Russian scientists predict that a magnetic storm is approaching Earth on October 20 and will last for several days, reaching its highest intensity peak on October 25
Maybe there will be some nice aurora displays
This is an odd post.
So, geomagnetic storms can be caused by solar flares (with or without CME’s), Coronal Hole Streams, and cosmic (outside of our solar system) events (i.e. a supernova and the like).
Currently, the sun has one small sunspot AR 2776…
…which is relatively small and nothing “abnormal”.
Next, there is a coronal hole that will be spewing its stream towards earth on the 20th-21st of October but is relatively small and doesn’t appear to be that big of a deal (might invoke a G1 to possibly G2 geomagnetic storm).
Coronal hole is the lower left black spot just above the very large southern region coronal hole (which is never Earth facing).
Since this will only invoke no more than a G2 class storm (according to NASA and NOAA) it will be considered a “moderate” geomagnetic storm that might cause some power issues (not a very high chance). Really, you need to start worrying when it gets up to the G4-G5 class geomagnetic storms:
(see the geomagnetic storm scales in link above).
So, regarding current space weather conditions…there is nothing “scary” currently happening in the next few days (unless AR2776 like unleashes an M-X class flare which is highly unlikely).
The second odd thing about this post is that the second article was posted in June?
Was this just an informative post? Not sure what the Russian scientist was warning about, because there is nothing major about the current space weather conditions at this point in time (or if no more solar flares until the 20th-21st then nothing major at all).
This is just starting folks!
Better have your chit together. It could get rough.
Check out some of the posts @Ralos and I have up.
Quit a few.
Oh and todays post with the stickman pictogram found in hawaii.
Thanks for this post. Likely to be relative to the ongoing discussions.
there is nothing “scary” currently happening in the next few days
Mundane facts seem to have no place in this space. That said, the June flareup article seems to be lifted from somewhere else, since the “article” is dated August 2020 ( “explicaDOTco | 08-20”
Ive been watchin developments too.
Worst case predicted is we lose a few satilites.
Im curious to see if there are signs of increased earthquakes, or intensities following.
Sounds like yet another hoax.
Well, it always happens when you post there is no “there” there.
So, the AR2776 sunspot (not coronal hole which is still on track for the 20-21st of October) has doubled in size and now is upgraded to be capable of generating M to X class flares:
Of course, since this sunspot is turning towards an Earth aligned position if it were to generate an M to X class solar flare with the current coronal hole stream expecting to impact by the 20th to 21st…NOW we have a potentially “perfect storm” scenario as a CME typically takes 48-72 hours to travel from the Sun to Earth. This would mean that between most of today and part of tomorrow (18th-19th) if the sunspot flares an M-X class flare we could see a MUCH stronger geomagnetic storm. This is my “guess” of geomagnetic storm levels based on the flare strength (if one were to occur):
M1-M5: G3 to low G4
M5-X1: G4 to low G5
X5-and up: medium to high level G5
So…now there is a potential “THERE” there…we will have to watch the Sun over the next 32ish hours and hope it doesn’t generate a high level X class flare…that could be bad.
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