Pandemic research paper by the German government from 2012
This research paper was released by the German government in 2012.
It is about a simulated pandemic and its impact on Germany. It very much resembles what is currently unfolding with the coronavirus outbreak.
It is astonishing how precisely this applies to 2019-nCoV.
The part about the pandemic scenario starts on page 55 in the paper (see below).
The paper was translated via an online tool from German to English.
The risk analysis "Pandemic caused by Virus Modi-SARS" was carried out under the technical leadership of the Robert Koch Institute and with the participation of other federal authorities.
Here, too, a corresponding scenario was initially developed by the inter-agency working group. Subsequently, the probability of such a pandemic occurring and the extent of damage to be expected when it occurs was determined.
The scenario describes an extraordinary epidemic event based on the spread of a novel pathogen. The pathogen "Modi-SARS", which is hypothetical but has realistic properties, was used as the basis for this scenario. The choice of a SARS-like virus was made, among other things, against the background that the natural variant in 2003 quickly pushed very different health care systems to their limits. The past has already shown that pathogens with novel properties that trigger a serious epidemic event can suddenly appear (e.g. SARS coronavirus (CoV), H5N1 influenza virus, chikungunya virus, HIV).
Using simplified assumptions, the hypothetical course of a pandemic in Germany was modeled for this mode SARS virus, which is both nationally relevant and plausible. The scenario describes a worldwide spread of a hypothetical new virus originating in Asia, which is given the name Modi-SARS virus. Several people enter Germany before the authorities receive the first official warning from the WHO.
Among them are two infected persons, who contribute strongly to the initial spread of the infection in Germany through a combination of a large number of contacts and high infectivity. Although the measures provided for in the Infection Control Act and pandemic plans are being implemented quickly and effectively by the authorities and the health system, the rapid spread of the virus cannot be effectively halted due to the short interval between two infections.
When does the event happen?
The event begins in February in Asia, but its dimension/significance is only recognized there a few weeks later. In April the first identified Mode SARS case occurs in Germany. This point in time forms the starting point of the present scenario.
What events lead to this event?/What triggers the event?
The pathogen originates from Southeast Asia, where the pathogen found in wild animals was transmitted to humans via markets.