer cycles, even if longer ones.
We need 70% herd immunity/resistance, and if only 5% are there after 4 months, we need to get MORE in a shorter time, so the next lock-down hits much later, giving us a longer breathing time before that.
After seeing how China reacted to this virus, virtually locking people down in their homes, and Western governments going almost Nazi on our asses, I now understand why.
They KNOW that this virus is not going to go away, they KNOW that there is no hope for a vaccine in time, or ever, they KNOW that the second wave is coming in fall...and because they KNOW all that, they also KNOW that when fall is coming, we are NOT going to make it without a HIGH number of people that developed immunity/resistance.
Which begs the question: HOW MANY PEOPLE DO THE GOVERNMENTS THINK THAT SHOULD BE IMMUNE/RESISTANT BEFORE FALL, IN ORDER TO MANAGE THE SECOND WAVE?
Statistically, the answer is simple: we need about 15%. So, 10% more in the next 4 months.
To put it in practice is almost impossible. But before I will explain why is almost impossible, and that it can go VERY WRONG, I want to underscore something that I keep saying since the beginning:
The ECONOMY is done, and there is no way to save it. And when I explain why it is almost impossible to put in practice an additional 10% immunity/resistance rate in the next 4 months, you'll see why the economy is done.
If we want an additional 10% in the next 4 months, the world-wide and nation-wide lock-downs CANNOT be back for the next 4 months.
What they chose to do, and it is already clear, is whack-a-mole lock-downs: a city here, a factory there, nurses homes permanent quarantine, severe travel restrictions, limited gathering, social distancing...basically a combination of the Swedish model with the Chinese model.
I am sure most of you already see the problem here, but if not, I will say it: the risk of NOT getting the additional 10% or going WAY above that is sky-high.
This is not a plan, that the governments work on. It is the last hurrah of humanity. It has to go PERFECTLY WELL, so the second wave hits as planned (in mid/late September-early October 2020), the new round of nation-wide lock-downs hits as planned (in October 2020), it will last as planned (until the Winter ends, so March 2021), and most importantly, it will NOT overload the hospitals (between now and mid-September), while IN THE SAME TIME keep the economy alive.
If what they plan goes SLIGHTLY in the wrong direction (being less or more of 10% of the aimed additional percentage of immune/resistant people), the lock-downs will either start much earlier then September, or we will enter the Winter season (with all the seasonal diseases) with an open-wide society to infection BUT with NOT ENOUGH immune/resistant people, so the hospitals will get absolutely unable to deal will ALL kind of patients (not only Covid-19), leading to deaths from the virus AND from not enough bed/ICU capacity for everyone else.
We NEED a break from lock-downs, and we need a significant one. We NEED it until Fall when the new nation-wide lock-downs will hit IF the plan goes perfect.
I personally don't see this plan (postponing the second wave till September, adding 10% more immune/resistant people, and the whack-a-mole lock-downs being so few that the economy will cope with) come to fruition.
Another big problem is that we might get the most of those aimed additional 10% much faster, as early as mid-June, which will absolutely trigger nation-wide lock-downs by July, and this will scrap the planned second wave to hit in September, which will scrap all the other parts of the plan.
But even if they manage to pull it off...a lock-down from October 2020 to March 2021 is going to put an end to an already comatose economy...unless a treatment is found by the end of this year.
I hope that they, the governments, have thought this through, and it will work as planned, buying them enough time to find a viable treatment.
We will see, very soon, if the plan works, because I believe that this is what the governments chose to be the path to deal with the pandemic.
Wishful thinking that this virus will weaken, were demolished by the antibody studies: very low rate of gaining immunity/resistance.
Wishful thinking that we will be able to cope with TWICE as many dead and ICU patients in the next 4 months, as we had in the last months...well, I hope to come true, but I am highly skeptical that we will, especially if they will be again clustered in certain areas.
Imagine Madrid or Lombardy with TWICE their previous numbers.
Imagine YOUR city or country with TWICE the current numbers.
I think many areas will going to get hit really really bad, even if most of the country you live in while having high numbers, won't be as bad.
There are so many things that can go wrong in the next 4 months, and looking at HOW EAGER everyone is opening back up, paired with the latest antibody studies and knowing that Fall and Winter will be really bad, for me at least, it became clear as day that the governments aim to raise the rate of immune/resistant people to around 15% until September.
It is going to be rough as hell, even if the plan works, and the coming winter will be HELL.
But if it goes wrong, which is almost certain (too many things have to go PERFECTLY, and I didn't even add the HUMAN factor in the equation), HELL will be here way before Winter.
We will see, in the next 30 days, if their plan works.