US intelligence shows Iran retains substantial missile capabilities

U.S. military intelligence assesses that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now partially or fully operational.

Classified assessments from early this month show Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz. Only three sites remain totally inaccessible. Iran can use mobile launchers inside the sites to move missiles or launch directly from facility pads.

Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, including ballistic and cruise missiles.

These findings directly contradict months of public statements from President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who claimed Iran’s military had been “decimated” and rendered “combat-ineffective for years to come.”

On March 9, Trump told CBS News that Iran’s “missiles are down to a scatter” and the country had “nothing left in a military sense.” On April 8, Hegseth declared Operation Epic Fury had “decimated Iran’s military.”

The intelligence, dated less than a month after that Pentagon news conference, reveals rapid Iranian recovery despite the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign.

The assessments underscore the dilemma Trump faces if the fragile month-old ceasefire collapses. The U.S. military has already depleted stocks of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors, and Precision Strike missiles.

Replenishing those stockpiles will take years. Lockheed Martin currently produces around 650 Patriot interceptors annually and plans to ramp up to 2,000, but industry capacity cannot scale quickly.

When U.S. forces struck Iran’s hardened missile facilities, commanders opted to seal entrances rather than destroy the sites due to limited bunker-buster munitions and the need to preserve stocks for potential wars with North Korea and China.